Jae Crowder on the Verge of Becoming Boston Celtics' 3rd Star

The road to an NBA championship is invisible without top-shelf talent.

Right now, the Boston Celtics only have two players who’ve played in an All-Star Game. This leads us to believe the team needs to acquire a third star—before the 30-year-old Al Horford shows decline and 5’9” Isaiah Thomas is up for a new deal in 2018—if it wants to win a title with this core.

But there’s a chance Boston’s missing piece is already on board.

Jae Crowder was arguably the Celtics’ most important player last season. He's a two-way menace who defends four positions and opens a cavern of lineup combinations for head coach Brad Stevens.

“He can play the wing position, and then you know Brad will slide him over to the 4 during the game when you’re not looking,” Brooklyn head coach Kenny Atkinson said before Crowder scored 21 points in Boston’s opening-night win over the Nets on Wednesday. 

Coming off a breakout year in which he emerged as the indispensable leader of a 48-win team—with skills that stretched beyond what’s required of a three-and-D specialist—Crowder should be even better in 2016-17.

It’s far from outlandish to think his first All-Star appearance is right around the corner.

“He’s a great all-around player,” Amir Johnson said. “The key thing is just guys staying healthy, keep playing within their game, playing within our offense, and it definitely wouldn’t surprise me if he’d be an All-Star, man, because he’s basically one of the most versatile players that can play the 3-spot, switch to the 4 at times, and be a great scorer.”

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Last season’s growth, Boston’s sky-high expectations, an expanding role and his noticeable improvements since the beginning of training camp make it feel like Crowder is on the verge of becoming more than the owner of the most team-friendly contract in the league.

According to ESPN.com, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Paul George were the only small forwards to post a higher real plus-minus than Crowder last season. He finished 26th overall (one spot ahead of Horford). Overall projections by ESPN.com's Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi have Crowder at 18th overall (one spot ahead of New Orleans' Anthony Davis).

Conversely, the Celtics posted their third-lowest point differential (plus-1.3 points per 100 possessions) with Crowder on the sidelines last year. A sprained ankle suffered in early March derailed his career year and prevented Boston from making the type of playoff noise it thought it would. A 6.7 player efficiency rating in 197 postseason minutes was the result of Crowder's essentially playing on one leg.

Heading into last year, FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO player projections listed former Golden State Warriors forward Tom Abernethy’s 1980 campaign as Crowder’s closest comparison. This year, it’s Phoenix Suns swingman Dan Majerle, circa 1992.

The same year he made his first All-Star team.

Crowder is a tremendous finisher around the basket, and he's made necessary strides with his outside shot over the past few years. But his usage percentage was eighth-highest among Celtics who logged at least 400 minutes last season. Over 60 percent of his shots came after zero dribbles. He fed off others and sometimes became flustered when squared off against a set defense.

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And he’s never been asked to set up teammates off the bounce since he entered the NBA.

But even though he finished with only the 10th-highest assist rate on the team—and finished only 7.3 percent of used possessions as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, per NBA.com—Crowder knows how to attack a closeout, force help and quickly find an open teammate.

He’s prepared to have the ball in his hands more often, particularly in smaller lineups as a playmaking power forward.  

“He’s become … a better ball-handler. Just getting to the rim a lot more,” Marcus Smart said. “He’s a lot more quicker than he was last year, his first step. So that’s good for Jae, and it’s good for this team.”

But the most noticeable way for Crowder to elevate his game? An even better outside shot.

He made one-third of his threes last year (33.6 percent), knocking down just 31.8 percent when the closest defender was within four to six feet and 39.6 percent when the closest defender was any further than that—as good as Draymond Green and Kevin Love.

These numbers provide just enough gravity for Crowder to keep his man honest and maintain a spaced floor. But nobody’s closing out in a mad dash to stop him from pulling the trigger.

“I think Jae is a player that’s put in the work this summer, and we see it,” Horford said. “I can see it, I can see a difference. ... He seems a lot more confident. His three-point shooting is a lot better. It’s something that could’ve been a question for him in the past. He’s made some, but, like, now he’s consistently making shots time after time.”

Crowder was well above 40 percent in the preseason and is 4-of-10 in two regular-season games. He hasn't been shy about open looks. It felt like new confidence.

More nights like Wednesday's effort against Brooklyn will go a long way toward nudging Boston's offense into a permanent spot in the top 10. 

It once felt like all of Crowder’s offensive contributions were gravy. He earned his money on defense as a strong body who could latch on to the game’s best scorers and make them work harder than usual for their points. As he's tasked with switching to players who are smaller and faster, taller and stronger, positioning is paramount.

“I think, defensively, I just notice he’s in the right place even more,” Stevens said. “And I think that’s really important, and I think he’s a really good defender. And he’s also a really good anticipator. And for him to be in the right place gives him a great chance to make impactful plays and create turnovers and create chaos and those types of things.”

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Players who provide the type of two-way production the Celtics need from Crowder are generally recognized as stars. What separates them is a consistent ability to create efficient one-on-one looks and successfully draw two defenders to the ball.

But all that may not be necessary on this team. If Crowder's better than he was last year, even if it’s in the most subtle ways, All-Star Weekend will politely request his attendance. 

Whether he makes his first All-Star appearance or not, Crowder remains one of the most valuable players on a team that’s expected to have home-court advantage in the first round.

All quotes in this article were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.