Portland Trail Blazers Complete 2016-17 Season Preview
The Portland Trail Blazers' surprise 2016 playoff run was littered with asterisks.
They unexpectedly climbed an uncharacteristically watered-down Western Conference featuring a .500 playoff team (the Houston Rockets) for the first time since 1999. The Los Angeles Clippers roster Portland upset in the opening round lost All-Stars Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to injury during the series.
But the Blazers' postseason series win—only their second since 2000—was still something to be celebrated. After losing four starters and its sixth man in the summer of 2015, Portland reached a level of success no one saw coming.
"Our season was supposed to be over two weeks ago according to everyone else," Blazers swingman Allen Crabbe said after the series clincher, per OPB.org's Anne M. Peterson.
The question now becomes: What's next for Rip City?
Last season was about more than seizing opportunity. The talent pool was underrated, as two-time All-Star Damian Lillard and 2016 Most Improved Player C.J. McCollum displayed during career years. Since both are under the age of 27, the pair could be in line for further development, as most of this young roster is.
But will that growth, coupled with offseason additions, help Portland retain or even improve its Western Conference standing? Or might the Blazers face the type of regression many expected for them last season?
Biggest Offseason Move
Portland couldn't print money fast enough to spend this summer. The Blazers committed more than $334 million over five contracts, highlighted by McCollum's $106.6 million extension, Evan Turner's $70 million pact and the matching of Crabbe's $74.8 million offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets.
McCollum's extension carries the most meaning, as Portland ensured its place on the short list of the NBA's best backcourts for years to come. And keeping Crabbe was a calculated—albeit costly—wager that more elements of his game will sprout alongside his already lethal long-range shooting (career 38.5 percent).
But the Turner addition represents the biggest pivot of Portland's summer. The former No. 2 pick is a Swiss army knife inside the arc and was the only player to average at least 10 points, four rebounds and four assists in less than 30 minutes per game last season.
That said, his outside-the-arc game is nonexistent. He's a 26.2 percent three-point shooter over the past two seasons, tied for the 10th-lowest rate of the 276 players who attempted at last 100 triples. Given the high priority Portland places on long-distance shots—only the Houston Rockets have attempted more since head coach Terry Stotts took over in 2012—Turner's lack of touch could cause some offensive congestion.
As Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver noted, that's not the only reason Turner looks like an awkward fit:
"Turner's size relative to Portland's small backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum should help to a degree on the second front, but he's hardly a cure-all on that end. ... What's more, his weak outside shooting, deliberate style and desire to have the ball in his hands makes him a questionable fit alongside the ball-dominant Lillard and McCollum.
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Portland's other major external addition, Festus Ezeli, could fill a bigger need as a backbone for the 21st-ranked defense. But the oft-injured center must stay healthy to do that, and he's yet to put his knee problems behind him.
Rotation Breakdown
Stotts should open his rotation up to a competition, though the backcourt is already set in stone, as Lillard and McCollum paced the 2015-16 Blazers in minutes, points, shots and assists. Al-Farouq Aminu posses big-man length (6'9" with a 7'3.25" wingspan) and the agility of a wing, the key ingredients of a contemporary power forward.
The small forward and center slots should spawn international discussions, however. This is how the first and second fives will likely look entering the campaign:
| Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Mason Plumlee |
| Shabazz Napier | Allen Crabbe | Moe Harkless | Ed Davis | Meyers Leonard |
| Pat Connaughton | Noah Vonleh | Festus Ezeli | ||
| Jake Lyman |
Mason Plumlee was a full-time starter last season, and his playmaking became an asset when defenses swarmed Portland's star guards. Turner shared the floor with the ball-dominant Isaiah Thomas for the Boston Celtics and helped coax an All-Star campaign out of the diminutive point guard. But defense was Portland's Achilles' heel last season, and this lineup wouldn't mask that weakness.
If Ezeli is healthy—and that's a major if—his rim-protecting skills might warrant a starting gig. He held opponents to 43.6 percent shooting at the rim last season, while Plumlee and Meyers Leonard both ceded a 52.5 percent conversion rate.
"Ezeli is big and brawny, standing 6'11" and weighing 255 pounds, and he excels on defense," The Oregonian's Joe Freeman noted after the signing. "He'll instantly upgrade the Blazers' interior defense, adding muscle, athleticism and a dimension the team did not have last season."
Keeping defense in mind, don't dismiss the possibility of Stotts favoring Moe Harkless' athleticism and activity over Turner's versatility in the opening group. Harkless isn't much of an outside shooter, but neither is Turner. If Portland is sacrificing spacing at this position anyway, Harkless' low-maintenance offense and energetic defense could be more valuable than Turner's craftiness.
Reasons for Confidence
It's always a tricky proposition to bet against Lillard, but the Oakland native could be approaching his peak. He has a few efficiency hurdles to clear, but there's only so much volume that can be added to per-game marks of 25.1 points, 6.8 assists and 4.0 rebounds.
McCollum is more of a wild card, which is frightening given how far he's already climbed. While his counting categories were expected to jump with a larger role last season, the degree of incline was staggering nonetheless. More impressively, his efficiency marks featured similar spikes.
He added more than 10 percentage points to his free-throw success rate (82.7, up from 69.9), while simultaneously pushing past his previous bests from the field and distance. He shouldered a career-high 27.1 usage percentage, tallied a personal-best 21.6 assist percentage and kept his turnover percentage below his career average (11.4, from 11.6).
He plays like a proven commodity and has the compensation to boot. But he's only made 83 regular-season starts in his career. As much as last season felt like an arrival, it could have been a foreshadowing of even better things to come.
"This was my first full season of understanding scouting reports, understanding that I'm actually on the scouting reports now..." he said, per Freeman. "The role is going to increase, the pressure is going to increase and I look forward to the challenge of continuing to represent my last name to the best of my ability."
That can only portend good things for Portland. McCollum already had the widest on/off splits of any Blazer last season (plus-2.0 with him, minus-2.9 without), and he's still getting his feet wet.
Reasons for Concern
Portland's prolific offense—sixth in points per game, seventh in efficiency—could spur another playoff run on its own, but there's a low ceiling hanging above any one-way team. The Blazers had the least efficient defense of all 2016 postseason teams, and it's uncertain if this group will enjoy a notable improvement.
The undersized Lillard-McCollum tandem is an open invitation for opponents to attack. The former ranked 79th out of 81 point guards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus last season, per ESPN.com, while the latter finished 91st in defensive win shares of the 117 players to clear 2,000 minutes.
"Lillard and McCollum are the Lillard and McCollum of bad defensive backcourts..." wrote The Ringer's Danny Chau. "Among starting guard duos who played at least 60 games together, only three had a worse defensive rating."
There's no easy way for Portland to address this issue.
Lillard and McCollum won't stumble into a growth spurt, so bigger backcourts will always present problems. And it doesn't help that the two must run themselves ragged at the other end. No duo covered more ground on offense last season than Lillard and McCollum's combined 223.5 miles, according to Bleacher Report Insights.
Aminu is an average spacer at best (36.1 percent last season, 32.2 for his career), but he'd be the designated sniper alongside Harkless or Turner and Ezeli or Plumlee. Crabbe and Leonard could provide offensivee balance, but the defense would disintegrate. The Lillard-McCollum-Crabbe-Aminu-Leonard quintet shared the floor for 19 minutes last season and hemorrhaged an absurd 120 points per 100 possessions.
Predictions
Portland may have spent like a championship hopeful, but it doesn't picture itself as such.
"We are probably not going to make the quantum leap the salaries might indicate," Stotts told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. "As a coach, you take the money out of it. We just want to grow."
Internal growth seems imminent. Only the rebuilding Philadelphia 76ers have a younger roster, per RealGM, and most of Portland's youth will benefit from the experience of last season's surprise success.
But a developmental summer won't close the gap between the Blazers and the Western Conference elite. The Clippers, Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs look far superior on paper, the Utah Jazz seem poised for a steep climb and the Oklahoma City Thunder are scary even without Kevin Durant.
Unless Portland has more surprises up its sleeve, this group projects similarly to last season's—explosive enough to crash the playoff party but too flawed to catch the front-runners.
- Final Record: 45-37
- Division Standing: Third in Northwest
- Playoff Berth: Yes
- B/R League-wide Power Rankings Prediction: 10th
Unless noted otherwise, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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