The Picks: NFL Week Three
Last week's picks: 7-9
(Upset of the Week: 0-1, Game of the Week: 1-1)
I'm still trying to figure out what format I'm going to make my picks in.
*new features this week are "Lock of the Week" and five locks to be top ten fantasy players (QB,RB,WR).
Detroit vs. Washington
Matthew Stafford is finally going to find his connections with Calvin Johnson in this game. They've been okay together but Johnson is going to really tear up an average Washington secondary. Lions get their first win since 2007 in this one.
Detroit 27, Washington 23 (Upset of the Week)
St. Louis vs. Green Bay
St. Louis is awful. Green Bay is coming off of a bad game and get a perfect matchup, playing in St. Louis. The Packers seem like they'd be great playing in a dome with speed all over the field like they have. Jennings and Rodgers are going to hook up a lot and the Packers defense will force a lot of turnovers.
Green Bay 35, St. Louis 16
Minnesota vs. San Francisco
Brett Favre, after leading the league in interceptions a year ago, has yet to throw a pick. He's going to make up for lost time in this game. The Vikings will be forced to throw as the Niners limit Peterson and Favre will show that he is basically the same guy from last year. San Francisco's defense and whole team is legit.
San Francisco 19, Minnesota 17
New England vs. Atlanta
Tom Brady has disappointed most people so far. He has not looked good at all through two games. It's easy to name ten quarterbacks who have played better without even thinking. Matt Ryan will show Brady up again,just like the rook Sanchez did a week ago, as the Falcons go into Foxburough and further threaten the Patriots season.
Atlanta 31, New England 27
New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
Chris Johnson is an animal. He played bad in week one, but does any running back play well against the Pittsburgh defense. He is the fastest back in the league and can break long runs better than anybody (yes, even better than Peterson). The Jets won't be able to contain him like the Steelers did and Tennessee will get a much needed win on the road.
Tennessee 20, New York 16
Philadelphia vs. Kansas City
Kansas City is very, very bad again this year. Their defense is non existent. No matter who is behind center or running the ball for Philadelphia this week, they will beat the Chiefs. There is no way their defense plays as poorly as it did last week.
Philadelphia 37, Kansas City 18
Tampa Bay vs. New York Giants
The G-Men couldn't have picked a better game to establish their running game in. Jacobs and Bradshaw have both been underwhelming this season and if they don't run all over Tampa's horrible run D, then Giants fans have cause for a lot of concern. Eli Manning is improved, but not good enough to carry a team by himself. However, Giants fans shouldn't be worried; Jacobs and Bradshaw will both have field days.
Giants 34, Buccaneers 10
Baltimore vs. Cleveland
Baltimore is the most complete team in the league right now. Joe Flacco is looking like a Pro Bowler, Willis McGahee looks five years younger, and Todd Heap is suddenly one of the best tight ends in the league again. Factor in that Ray Rice hasn't taken off yet and that the defense has yet to hit their stride and that is a very, very scary team. Expect those two things to happen this week against a Browns team that is in disarray.
Baltimore 31, Cleveland 0 (Lock of the Week)
Houston vs. Jacksonville
Jacksonville is not as bad as people think. They've faced two of the best passing teams in the league and have a weak secondary and have lost by an average of eight points. That isn't as bad as people have been making them seem this past week.
However, they are playing another one of the best pass defenses this week, so the Jaguars will playing from behind once again. Schaub puts up another great game in this one after a dismal showing in week one. The Texans are going to score a lot of points this year..
Houston 35, Jacksonville 26
Buffalo vs. New Orleans
Drew Brees may not have broken the yards record last season, but things are looking good for him this year. Even with health problems at running back the Saints have averaged 46.5 points per game.
Buffalo's defense isn't a significant upgrade from Phily's and the Saints are going to force turnovers just like in weeks one and two. Fred Jackson can only do so much for Buffalo.
New Orleans 44, Buffalo 28
Seattle vs. Chicago
Matt Hasselback, in all likelihood, will not play in this game. As we saw last week and last year, the Seahawks are not a team that can win with Seneca Wallace. He isn't a good enough quarterback to win games without any support from the running game (Justin Forsett really needs to be starting, he is their best back).
This is a perfect bounce back game for Matt Forte, facing a team that Frank Gore totally demolished. This one will be closer than many think, but Chicago will still pull it out.
Chicago 24, Seattle 20
San Diego vs. Miami
The Chargers are one of the best teams in football, but they really need a healthy Tomlinson to win in the playoffs this year. Sproles is one of the best in the league once he is in the open field, but is bad between the tackles. That's right, he is bad.
Rivers can beat most teams through the air anyway, especially now with his much improved Vincent Jackson playing like an All Pro. The Dolphins pass defense is not good so Rivers could very well put up similar stats to the Ravens game, where he tallied over 400 yards.
San Diego 30, Miami 17
Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is a dangerous team this year. Both sides of the ball have a lot of talent, but so does Pittsburgh. Palmer still hasn't gotten on track which is scary because the Bengals should be 2-0. Palmer is not likely to get back on track in this game, although Cutler did against this defense. Having Polamalu on the sidelines really hurts the Steelers secondary. The Bengals bring back memories of 2005 in this upset.
Cincinnati 17, Pittsburgh 13
Oakland vs. Denver
These two teams were supposed to be horrible this season, yet they enter this game a combined 3-1. Denver is suddenly a great defensive team with Elvis Dumervil leading the way. Oakland has been good despite Jamarcus Russell's accuracy problem.
Russell sure isn't going to be a whole lot better against tough Broncos defense and neither is anybody else for Oakland. Kyle Orton isn't exactly John Elway for Denver, but at least he gets the job done. The Broncos will continue to roll and remain undefeated after beating Oakland in the Black Hole.
Denver 22, Oakland 10
Arizona vs. Indianapolis (Game of the Week)
Kurt Warner looked like last year's Kurt after playing bad in week one. Peyton Manning has another solid game for Indy. This will be a very entertaining quarterback dual and a high scoring game.
Another interesting subplot is the two rookies Chris Wells and Donald Brown competing. Brown has been the better back so far, Wells has to want to show Brown up. This game is going to be shootout and in the shootout, always take the better quarterback.
Indianapolis 34, Arizona 28
Dallas vs. Carolina
All three Monday Night games so far have come down to the final drive and this one might too. These are two very even teams. The Panthers are desperate for a win to avoid an 0-3 start, while Dallas has a lot of pressure not to start 0-2 at their new stadium. Remember, in high pressure situations, Tony Romo can implode.
This is certainly a possibility against Carolina. Marion Barber will not be healthy, further increasing a chance that the Panthers could steal this one. One more week of picking the Cats, then I'm done picking them against good teams, but the circumstances point to a Carolina victory this Monday.
Carolina 27, Dallas 21
Five locks to be top 10 fantasy players this week
2. Matt Schaub
4. Philip Rivers
5. Peyton Manning
1. Brandon Jacobs
2. Michael Turner
3. Matt Forte
4. Fred Jackson
5. Maurice Jones-Drew
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Greg Jennings
3. Andre Johnson
4. Reggie Wayne
5. Roddy White
Game of the Week: Indianapolis over Arizona
Upset of the Week: Detroit over Washington
Lock of the Week: Baltimore over Cleveland
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