Did the Denver Broncos Make the Right Call Letting Brock Osweiler Get Away?

Brock Osweiler got his payday, and now the Denver Broncos have a hole at the most important spot on the roster.

With ESPN's Adam Schefter reporting Osweiler will ink a four-year, $72 million contract with the Houston Texans, the Broncos have lost both quarterbacks with whom they reached and won Super Bowl 50. If the season started right now, they'd be trying to defend their NFL championship with Trevor Siemian under center.

Broncos general manager John Elway has been just as clutch a roster-manager as he was a quarterback; from hiring John Fox and signing Peyton Manning to letting Julius Thomas walk and firing John Fox, every major coach and personnel move has looked brilliant in hindsight—which is why Elway is about to add another Super Bowl ring to his collection.

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

"Right player, right price" is a mantra many executives (and armchair executives) spout at this time of year; going over your valuation for a player is a recipe for salary-cap disaster. According to NFL Media's Jeff Darlington, Elway stood firm at an average annual value between $16 million and $17 million—already above the reported $15 million mark Elway had publicly hoped to keep it under, as he told Pro Football Talk.

However, Elway told PFT that "as a quarterback," he'd place a high value on familiarity with coaches, system and supporting cast, knowing that Osweiler could be successful enough to set up a huge contract before he turns 30.

As I wrote in the wake of his impressive late-season performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, Osweiler proved he can play well enough to lead this Broncos team past the AFC's best. As a player better suited than Manning to head coach Gary Kubiak's offense, Osweiler couldn't hope for a better combination of teammates and scheme fit. 

Osweiler, it seems, didn't value all that enough to take a hometown discount and turn down $18 million per year from the Texans. In fact, per Darlington, Osweiler might not have viewed Denver as a great place to be at all:

Darlington's NFL Media colleague Ian Rapoport concurred. Apparently, being benched in Week 17 and left there throughout the playoffs didn't sit right with the young passer:

Elway's remarks after the fact, relayed via the team's official site, seem to confirm this hypothesis.

"We’ve stayed true to our philosophy of building a team with players who want to be Denver Broncos and want to be here. That’s been a successful approach for us," Elway said. "While we did offer a very competitive and fair long-term contract to Brock, we ultimately had to remain disciplined while continuing to assemble a roster that can compete for championships."

Osweiler is a member of a small club: quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds and given several years to mature who capitalized on an opportunity to play meaningful football. This is how it's supposed to work, and yet it practically never does. Against all odds, the Broncos developed a backup into a starter—but now he's going to be a starter somewhere else, and Denver is left without a quarterback.

Just like when he signed Manning with no Plan B, just like when he fired the wildly successful Fox to hire his old backup Kubiak, Elway is betting the farm on his horse sense.

Ed Andrieski/Associated Press

Here's where the question of fit and familiarity cuts both ways: Elway and the Broncos know Osweiler better than anybody else. They've seen him practice, they've seen him progress, they've seen him work the room and the huddle. They know what the assistants think about him, what his teammates think about him. When Elway set his budget for Osweiler, he did it with every possible bit of information—but the risk he's taking is enormous.

The quarterback market is incredibly slim; iffy signal-callers are highly sought-after. Sam Bradford, who after 63 knee-shredding starts has a lower quarterback rating (81.0) than Osweiler (86.0), also got $18 million per year. Sure, you don't want to give a bunch of money to a player who isn't thrilled to be there, but getting a player as good as Osweiler will be all but impossible—let alone for less money than the Texans paid.

Name	ANY/A	Passer Rating	PFF Overall	Sack %
Brock Osweiler	5.86	86.4	0.6	7.7
Peyton Manning	4.52	67.9	-6.3	4.6
Colin Kaepernick	4.94	78.5	-15.6	10.3
Robert Griffin III (2014)	5.17	86.9	-14.0	13.4

According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the Broncos are likely to inquire after another disgruntled quarterback: the San Francisco 49ers' Colin Kaepernick. 

Kaepernick, at his best, has been a spectacular player, a jaw-dropping thrower and runner who's made great defenses look silly. But it's been years since he has been at his best; in 2015 he was Pro Football Focus' lowest-rated quarterback.

Per Spotrac, trading for Kaepernick would bring $13.4 million in base salary and bonuses onto the Broncos' books; a frustrated Osweiler may not play $4 million better than a rejuvenated Kaepernick. Given the talent the Broncos have on offense and defense, they don't need 2012 Kaepernick to remain an AFC contender—they just need someone better than 2015 Peyton Manning.

Bleacher Report's Jason Cole reports the Broncos are unlikely to pry Kaepernick out of San Francisco anyway and are looking at Robert Griffin III, who is also years removed from being a difference-making quarterback—and he didn't even get off the bench in 2015:

Sad to say, Kaepernick and RGIII are the cream of the crop. Unless the New York Jets let Ryan Fitzpatrick walk, the Broncos could be hunting for unspectacular options like Mike Glennon, Jimmy Garoppolo and Zach Mettenberger.

If and when the Broncos acquire a young-ish veteran with some starting experience, the hole still won't truly be filled. They'll need to draft a solution for the future—draft, if you will, the next Brock Osweiler. As the Super Bowl champions, of course, the Broncos hold the very last pick in the first round; ideally, a quarterback like Memphis' Paxton Lynch could fall to them, or they could reach for a second-round prospect like Michigan State's Connor Cook.

No matter which quarterbacks the Broncos add at this point, though, Osweiler's departure means the Broncos are all but certain to be stuck with an apparent downgrade at the game's key position. It's yet another leap of faith taken by Elway: faith in his evaluation of Osweiler, faith in his evaluation of the available quarterbacks and faith in his coaching staff to make it work with whomever he brings in.

If it were anybody else, I might call it a terrible risk to take over a few million dollars. But the brand-new Lombardi Trophy on Elway's desk compels me to have faith that he knows what he's doing.