NFL1000: Can the Chiefs Make a Super Bowl Run with Alex Smith as Their QB?

After their 29-28 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs stand at 9-3, one game behind the surprising Oakland Raiders in the AFC West and a game ahead of the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. They've won 19 of their last 22 regular-season contests. They have one of the league's better pass-rush units, an above-average defense and an offense that manages to be efficient and productive despite a relative lack of explosive targets.

If the Chiefs are to make to their first Super Bowl in the post-merger era (Super Bowl IV remains their benchmark), quarterback Alex Smith will have to put more on his shoulders. And if you're even remotely familiar with the NFL over the last decade, the standard narrative says Smith is incapable of doing so.

Oh, sure, he's a good quarterback. The first overall pick in the 2005 draft has turned himself into a safe, turnover-averse player with a sound sense of the field, a command of a complex system under head coach Andy Reid and a decent enough arm. Where Smith has always come up short is in the kinds of big plays we attribute to the league's best quarterbacks.

That narrative is generally correct. During his last years in San Francisco, Smith lived up to his potential by adhering strictly to head coach Jim Harbaugh's offensive edicts—rely on the run game, take what's open and don't screw things up for the defense—and helped his 2011 team to within one game of the Super Bowl.

The next year, when Smith suffered a midseason concussion, Harbaugh replaced him with Colin Kaepernick, and it was Kaepernick's more obvious affinity for the big play that took the 2012 49ers to Super Bowl XLVII and a close loss to the Ravens.

Smith needed to get out of the Bay Area and move to a place better attuned to his strengths and weaknesses. In a trade to the Chiefs and a new start with Reid in 2013, Smith found just that.

Throughout his time in Philadelphia, Reid had a gift for taking physically limited quarterbacks to the peaks of their potential, and it could be argued he's done the same thing with Smith. The veteran made the Pro Bowl in his first season with Reid, and through nearly four campaigns with the Chiefs, his statistics are above-average: 1,168 completions in 1,813 attempts (a 64.4 completion rate) for 12,631 yards, 72 touchdowns and 24 interceptions.

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Spectacular? Not at all. Mercilessly efficient? Absolutely. That's the player Smith has been for years, and many would tell you he won't transcend that.

In 2016, according to Pro Football Focus' metrics, he's attempted just 38 passes over 20 yards in the air, with only 10 completions for 345 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a quarterback rating of 62.7. All of those numbers are in the bottom quarter of stats for starting quarterbacks, save for his interceptions, and they tell the tale we already know. Smith is a system quarterback who needs to stay inside the box at all times.

Here's the question that has dogged him for years and tends to plague all similarly limited quarterbacks: Can he do enough to lead his team to a Super Bowl without a historically great defense?

The 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, 2013 Seahawks and 2015 Broncos each own Lombardi Trophies through the efforts of their defenses as opposed to their quarterbacks, and while Kansas City's defense is good, there are enough personnel holes to stop short of that designation. This Chiefs team is not one that will be able to hide its quarterback when the playoffs come.

And Smith's performance this season as a deep passer against better teams is a worrisome one. Against defenses ranked in the top 15 of Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted metrics (Denver, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Houston, Carolina, Tampa Bay), he's attempted 21 deep throws with just five completions for 187 yards, no touchdowns and one pick.

Based on the tape, the Chiefs are giving Smith enough opportunities to throw deep, no matter the opponent—but Smith isn't getting it done. In this case, Reid must use route combinations that present a clear read to Smith while giving him the time to either navigate open coverage windows or throw his receivers open. Smith can do both of those things.

When I reviewed Smith's performance against the Falcons, a game in which he completed 21 of 25 passes for 270 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, I saw a few things that took me beyond the narrative. Smith is limited, yes, but under certain conditions, he can let it fly and make transcendent throws.

This 21-yarder with 9:15 left in the first quarter is just Travis Kelce getting open past linebackers Deion Jones (45) and De'Vondre Campbell (59) in underneath zone coverage. Both Jones and Campbell are rookies, and though they're each good players, they can get suckered. Jones appeared to be the one responsible for taking Kelce (87) up the seam, and in that case, he bit on the play fake to running back Spencer Ware and left Kelce wide open. There's an easy completion.

On the next play, Kelce was in the left slot, and he ran right by safety Keanu Neal (22), another talented Falcons defender whose rookie status shows up on tape at times. Smith has a clean pocket and makes the right throw with touch, velocity and arc for a 35-yard gain. The boundary fade throw is not always an easy one, but Smith stepped into it well.

Perhaps the best deep attempt of Smith's day was one that went incomplete, and it wasn't on the quarterback at all. With 11:57 left in the second quarter, Smith uncorked this beautiful pass to receiver Chris Conley (17), who had beaten cornerback Jalen Collins (32) to the right-side boundary. This is everything you want in a long throw to a deep receiver with outside position to the sideline: Smith puts the ball where his receiver is the only one who can catch it and gives him enough space to get both feet in bounds, which makes it especially regrettable that Conley flat-out dropped it.

This 21-yard connection to receiver Albert Wilson is the play after the Conley drop, which didn't faze Smith at all. It helped that Kansas City's 3x1 formation gave Wilson (12) an easy opening from the inside slot. Before the defense could converge, Smith had the ball out to his target.

OK, you may say that's Smith against a zone defense with average overall coverage. What does he do against better defenses, especially those that play aggressive man coverage? The Chiefs' Week 12 overtime win over the Broncos shows good and bad.

Smith can get skittish when his openings aren't defined, but he doesn't generally bail from the pocket and start doing stupid stuff; he's more inclined to give up, take the sack and live to the next down. An admirable trait to a degree, but one wonders if, with as much experience as he has, he might not be better served by thinking outside the box every so often.

The Broncos sacked Smith six times, and though there were occasions when their pass rush overwhelmed the Chiefs offensive line, there were also instances in which Smith suffered from paralysis by analysis and needed to get rid of the ball sooner.

With 13:19 left in the fourth quarter, Smith took the ball and faced pressure with crossing routes from each side and Kelce as the open outlet receiver to his right. The scheme presented him with a first-read-open scenario and allowed him to take more if he had time. Instead, he held the ball, eventually folded and took the Shane Ray sack—Denver's second consecutive sack.

That said, Smith can make killer throws against aggressive defenses—it's just that everything has to be in his favor for it to work consistently. This 21-yard pass to Kelce in overtime with cornerback Aqib Talib (21) covering is a good example.

Here, Talib (one of the best cover men in the league) takes a wrong step after Kelce gives him an outside fake and instead goes inside with a skinny post. Smith has enough confidence in Kelce to make the throw, believing it will work, and it does.

Is this to say Alex Smith is a hidden gunslinger? Not really. He's a player who will come unhinged at the seams if he's allowed to do too much outside of structure—he's been trained to stay within it too long, and his physical attributes are what they are. He won't hit a series of gorgeous 50-yard bombs with perfect accuracy, but he can define a system with bigger plays as long as Reid continues to design openings that give Smith confidence.

That may be enough to get the Chiefs to Super Bowl 51, but one thing's for sure: Without a more expansive passing game, it's possible that the regular-season success of this team and this quarterback will ring hollow when February comes.