Orlando Magic Complete 2016-17 Preview

Most NBA cores dissolve eventually and over time, but the Orlando Magic's cracked in a matter of weeks.

2015-16's version carried a 19-13 mark into the new year, good enough for fifth in the Eastern Conference. But the Magic sandwiched losing streaks of four and eight games around an uninspiring win over the lowly Brooklyn Nets, crash-landing with a 113-94 road loss to the Boston Celtics on Jan. 29.

"We're playing soft right now," then-Magic guard Victor Oladipo said, per Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. "We're not playing together, and it's not working. And if we don't figure it out, it's going to be too late."

It was already too late. The damage was done, and the dismantling followed shortly thereafter.

Tobias Harris and Channing Frye were sent packing at the trade deadline. Scott Skiles resigned as head coach less than one year after accepting the job, and former Indiana Pacers skipper Frank Vogel took over. Oladipo, Orlando's highest pick since Dwight Howard, was himself traded on draft night for seven-year veteran Serge Ibaka.

The activity carried over into the offseason with Orlando frantically reworking its core in an attempt to snap a four-year playoff drought. But despite having such a busy summer, the Magic may be no closer to that elusive postseason spot than previously.

Biggest Offseason Move

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The offseason swap with the most long-term meaning is the transition from Skiles to Vogel. The former always seemed like a stopgap solution, having never held the same post for long. The latter could be an Orlando fixture, as the 43-year-old boasts both strong player-development chops and plus-.500 career coaching records in the regular season (.580) and playoffs (.508).

But the immediate focus from the Magic's summer is on the volume of roster moves: Of the 17 players who suited up last season, only six still reside in Disney's home.

Orlando's radically reshaped ranks feature a slew of risk-versus-reward wagers, none greater than the Ibaka acquisition. There was some sticker shock at the price—the 24-year-old Oladipo, No. 11 pick Domantas Sabonis and stretch forward Ersan Ilyasova, and with Ibaka earmarked for the 2017 free-agent market, the Magic may have shot themselves in the foot should this be just a one-year rental.

But Orlando knew of the potential pitfalls and still pulled the trigger. Why? Because Ibaka, a three-time All-Defensive first-team selection, could be the key piece of Vogel's puzzle.

"Serge Ibaka is such an important piece to taking this organization to where we want to take it, to become a defensive monster, be one of the best defensive teams in the league," Vogel told reporters. "We are going to preach defense as much as I always have. But you have to have the people that can get the job done."

That defensive focus led the Magic to two more rim protectors in veteran Bismack Biyombo and rookie Stephen Zimmerman. Orlando also re-signed Evan Fournier, traded for Jodie Meeks and added Jeff Green and D.J. Augustin to help offset the offense lost by departing Oladipo, Ilyasova, Brandon Jennings, Andrew Nicholson and Jason Smith.

Rotation Breakdown

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With Oladipo out, Elfrid Payton should look even more comfortable as a backcourt building block. The herky-jerky point guard found ways to produce alongside the former, but Payton's limitations will be better masked by playing with Fournier, a career 38.9 percent three-point sniper.

Aaron Gordon gets the starting 3 spot by default. The frontcourt is too crowded to get him major minutes at the 4—where his skill set works best—and he's too talented to sit.

"If Serge Ibaka weren't here, Aaron Gordon would be my power forward," Vogel told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. "But Serge is here. Aaron is going to be playing [small forward]. We are going to put the ball in his hands a lot. We're going to use him like Paul George."

With Ibaka locked in at power forward, the only starting lineup drama is at center. Nikola Vucevic looks like the obvious candidate, having started 268 of his 273 games the past four seasons and averaged 16.2 points and 10.7 boards to boot. But Orlando gave Biyombo a four-year, $72 million pact, which would be a hefty price for a reserve, even in this NBA economy.

Vogel hasn't committed to starting either center, per Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel, and the players are different enough that their minutes could vary based on matchup. But my crystal ball says Vucevic gets the nod for seniority, while Biyombo paces the bench mob in minutes.

PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Elfrid Payton	Evan Fournier	Aaron Gordon	Serge Ibaka	Nikola Vucevic
D.J. Augustin	C.J. Wilcox	Mario Hezonja	Jeff Green	Bismack Biyombo
C.J. Watson	Jodie Meeks			Stephen Zimmerman

Jeff Green's minutes will also be interesting: He's an ignitable scorer playing on a $15 million salary, but he's also a threat to steal playing time from Gordon and/or Mario Hezonja. How Orlando prioritizes production and prospect development will shape this rotation. If Orlando can stomach sitting both Vucevic and Biyombo, it could find a lethal five with Payton, Hezonja, Fournier, Gordon and Ibaka.

Either way, Hezonja will play both wing spots, and Augustin should get plenty of run, especially before Meeks recovers from foot surgery. The C.J.'s—Watson and Wilcox—are emergency depth. Zimmerman will find most (or all) of his action in the NBA Development League. 

Reasons for Confidence

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There are plenty of reasons to worry about the Ibaka pickup. It looks costly, shortsighted and all kinds of dangerous. Between his sagging statistics and uncertain future, his stock appears declining but on a price tag that apparently isn't.

But push past the warning signs, and there are basketball reasons to get excited. He's an ideal defender for modern hoops—quick and nimble on the perimeter and oppressively long near the rim. He breathes life into the offensive end with a three-point stroke that's delivered 180 makes at a 35.6 percent clip over the past four seasons.

"For the past half-decade, we've all obsessed over the unicorn big man who can both shoot threes and protect the rim," Lowe wrote. "If you crafted a frontcourt partner to balance the weaknesses of Orlando's Nikola Vucevic, you would design that sort of player. The Magic just got that guy."

Ibaka is indeed a unique player. He's one of only three to tally at least 200 blocks and 100 triples over the past two years—All-Stars Draymond Green and Paul Millsap are the others. While Ibaka doesn't distribute like Green or score like Millsap, he isn't that far removed from these uber-versatile peers.

The Magic need everything Ibaka brings. They finished last season just 17th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in three-point makes and 20th in opponents' restricted-area shooting. Even after the personnel changes, all three areas could use a lift, and Ibaka can protect the paint for Vucevic while unclogging the middle for Biyombo.

Ibaka should grow as a scorer now that he's out from behind the shadows of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and Orlando needs the extra help without two of last season's top four scorers. Remember, Vogel helped mold Roy Hibbert into an elite defensive force, and Ibaka has never shared the floor with a pass-first point guard like Payton. This campaign could be Ibaka at his best.

Reasons for Concern

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As busy as Orlando has been, it's unclear exactly what was accomplished. The Magic got older and more expensive, sacrificing the potential of Oladipo, Nicholson and (going back to the trade deadline) Harris for low-ceiling vets like Green, Augustin and Meeks.

It's symptomatic of what the Magic are experiencing overall. There's a noticeable eagerness to help the franchise find its first playoff berth of the post-Howard era, hence the preference for proven commodities over up-and-comers. But here's the kicker—this team is in no way a postseason lock.

It's hard to tell how much the talent base has increased and, as Sporting News' Adi Joseph observed, even harder to see how the pieces fit:

"

Gordon and Green are both combo forwards whose games seem to fit better at power forward in the modern NBA. Yet they both might be forced to small forward to accommodate Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic, the post-scoring center who, at 25, was the anchor and veteran of the young core in the past. Hezonja's path to starting seems blocked, unless he moves to shooting guard and gets in the way of Fournier, whom they just paid $85 million over five years to keep.

"

If Ibaka doesn't morph into a superstar—his identity may be set in stone—the Magic need to develop one internally. Gordon and Hezonja own the highest ceilings, but neither is necessarily positioned for growth. The former will play this season out of position and could conceivably lose minutes to Green. If the latter finds a clear path to major playing time, it's only because one of Orlando's costly investments went awry.

Maybe Vogel finds a way to make it work and blends this group's athleticism and experience to create a dynamic defense. But for now, it looks like the coach is swimming in square pegs amid round holes.

Predictions

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The Magic could not have started their summer on a better note. No sooner had the dust settled on Skiles' stunning resignation, then the basketball gods—by way of an antsy Larry Bird—dropped a perfect replacement right in their laps.

Vogel should do wonders for the trajectories of Gordon, Hezonja and Payton. And with Ibaka and Biyombo in tow, the former Pacers coach could piece together some ferocious defensive looks.

But the offense lacks a focal point, the defense still has its weak links and the roster as a whole has no discernible direction. Orlando is taking a win-now approach, only it neither has the pieces to win now nor the prospects who would benefit from more patience.

The Magic have a higher skill level than last season, and if Vogel unravels this riddle of a roster, maybe there is a playoff prize at the end. But a year of treading water is more likely, meaning Orlando could be back at the drawing board again next summer.

• Final Record: 36-46
• Division Standing: Fourth in Southeast
• Playoff Berth: No
• B/R League-Wide Power Rankings Prediction: 24th

Unless noted otherwise, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.