Realistic Expectations for Phoenix Suns Rookie Dragan Bender in 2016-17
The Phoenix Suns passed on a number of productive college players to grab Maccabi Tel Aviv's Dragan Bender at No. 4 in the NBA draft.
Bender's long-term upside makes the pick a home run for a team that's in no position to compete out West anytime soon. He's built up hype over the years with flashes of eye-opening versatility during FIBA tournaments, Eurocamp, Basketball Without Borders and other scouting showcase events. Now it's a matter of whether he can convert those flashes into consistency.
Having played just 12.9 minutes per game overseas in 2015-16, Bender, the youngest player in Las Vegas Summer League at 18 years old, fits the description of a textbook project. Expectations must be tempered for the 7'1" Croatian who averaged 4.5 points last year between Euroleague and the Israeli League.
Team Fit
Though he'll prove capable of playing short stretches at small forward and center, Bender mainly projects as a 4. For now, the starting spot presumably belongs to veteran Jared Dudley, while Alex Len and Tyson Chandler share minutes at the 5.
Head coach Earl Watson must figure out how to allocate his backup power forward minutes early on, with the team having also drafted Marquese Chriss (another 4) later in the lottery.
Bender's skill set complements Len's and Chandler's—two interior-oriented anchors. While Len and Chandler do most of their work in the post or pick-and-roll game, Bender prefers operating mostly around the arc as a traditional stretch big who can spot up, face up or attack closeouts.
His potential to switch onto wings defensively is another fitting strength in a lineup with paint-stuck centers. Between Bender's size and foot speed, we could see him guard three positions at different times throughout the year.
As Watson noted during an appearance on Off the Edge with B-Train on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Friday, per Arizona Sports' Adam Green:
"He’s a blank canvas as well; he’s really skilled, he can play, he can move, he can shoot. I think he’s still growing. I think he has the potential to play the 3 in the NBA. Like, he’s 7-foot-1, but so is Kevin Durant — he’s almost seven-feet tall ... And what makes Kevin Durant unique at the 3 position is that he can shoot over most defenders at his position.
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However, during limited summer league action, Chriss looked more prepared to take on NBA minutes. By the time he's ready to roll, Bender's fit in Phoenix could look a whole lot different.
Concerns
Even with the "project" label, it's tough to defend Bender's 27.5 percent shooting mark through five games in Vegas (32 minutes per game). The fact that he took 34 of his 51 shots from behind the arc reflects a lack of confidence inside.
At 220 pounds, Bender struggled with contact down low (seven rebounds per 40 minutes). Though he flipped in a few tough runners around the key, he didn't show much in terms of shot-creating or playmaking (five total assists). He spent most of his time floating outside, waiting for catch-and-shoot opportunities—only he didn't appear ready to start stroking threes consistently (9-of-34).
At this stage, he's not ready to execute in traffic or offer reliable, everyday shooting.
Other than Bender's lengthy developmental timetable, there is concern about his long-term fit next to Chriss.
Unless Watson plays one of them at the 3, which would take away their quickness advantage, Bender or Chriss have to work together at the 4 and 5 spots. With one at power forward and the other at center, the Suns will be vulnerable down low. Neither player is a strong interior defender, and both are below-average rebounders.
General manager Ryan McDonough seems unfazed, however, telling Paul Coro of AZCentral: “I could see either one of them playing 3 (small forward) through 5 (center). I know that might seem like a stretch to some but those guys’ ball skills and their ability to move their feet on the perimeter, their length, their athletic ability at their size. They’re really versatile players.”
Expectations
Based on their play in July, Chriss seems more likely to receive the first crack at regular minutes. For Bender, that should mean NBA Development League time, where he'll have the chance to build up his reps and confidence. At least during the first half of the 2016-17 season, his NBA action will be limited. There will even be games where he won't play at all.
However, the Suns may not win a lot of games before the All-Star break. When it becomes obvious their postseason chances are over, Watson will feel the pressure to increase Bender's workload.
Once he has a shot to play through mistakes, expect Bender to demonstrate erratic yet capable shot-making skills, as well as the ability to take his man off the bounce and improvise with floaters and one-handers on the move.
We'll also see passes and decisions that highlight his IQ and feel for the game. Just don't count on production, steady play or big minutes in 2016-17. Project Bender won't fully launch until year two.
Complete Stat Predictions
- Minutes: 13.0
- Points: 5.0
- Rebounds: 2.5
- Assists: 0.5
- Blocks: 0.4
- Field-goal percentage: 0.42
- Three-point percentage: 0.28
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