Don't Overlook Geno Smith as the New York Jets' Starting QB in 2016

Up until July, three long-term NFL contract issues have been constant narratives in the slow, quiet offseason churn. Since before the draft cycle even kicked off, we heard about the franchise tags of Von Miller and Muhammad Wilkerson, plus the ongoing free agency of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Miller, an edge defender, signed a six-year, $114.5 million contract with the Denver Broncos. Wilkerson, a defensive lineman, signed a five-year, $86 million contract with the New York Jets. What this all means is Fitzpatrick's apparent divorce with the Jets is the biggest contract dispute in the league, and as of now, Geno Smith looks to be the team's starting quarterback heading into training camp.

The dichotomy of this quarterback soap opera is odd. In 2015, after signing a two-year, $7.25 million contract with the Houston Texans the offseason before, Fitzpatrick was traded to the Jets for what wound up being the 195th overall selection in the 2016 draft, a sixth-round pick.

Fitzpatrick was supposed to be a high-end backup in New York, where Smith, then a third-year second-round pick, had started 29 games in two years. The general consensus was Smith was finally getting it, as he ended the 2014 season with a Week 17 game against the Miami Dolphins that featured a stat line of 20 completions off 25 passes for 358 passing yards, three touchdowns and a perfect passer rating.

That was before the punch heard 'round the world. In August 2015, then-Jets defender IK Enemkpali punched Smith, breaking his jaw. That led him to miss the first few weeks of the season. With Smith off the field to begin the year, Fitzpatrick locked up the starting job.

Smith's live snaps in 2015 consisted of one game: against the Oakland Raiders when Fitzpatrick went down with injury after a Charles Woodson tackle. Smith performed well in that matchup, posting an 87.9 passer rating.

Despite on-field success and the fact Smith was on track to start 2015 as the Jets' starter, he's being overlooked as the potential quarterback of the future in New York. In the last five games he's played in, Smith completed 65 percent of his attempts for 1,266 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions.

Extrapolating that five-game stretch, a 16-game season would look like 314 completions over 483 attempts for 4,051 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. For the 2015 regular season, only three quarterbacks—Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Andy Dalton, whose combined contracts are worth $293.6 million—had seasons that featured 25 or more passing touchdowns, a completion percentage of 65 percent or higher and 10 interceptions or fewer.

At least statistically, there's no reason why Smith shouldn't be discussed as anything less than a developing passer who was sidetracked because of a cheap shot and a coach's urge to keep Fitzpatrick, the team's opening-day starter, as the status quo during a 10-6 season.

Just because the team won double-digit games under Fitzpatrick doesn't mean it can't improve or at least spend more efficiently at the quarterback position. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the team has offered Fitzpatrick a three-year contract worth between $24 million to $36 million:

There was also a report from Gary Myers of the New York Daily News that stated Fitzpatrick would have signed a one-year contract worth a guaranteed $12 million, though Rich Cimini of ESPN.com stated that contract wouldn't interest the team. Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News confirmed that sentiment. Smith would be much cheaper short term.

There are two prongs to the pro-Fitzpatrick Jets fans. First is they are willing to ride with the passer who gave them double-digit wins.

In 2000, first-year head coach Al Groh went 9-7. In 2001, first-year head coach Herman Edwards went 10-6. In 2006, first-year head coach Eric Mangini went 10-6. In 2009, first-year head coach Rex Ryan went 9-7.

New York fans have seen this story before, but along the way, those trains were derailed. The last thing this fanbase wants to do is rock the boat, especially at the most important position in the sport, even if it means choosing a 33-year-old journeyman over a promising 25-year-old.

Second, and this goes along with the boat-rocking narrative, is they seem to question Smith's presence in the locker room. This theory started when Jason Cole wrote a piece for Yahoo Sports after Smith's surprising draft-day slide out of the first round, claiming his drop could have been a result of predraft interviews:

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Two sources indicated that when Smith went on some visits to teams, rather than interact with coaches and front-office people, he would spend much of his time on his cell phone. Instead of being engaged with team officials, he would be texting friends or reading Twitter or a number of other distracting activities.

"All these other players who were in there were talking to the coaches, trying to get to know people and he was over there by himself," one of the sources said. "That's not what you want out of your quarterback."

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Between that, his then-teammate punching him in the face two summers later and All-Pro wideout Brandon Marshall saying he's scared because Fitzpatrick won't reply to his text messages, as he told Michael Rapaport on the I Am Rapaport podcast (h/t Damon Salvadore of the New York Daily News), it makes sense on the surface as to why Fitzpatrick would be looked at as the favorite in the locker room.

Need I remind you, though, the Jets thought enough of Smith to give him first-team reps in the summer and that the punch-thrower was immediately cut by the team, only to land with Ryan, who coaches the in-division Buffalo Bills, as some odd troll job. Marshall, who has been given multiple platforms as one of the league's most media-savvy stars, could be questioned too.

In 2015, Marshall posted the second-most receptions, receiving yards and receptions of over 20 yards in a single season for his career. He set personal bests in receiving touchdowns (14) and receptions of over 40 yards (five).

Again, this overly conservative fear stems from the same gut feeling: people hate change.

When you turn on Smith's film from those last five games, you're looking at the quarterback many thought he could develop into early in his career during the draft cycle. Coming out of Dana Holgorsen's offense at West Virginia, he's comfortable in empty and trips formations in the shotgun.

His first pass of 2015 was a 3rd-and-long situation, with six blitzers coming at his five pass-blockers. The result was a calm, collected Smith converting for a first down against man coverage. When the pressure is high, he is steady beyond his years.

Some will bring up the fact his pocket presence can lead to too many sacks, but if that were enough to keep a passer off the field, Aaron Rodgers would be a backup quarterback with the Green Bay Packers.

He stays calm in the pocket, relying on his linemen to do their jobs. That opens up short-yardage opportunities on early downs that other young signal-callers would have passed over for breaking the structure of the pocket, starting a dangerous scramble drill.

Having his own lineman bumping into him while getting a pass off is nothing to Smith. Taking a hit to make a timely checkdown to his running back doesn't bother him. Even when he takes off and runs, he embraces contact.

That mentality may lead you to believe his injury risk is high, but other than getting teed off on by a former teammate, he has had no major issues in the NFL.

On the other hand, his ability to stay in the pocket, within the structure of plays, has allowed him to defeat Cover 0 blitzes and throw impressive corner routes over those last five games he played.

Though you wouldn't think of a college "system" quarterback to be able to complete aggressive, high-difficulty passes, Smith has put that out on film.

The New York Jets don't need Fitzpatrick. They need to develop Smith.

On film, Smith was checking all the boxes asked of a young passer at the end of 2014. If not for an unfortunate episode, he'd be the Jets' hands-down starter in 2016. If Fitzpatrick does re-sign with New York, his biggest worry should be dethroning Smith, not the conditions of his contract.