5 Keys to Epic Golden State Warriors-Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7
Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder is upon us. This is it—for both teams.
After falling into a 3-1 series hole, a deficit that was supposed to be their death knell, the Warriors could complete an improbable comeback. Or will the Thunder do what they couldn't in Games 5 and 6, putting the reigning champions away for good?
We have the five keys to Monday night's Game 7, each of which will play an integral part in determining the team that gets to square off against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2016 NBA Finals.
OKC's Clutch Play
During the final five minutes of Game 6, the Warriors outscored the Thunder by 10 points. Oklahoma City also committed five turnovers down the stretch compared to Golden State's zero.
Was it just a bad night for OKC? Or was it perhaps a sign of something bigger and more concerning?
It's the latter. Even though the Thunder have been the better team for most of this series, they have wilted when it matters most, succumbing to both mental miscues and the superior play of the (potentially) best-ever Warriors.
Oklahoma City is 1-2 this series in games that enter crunch time and has put forth a Jekyll and Hyde act that is truly unnerving if you're a Thunder supporter:
| WCF Clutch Time | 10 | 58.8 | 113.2 | -54.4 | 24.5 |
| WCF Overall | 288 | 105.4 | 104.8 | 0.6 | 14.3 |
Ten minutes isn't a huge sample size, but it's enough to have cost Oklahoma City two possible victories. So it matters.
Most of its shot attempts are coming from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. In a vacuum, this is a good thing. But they have been part of the problem, per NBA.com's John Schuhmann:
Simple tweaks such as protecting the ball better to ensure every crunch-time possession ends with a shot would go a long way in strengthening the Thunder's late-game efforts. And they desperately need something more—anything—from their two stars.
If they cannot execute when the game is in doubt, with their season on the line, there won't be a season for them to save.
Battle of the Boards
Oklahoma City has mostly pummeled Golden State on the glass in this series. The Thunder are plus-26 on the defensive boards and plus-34 in the general rebounding department.
Though the Warriors have scrapped together two straight victories while playing to a net minus on the glass, the team that grabbed more rebounds won each of the first four games. And if OKC noticeably outworks the Dubs under the rim, it limits how liberally the latter's head coach, Steve Kerr, can use his smaller lineups.
Dictating the style of a game is a huge advantage. If Golden State slots one of Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli or Anderson Varejao in the middle, it has a body to throw on Steven Adams, Serge Ibaka or Enes Kanter. But it also diminishes the number of offensive mismatches the Warriors create, which allows the Thunder to impose their length and athleticism on defense with much more ease.
Only one of Golden State's players, Draymond Green, ranks top-six in total rebounds this series. The Warriors need another wing, be it Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala or Klay Thompson, to drum up his totals, lest they be forced to play Oklahoma City's brand of bigger basketball.
Status of the "Death Squad"
Golden State's celebrated small-ball "Death Squad" has not been able to consistently rip Oklahoma City out of its comfort zone. It was a different story in Game 6, but that outing was an exception, not the series standard.
Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Iguodala and Green outpaced the Thunder by 12 points during the 11 minutes they played together Saturday, with most of their damage coming in the fourth quarter. They were plus-11 for that final frame alone, shooting 7-of-13 from the field, including a scintillating 4-of-7 from long range, in just seven minutes.
Prior to that victory, though, the Warriors' Frenetic Five was worse. Like, a lot worse:
| Through Game 5 | 36 | 26 | 65 | 40.0 | 9 | 24 | 37.5 | -24 |
| During Game 6 | 11 | 10 | 22 | 45.5 | 6 | 12 | 50.0 | +12 |
Oklahoma City thwarted Golden State's small-ball terror with a ton of different looks through the first five contests. Thunder head coach Billy Donovan relied heavily upon a frontcourt of Durant and Ibaka on many occasions but wouldn't budge at others, using some combination of Adams, Ibaka and Kanter to overpower the undersized Warriors and beat the most feared lineup of the modern era into submission.
The side that gets the best of this lineup will likely win Game 7.
Golden State isn't its usual offensive juggernaut when it cannot space the floor to extremes, and Oklahoma City cannot expect to survive a protracted blitz from a unit for which, up until now, the NBA has had no answer.
Thunder's Supporting Cast
Strong displays from the supporting cast have helped push the Thunder this far—one win from the NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City is at its best when Durant and Westbrook don't need to go it alone. If more than one of Adams, Ibaka, Kanter, Andre Roberson and Dion Waiters play up to snuff and provide secondary scoring and playmaking, the Thunder are tough—nigh impossible—to beat.
Except this group didn't deliver enough of a punch in Game 6. Roberson hit all five of his field-goal attempts, and Adams was his usual aggressive self on the glass and defense. But Ibaka shot 1-of-6 on three-point looks, and Waiters (1-of-5) couldn't get into a groove on either end of the floor.
And if the road splits for Oklahoma City's foundation of role players are any indication, Game 7 should prove to be another tough slog. As SI.com's Ben Golliver wrote:
"So far in this series, the Thunder’s most important supporting cast members—Steven Adams, Serge Ibaka, Roberson, Waiters and Enes Kanter—have averaged a combined 53 PPG at home and 37 PPG on the road. During Game 5, those five players combined for just 28 points in a nine-point loss. Someone—preferably, multiple someones—will need to step up for Donovan.
"
Disappearing, as a chunk of this squadron did in both Games 5 and 6, is not an option for Oklahoma City's non-stars. It creates a typically detrimental sense of urgency that results in Durant and Westbrook getting little to no rest.
"Our team needs us on the floor," Durant said after playing 45 minutes in Game 6, per ESPN.com's Royce Young. "Us two on the floor, we give ourselves a great chance to win. So, we've got to fight through it. It's late in the season. Everybody's going to play their best players around this time. If we've got to play 48, we've got to play 48."
Sure, Durant and Westbrook, both 27, are more than capable of eschewing rest entirely. But they shouldn't have to—even now, with their season hanging in the balance. If they aren't able to take their usual breathers, it more likely than not will be a bad sign for the Thunder.
Steph Being Steph
Curry has not been horrible during this series. He is shooting under 43 percent from the floor but is still mustering 26.5 points and 5.5 assists per game while shooting a respectable, albeit uncharacteristically low, 38.5 percent from downtown.
For most of the six games, though, he has been a wild card.
The Warriors are scoring more points per 100 possessions with him off the floor, and his efficiency around the hoop has imploded. His conversion rate inside eight feet has plunged to 45.2 percent—a steep drop from the 62.5 percent he shot within that same range during the regular season.
And just look at how inconsistent his shooting percentages have been throughout games during this series:
| 1st Quarter | 37.5 | 26.3 | +6 |
| 2nd Quarter | 39.3 | 40.0 | -18 |
| 3rd Quarter | 51.4 | 52.4 | -9 |
| 4th Quarter | 38.1 | 30.0 | -1 |
| Crunch Time | 57.1 | 66.7 | +11 |
Still, Curry has shown hints of regaining his MVP form, even if only for fractions of a quarter. His shooting is off the charts in clutch situations, and most recently, he has found success slithering through the Thunder defense, drawing two or three bodies, only to sling bullets to orbiting shooters.
If he puts together a complete performance in Game 7, or if he takes control of the game for a quarter or two, Oklahoma City will, in response, need to play nearly perfect basketball just to have a puncher's hope of emerging victorious.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
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