Legit or Nah? The Verdict on Fast Starts Around the NBA
You know how the 2017-18 NBA regular season hasn't been old enough for us to glean anything meaningful from its most fiery standouts?
Well, brace yourself: The time to purchase stock in what we're seeing is nigh.
Before officially accepting these fast starts as new normals, though, we first have to weed out what remains of the fleeting breakouts.
Some of the good vibes you're feeling are sustainable—or close to it. Superstar ascensions will last. Productive kiddies will continue to exceed expectations. Surprisingly improved teams will keep on keeping on. Noticeable improvements in one facet of the game will stick.
Other happy-go-lucky beginnings are still too good to be true. We should commend these teams and players for staying hot—or shockingly OK—well past opening night. But they just don't have the juice to tread water as they are for much longer.
To ensure this doesn't strictly turn into an Orlando Magic opus, we'll have a limit of one inclusion per team. In cases of overlap, the more impactful detonation gets priority. If a player is outshining the rise of his squad, the focus turns to him. Otherwise, the collective takes center stage.
Grab your wet blankets and pre-packaged rainbow confetti. Where we're going, we'll need both.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Raise your hand if you think the Los Angeles Lakers' 10th-place defense is for real.
(Waits for crickets to play.)
Didn't think so.
With the exception of a few switch-drunk lineups that are super fun to watch, the Lakers have neither the personnel nor experience to be an elite defensive squad. Knock yourself out if you believe they'll be better than expected. That much is fair game. But don't be seduced by an eight-game sample.
Verdict: Nah
Anthony Davis' Three-Point Shooting
Anthony Davis has cooled off from beyond the arc after beginning the year shooting 7-of-15 (46.7 percent). But he shot over 40 percent on long twos in each of the previous three seasons; looks he has almost entirely removed from his offensive diet.
Dancing around the league average from distance profiles as a realistic goal.
Verdict: Legit
Alex Abrines' Plus-Minus
The Oklahoma City Thunder have outscored opponents by 66 total points when playing Alex Abrines, giving him the NBA's 13th-best plus-minus, right between Kyrie Irving and DeAndre Jordan. Just writing that felt absurd.
This spot is heavily impacted by the lineups he plays in, so it could stand up. Andre Roberson has seen his playing time slashed, paving the way for Abrines, who has become a staple in Oklahoma City's favorite Carmelo Anthony-plus-backups beast.
Then again, last year's top-15 finishers consisted almost solely of top-25 players and role players who cut checks from the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs.
Verdict: Nah
San Antonio Spurs' Kiddies
Kyle Anderson is playing like an NBA player just in time for restricted free agency.
Sophomore Dejounte Murray is a defensive whiz kid.
Brandon Paul, an undrafted rookie, is playing actual minutes and doesn't know how to miss from three.
A full-blown "nah" would be appropriate in most instances, but these toddlers play for the Spurs. We know better.
Verdict: Legit
Otto Porter: The Washington Wizards' Best Player
Otto Porter is doing everything he did last season, only more so. That he's defending his butt off and shooting better than 50 percent from three isn't surprising, even if his counting stats are unsustainable.
Him playing like the Washington Wizards' best player, bar none? Now that's a shock—and definitely unsustainable. We have to assume John Wall will eventually re-activate MVP Mode.
Verdict: Nah(t yet)
Boston Celtics Defense
2 of 11
The Boston Celtics cut bait with Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder over the summer. Marcus Morris has yet to play while coping with knee soreness. Gordon Hayward is done for the season. They start Jaylen Brown, a sophomore, and Jayson Tatum, a rookie.
Four of their six most-used players haven't celebrated their 24th birthdays.
So, naturally, the Celtics sport the league's best defense.
This doesn't feel the least bit sustainable. The Celtics may be a good defensive team. They could verge on great by year's end. They have youngsters whose defense belies their age. But propping up the NBA's top fortress? For an entire year? While being so dependent on inexperience and youth? Something smells fishy there, as CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote:
"Look, young teams don't defend well. You have to have a knowledge base of not only sets and schemes but personnel, and in time, they'll face more and more opponents that know how to work around the system. They're surrendering the ninth-most shots in the restricted area, and at a middle-of-the-road efficiency (opponents shooting 62 percent). All of this has led to their giving up the 10th-most points in the paint per game this season."
Opponents are also shooting a combined 30.1 percent on open and wide-open three-pointers against the Celtics, according to NBA.com. Only Magic opponents are hitting a smaller share of gimmes from deep. Boston does a great job limiting these looks. About 28 percent of its rivals' treys go uncontested (fifth-best mark in the league).
That subzero accuracy rate won't hold. Offenses will bury more of their high-percentage threebies as the season wears on, particularly from the weak-side corner.
Boston has also only faced one top-15 offense to date (Milwaukee Bucks). Just three of its opponents land outside the bottom 10 in points scored per 100 possessions. And the average offensive rank of the its rivals so far falls between 20th and 21st.
Forgive those of us who aren't sold on the Celtics retaining their defensive crown. They're still a good team, and their offense is starting to come together, but their success on the less glamorous end feels like an aberration.
Verdict: Nah
Brooklyn Nets Offense
3 of 11
A borderline top-10 offense for the Brooklyn Nets? Like, the Brooklyn Nets?
Yeah, no.
The Nets are fun. They play fast and free and hard. They will catch certain teams off guard with their commitment to intensity, libertarian motion offense and bundle of interchangeable ball-handlers. But they do not have the resources, barring a trade, to exist alongside the NBA's most efficient bucket-getters.
Breakneck speeds organically create turnovers. The Nets' dependence on inexperience, full-court free-for-alls and general experimentation will culminate in even more unforced errors. Their top-seven turnover rate isn't going to stand.
They've already started coming back down to earth. They're 27th in points scored per 100 possessions over their past three games (all losses).
D'Angelo Russell's outside shooting has regressed closer to his mean. Ditto for Allen Crabbe. Spencer Dinwiddie continues to ride Cloud 9, but Quincy Acy won't shoot 50-plus percent from long range on career-high volume forever.
Brooklyn isn't making too much noise around the basket, either. It places 22nd in accuracy inside five feet, and given a middle-of-the-road rank on drives, maintaining a top-three free-throw rate figures to be untenable.
Some of their most-played lineups remain offensive fireballs, but they, too, are feeling the ramifications that come with more expansive samples. And various absences cannot be used as a sweeping excuse.
Again: The Nets are fun. Watch them. They will get hot on some nights, and their high-octane brand of basketball keeps you engaged. Just don't bank on their offense finishing where it has started.
Verdict: Nah
Victor Oladipo, Indiana Pacers
4 of 11
If anyone in the Indiana Pacers locker room isn't sold on Victor Oladipo's sweltering play out of the gate, they're a lonesome minority.
“No, I think this can be Victor," head coach Nate McMillan said when pressed on the sustainability of this hot streak, per the Indianapolis Star's Gregg Doyel. "He has the potential I think to be one of the top players [in the league]."
"This is Vic," added Domantas Sabonis. "I knew that when I got traded with him. He just needed a team where he's feeling comfortable in his role."
"That's a dumb question," Myles Turner said, unsolicited, when Doyel asked Oladipo asked about his play. "This is who he is. I'll answer it for him."
Alriiighty then.
Oladipo is averaging 23.8 points on 48.5 percent shooting, including a 50 percent clip from beyond the arc (all career highs). His free-throw rate has exploded, his finishing around the rim has held firm, and he's suffocating rivals who dare challenge him one-on-one.
And yet, skeptical facial expressions are encouraged.
Nearly one-third of Oladipo's shot attempts have come as pull-up jumpers. He's shooting 45.2 percent overall in those situations and 64.3 percent on rise-and-fire threes—numbers that blow his efficiency in years past out of the water. He's also shooting almost 73 percent in isolation (8-of-11) and swishing 61.4 percent of his contested field goals, compared to last season's marks of 36.4 and 45.9, respectively.
Leaving behind ultra-butchered roles with the Magic and Thunder was always supposed to look great on Oladipo. Additional volume and more freedom should translate into a career year. But permanently submitting to this start—which has buoyed a top-three offense—would force us to view him in All-Star terms. And we can't ticket him to such a drastic leap fewer than 10 games into the season.
Verdict: Nah
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
5 of 11
What was the name of the future Hall of Fame point guard the Los Angeles Clippers traded to the Houston Rockets last June again? Chris...something?
Ah, well. It doesn't matter. The Clippers offense hardly misses him. They're not as clean out of the pick-and-roll, and DeAndre Jordan isn't shooting a zillion percent from the floor. But they're still fourth in points scored per 100 possessions, still hella dangerous in transition and still getting demolished by the Warriors.
Blake Griffin is at the center of this survival. He's entered lone-wolf mode, and the returns are spectacular.
Not to mention sustainable.
Certain things will change, because they can't not change. Griffin won't shoot 63.6 percent on post-ups all season. His career-best 43.2 percent knockdown rate from three-point land should dip. He won't switch on defense as seamlessly. His transition into lifeline duty will encounter warts and wrinkles.
At the same time, Griffin's return to the top-15 discussion is not transient. We could see this coming last season—the outline of it anyway. Look at his production per 36 minutes without Paul last year compared to his output this season:
Go ahead. Search for the anomaly. You won't find it. Even his efficiency after burning through a bunch of dribbles is nothing new. He's shooting 54.5 percent when putting the ball on the floor seven or more times; he hit 52.8 percent of those same looks last year.
Verdict: Super Legit
Memphis Grizzlies Bench
6 of 11
Rewind to training camp. Someone asks you to predict which team will have the most effective bench this season. What are your first five guesses?
Most definitely the Warriors. The Spurs, obviously. Maybe the Celtics. Probably one, if not both, of the Heat and Utah Jazz.
But the Memphis Grizzlies? The serially shallow, always-close-to-being-left-behind Memphis Grizzlies? Nah.
Those same Grizzlies are making pretty much all of us look like fools now. And we should have no qualms about their overall spot in the NBA's pecking order. The offense has come off its high, the defense is in a monogamous relationship with top-five placement, and Marc Gasol is ageless. People wrote them out of the Western Conference's playoff picture too soon.
Getting on board with their second-unit play is far more difficult. Their second-stringers are outpacing hostile backups by 13.5 points per 100 possessions—by far and away the best mark in the league.
Head coach David Fizdale is a genius for bringing both Tyreke Evans and Chandler Parsons off the pine. Both are lighting up defenses from behind the rainbow and off the dribble. Memphis is obliterating opponents by 19.3 points per 100 possessions in the 106 minutes they've played together, and more than half of this time has come within an all-bench mob presently torching its enemies.
Rookie Dillon Brooks is an offensive wild card but a defensive acid trip. Mario Chalmers has a case of the Mike Conleys: He's not shooting particularly well, but he's a steadying presence. Brandan Wright still has some bounce left in his legs.
This team will look even deeper once JaMychal Green (ankle), Ben McLemore (toe) and Wayne Selden (quad) work through their injuries. But let's not pop the champagne just yet. The Grizzlies' bench is pieced together with odds and ends. That they're in any way tethering their fate to career efficiency from Evans and Parsons is a red flag.
Perhaps the Grizzlies are, in fact, deeper than initially advertised. But the gap between "flush with rotation players" and "not completely gutted" is an enormous one. Memphis remains closer to the middle and lower ends of that spectrum.
Verdict: Nah
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
7 of 11
Giannis Antetokounmpo rode his shooting star to the moon last season and has now charted course for another galaxy in another dimension from another reality.
The rest of the NBA is in trouble.
Through his first eight appearances, Antetokounmpo is averaging 31.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.1 blocks on 60.0 percent shooting. Allow me to save you a trip to Basketball-Reference's season finder: No one has done anything remotely close to this over an entire season. Tinker with the qualifiers as desired; you won't find comparable company.
Antetokounmpo is also on pace to shatter the NBA's record for player efficiency rating, currently held by Wilt Chamberlain. Stephen Curry is the only player who has added more offensive value this season, and DeMarcus Cousins is the lone soul to have injected more overall value, according to NBA Math.
Tune into a Bucks game, and you'll come away sold—not on the Bucks, who are painfully mediocre, but on Antetokounmpo as a top-five, maybe top-three, possibly top-two player.
He (probably) won't shoot 60 percent from the field for much longer, and his pleasantly high three-point clip (35.3 percent) should fall. We're not spotting holes in his play beyond that.
Nor should we be looking for them. Antetokounmpo has transcended disclaimers. He could avoid taking threes altogether, or miss every single triplet he hoists, and it would barely affect his offensive curb appeal.
Defenses don't have an answer for his combination of control, wingspan and miles-long strides. He doesn't need time or room to maneuver around and through traffic. He just needs the ball. And he does everything on defense. He's guarding as many isolations as Khris Middleton, as many spot-ups as Jaylen Brown and as many shots at the rim as Anthony Davis.
Now, ask yourself this: What's more unreal, Antetokounmpo's performance or the unrelenting, screaming voice in your head telling you most of this is sustainable?
Verdict: Super-Duper Legit
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
8 of 11
Kristaps Porzingis' verdict depends on how you interpret his blazing start.
"He should be an MVP," teammate Enes Kanter said, per the New York Post's Mike Vaccaro. "I'm just throwing it out there."
Slow your roll there, Halloween heretic. Russell Westbrook may have opened the door for really good players from not-so-great teams to secure MVP honors, but your New York Knicks fail to meet that benchmark.
"If they wanted to tank games for the draft this season, his play may not let them," one Eastern Conference executive told ESPN.com's Ian Begley of Porzingis.
Now we're talking.
Good luck to Porzingis if he plans on being the anchor for an average defense all season. The Knicks' surrounding personnel don't have that in them. (Not you, Frankie Ntilikina. You're good.) And his shooting percentages will suffer wild swings by the game based on the different defensive approaches he'll see.
Extra attention in the post-Carmelo Anthony era is already harshing Porzingis' shot selection. Just over sixteen percent of his attempts have come with a defender within two feet of his person, up from 14.7 percent last year. Antetokounmpo is the only player who has launched more total looks in such tight spaces.
Almost exclusively playing power forward will threaten to run Porzingis ragged. Rival offenses are trying to get him on the move and outside of the paint. He continues to erase shots at the rim when given the chance, but he's contesting 4.9 three-pointers per game— most among 390 players who have more than one appearance under their belts.
Still, Porzingis was tabbed for stardom before this season, and New York seems content to let him flirt with league-high usage. If he is who he's supposed to be, his 27.9 points per game on a 46.8/33.3/83.0 shooting slash will hold fairly firm—right along with his persisting, and underutilized, value as a rim protector.
Verdict: Legit(ish)
Orlando Magic
9 of 11
Here's the list of teams that rank inside the top 10 of offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency and pace this season:
- Orlando Magic
And that's it.
Kudos to anyone trying to spin this as more than an early-season tear. Orlando has maybe shown it belongs in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff conversation and that Nikola Vucevic should have been chucking threes a long time ago. Taking away anything more is irresponsible.
The Magic won't be shooting 44.2 percent from deep for the entire year. That would be the best mark in NBA history.
Aaron Gordon (57.7 percent from three), Evan Fournier (55.8), Marreese Speights (50.0) and Jonathon Simmons (45.0) are all shooting way above their heads. The same goes for the injured Elfrid Payton (50 percent). And as a collective, the Magic are banging in 50.0 percent of their contested threes. That number will take a nosedive.
The entire offense is in line for a reality check. They've only gone up against three top-15 defenses (Charlotte, San Antonio, Memphis), and while they're 2-1 in those outings, their results have a Nets-like feel to them.
Playing this fast (third in pace) disarms defenses. Some teams are still working themselves into game shape (sup, Cleveland), and no one is used to a Frank Vogel-coached squad running at warp speed.
Buy into the Magic as fringe whatevers if you like. Right now, though, they're playing like one of the NBA's five best teams. All of us would be remiss to talk ourselves into that continuing.
Verdict: Nah
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
10 of 11
Ben Simmons is ridiculously good.
Just don't tell that to him.
"I thought I'd be playing better, honestly," he said, per Philly.com's Keith Pompey. "I need to pick it up."
Totally. After all, he has yet to make his first NBA three-pointer. And he's shooting under 60 percent from the charity stripe. And he's coughing the ball up a hair too much (3.4 turnovers per 36 minutes). And he's letting ball-handlers shoot better than 45 percent out of the pick-and-roll. And the Philadelphia 76ers aren't scoring like the NBA's best offense with him in the game.
Never mind that he's flinging passes only James Harden and LeBron James are supposed to make. Or that he's shooting 53.8 percent in isolation. Or that he's forcing turnovers on more than 20 percent of the pick-and-rolls he's guarding.
He's flashing five-position switchability? Who cares. He's shooting nearly 68 percent at the rim? Whatever. He's finding nylon on 77.8 percent of his transition looks? Yawn.
He's on track to join Oscar Robertson as just the second rookie in NBA history to clear 18 points, nine rebounds and seven assists per game? Boring.
Clearly, Simmons should be playing better. Clearly, producing like a fringe All-Star isn't good enough for a 21-year-old (redshirt) rookie.
And, clearly, he has no shot at sustaining this definitely underwhelming, not-at-all fantastic level of play for a Sixers squad that has given him almost full control over its offense.
Verdict: Legit
Mike James, Phoenix Suns
11 of 11
Commit Mike James to memory. He's going to be around for a while.
Someone has to stand out on a bad team, but the 27-year-old isn't doing his best 2013-14 Michael Carter-Williams. Yes, he needs to hone his touch around the basket and he takes off in traffic a tad too soon. And sure, he will sometimes get bullied by bigger guards itching to shoot over his 6'1" defenders. But his game belongs in the NBA.
For all his awkward point-blank releases, James is dangerous when coming around screens. He doesn't pick up his dribble in the lane without a purpose and knows how to lead his rolling bigs toward the hoop.
Although the Phoenix Suns must upgrade their spacing to maximize his work as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, James will make do leveraging his release behind screens. He's shooting 38.9 percent on a steady volume of pull-up threes and ups his efficiency when firing off the catch.
Watching him work on defense will make you a believer in the eye test. He hounds opposing point guards, offering little respite. His aggression can get him in trouble against score-first maestros, but he has the lateral gait to make life hell on floor generals looking to come around picks and slice through traffic to set up their teammates.
No one's saying James will be an All-Star—at least, they shouldn't be. The Suns won't score like a top-two offense with him in the game every night. But he makes them better. And his current production (12.6 points and 4.0 assists per game with an above-average three-point clip) should stick.
Kind of like his future in the NBA.
Verdict: Legit
Unless otherwise cited, all stats are courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and current leading into games on Nov. 3.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
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