Predicting Oklahoma City Thunder's Final 15-Man 2016-17 Roster
The Oklahoma City Thunder should head into 2016-17 with modest expectations, as they firmly shift their focus toward rebuilding.
With Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka gone, any realistic hope of a deep playoff run is vanished. Just making it to the postseason would be a terrific achievement for the Thunder, who have previously been recognized as perennial title contenders for several years.
The team is young and has plenty of potential, and Oklahoma City fans will still be entertained by Russell Westbrook's stardom on a regular basis. But before the season tips off, head coach Billy Donovan and the front office have some roster riddles to solve.
The Thunder are deep in the frontcourt, and a logjam seems nearly impossible to avoid. There are more openings in the backcourt and on the wing but fewer capable candidates to fill the roles. Injuries also shake things up, making roster balance that much more important heading into the regular season.
Point Guards
1 of 5
| Status | Player | Age | HT | WT |
| Starter | Russell Westbrook | 27 | 6'3" | 200 |
| Reserve | Cameron Payne | 22 | 6'3" | 185 |
| Reserve | Ronnie Price | 33 | 6'2" | 190 |
| Unlikely | Alex Caruso | 22 | 6'5" | 186 |
| Unlikely | Semaj Christon | 23 | 6'3" | 190 |
Many probably wondered what kind of heroics Westbrook would be capable of as a single star with his own team. Now the stage is vacant, and the spotlight is on him.
During the 2014-15 season, an injury-riddled campaign for Durant, Westbrook averaged 28.1 points, 8.6 assists and 7.3 rebounds. His usage rate of 38.4 percent ranked second all-time, according to Basketball-Reference.com, and it would almost be surprising if he didn't claim that record this year.
While Westbrook will undoubtedly carry an immense load, Cameron Payne should be ready to build on a promising rookie season. It's also plausible that Donovan will experiment playing the two point guards together—an attempt to give Payne more playing time and allow Westbrook to cause havoc with explosive weak-side cuts.
That's what was supposed to happen, anyway.
Payne will miss the next 6-8 weeks of action with a broken foot, according to ESPN.com's Royce Young. That means Ronnie Price's internal stock goes up immensely, and he should log plenty of minutes right out of the gate. He has always been a shaky shooter, but the Thunder must hope his career-high three-point percentage of 34.7 from last season wasn't a fluke.
Victor Oladipo's ability to fill in at point guard, along with the team's depth up front, likely means only these three point guards make the roster, even though Payne's injury could make the team a little queasy. Alex Caruso and Semaj Christon should be on the outside looking in, with Christon a slight favorite if OKC wants another point guard. He averaged 18.6 points, 5.7 assists and 3.7 rebounds in 44 games during the 2014-15 NBA D-League season playing for the Oklahoma City Blue.
Shooting Guards
2 of 5
| Status | Player | Age | HT | WT |
| Starter | Victor Oladipo | 24 | 6'4" | 210 |
| Reserve | Anthony Morrow | 31 | 6'5" | 210 |
| Reserve | Alex Abrines | 23 | 6'6" | 190 |
| Unlikely | Daniel Hamilton | 21 | 6'7" | 195 |
Oladipo is the team's most exciting addition from the summer, and his progress will determine the direction of the Thunder's season. All the requirements for a great campaign are there: three years of development courtesy of the Orlando Magic, two-way versatility, flexibility to play both guard positions and a pending free agency to further motivate.
Oladipo will be able to share the ball-handling duties with Westbrook, forming one of the best backcourt duos in the league. They are lightning-quick guards who contribute on both ends and have versatile offensive arsenals.
Anthony Morrow will need to step up his three-point shooting in order to earn minutes. He shot 38.7 percent from deep last year—his worst average since the 2012-13 season. He's not particularly versatile and mostly contributes in the spacing department from the corners.
Alex Abrines could become the second-string shooting guard during his rookie campaign. He was drafted 32nd overall in 2013, and several years as a contributor overseas for FC Barcelona should make for a seamless adaptation. He shot 41.7 percent from deep in Euroleague last season, and he could even fill in at small forward if Donovan experiments with small lineups.
Abrines' biggest question marks are on the defensive end, as Brandon Jefferson of WelcomeToLoudCity.com summarized:
"Abrines has good size at 6'6" and 190 pounds, however, he has trouble on defense. Without exceptional length or speed, it is hard for Abrines to be a plus defender. Oftentimes, it is inexperience that'll make teams overseas plant prospects on the bench. In Abrines' case it was more because there weren't many opposing wings he could guard.
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Daniel Hamilton went undrafted following two years at UConn, and it's highly unlikely he'd crack the rotation if he somehow made it past training camp.
Small Forwards
3 of 5
| Status | Player | Age | HT | WT |
| Starter | Andre Roberson | 24 | 6'7" | 210 |
| Reserve | Kyle Singler | 28 | 6'8" | 228 |
| Reserve | Josh Huestis | 24 | 6'7" | 230 |
The Thunder lack depth at small forward following Durant's departure, as none of the available options are particularly exciting.
Andre Roberson was the starting 2-guard last year, and he'll likely be bumped down a position by default. He has the size to play small forward, and he'll continue to guard the most threatening opposing perimeter player, even with Oladipo around.
The big concern is the offense. The Thunder could survive Roberson's lack of a three-point shot through the individual excellence of the Westbrook-Durant-Ibaka trio. With most of that explosive scoring power gone, hiding Roberson's flaws will prove increasingly more difficult.
Kyle Singler was a disaster last season, shooting 38.9 percent from the field and 30.9 percent from deep. He received minutes by default behind Durant, and he should continue earning reserve time considering the available options. He simply has to be more productive than last year, or else he could lose playing time to Josh Huestis.
Huestis appeared during just five games last year, spending most of this time in the D-League, where he shot just 39.7 percent from the field. However, the 24-year-old realizes the opportunity that is presented to him.
"Obviously, losing Kevin opens up a lot of minutes," Huestis said, per Erik Horne of NewsOK.com. "I'm just trying to be somebody who can step in and contribute, help the team win in whatever capacity that is."
Consistency is what Oklahoma City needs from its humble crop of small forwards, and whoever can step up in those shoes will tilt the minutes their way. All three should make the roster considering the lack of competition.
Power Forwards
4 of 5
| Status | Player | Age | HT | WT |
| Starter | Ersan Ilyasova | 29 | 6'10" | 235 |
| Reserve | Domantas Sabonis | 20 | 6'11" | 240 |
| Reserve | Nick Collison | 35 | 6'10" | 255 |
| Unlikely | Mitch McGary | 24 | 6'10" | 255 |
| Unlikely | Chris Wright | 28 | 6'9" | 226 |
The aforementioned logjam is blatantly clear here.
Ersan Ilyasova figures to start at power forward, as his ability to spread the floor must salvage what little spacing the projected starting lineup has. He's been a serviceable NBA player for eight seasons now, and having another veteran with an otherwise young group is always preferable.
Ilyasova is a smart player and can occasionally hold his own defensively, but he is nowhere near fast enough to contain some of the quicker, more athletic power forwards. That's where rookie Domantas Sabonis figures to bring value.
Sabonis isn't particularly athletic, but he is mature beyond his age. He has tremendous basketball IQ, and he may be in contention for a starter spot with an improving three-point stroke. Donovan is already impressed with what he has seen.
"In terms of defensively where he's supposed to be, remembering plays, doing his job, being in the right spots, the right positions, (being) a competitive guy, he's reliable," Donovan said of the rookie, per Horne. "Really reliable."
Enes Kanter also figures to see some playing time at power forward, which should further cramp the rotation. Mitch McGary will most likely be cut amid his pending NBA suspension, while the competition should also inevitably omit Chris Wright, who has been out of the league since 2013-14.
Centers
5 of 5
| Status | Player | Age | HT | WT |
| Starter | Steven Adams | 23 | 7'0" | 255 |
| Reserve | Enes Kanter | 24 | 6'11" | 245 |
| Reserve | Joffrey Lauvergne | 25 | 6'11" | 220 |
| Unlikely | Kaleb Tarczewski | 23 | 7'0" | 250 |
Steven Adams will remain the starting center and the second-most important player on the Thunder's roster. He already plays like a veteran, despite being just 23 years old.
Adams is a phenomenal defensive player, was the unsung hero in Oklahoma City's playoff run last year and deserves a tremendous amount of praise. He holds his own in the post, is phenomenal in the pick-and-roll and even has the foot speed to close out on guards and contain them off the dribble.
Kanter is listed as a center here, but he should also see minutes at power forward as Donovan experiments with various frontcourt combinations. He can carry an offense and is borderline unstoppable in the post while creating a ton of extra opportunities. Kanter led the league in offensive rebound percentage last season among players who appeared in 40 or more games, per NBA.com.
When Kanter isn't filling in at center, Joffrey Lauvergne should provide a nice backup option. The Frenchman is a physical presence down low, equipped with some classical European finesse offensively. He has been extending his shooting range, and a consistent three-point shot would guarantee him more minutes.
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