Indianapolis Colts Can No Longer Overlook Divisional Opponents Down the Stretch

For years, the Indianapolis Colts have been blessed with their placement in the AFC South. 

While the team has certainly earned its success over the last 15 years, particularly because of fantastic quarterback play, the AFC South has provided a more, let's say, cushy experience.

Every game in the NFL is difficult, but some are more difficult than others. 

Since the division's inception in 2002, the AFC South has been owned by Indianapolis, aside from the occasional slip-up. The team has won nine of the 13 possible division titles with little to no resistance. 

The Tennessee Titans have had just five winning season since 2002. The Houston Texans have had just four winning seasons over those 12 years,  while the Jacksonville Jaguars have just three winning seasons. The three teams have combined for just eight playoff appearances in those 13 years, and none of the three teams have made it to the conference championships since the Titans lost to the Oakland Raiders in the 2002 AFC title game. 

It's not just the Colts winning the division, however. It's the ineptitude of three other franchises to continually wallow among the NFL's dregs. The three teams have combined for 20 top-10 picks over those 13 years, and nine top-five picks.

The AFC South isn't the league's worst division every season, and it doesn't invalidate what the Colts have done over the last 15 years. Still, there is no question that the competition in the AFC South has been lacking. 

Even after Peyton Manning left Indianapolis and Andrew Luck entered the scene, the Colts' dominance in the division has stayed. The team is 19-2 in the AFC South with the trio of general manager Ryan Grigson, head coach Chuck Pagano and Luck in charge, including winning the last 16 consecutive divisional matchups. 

But there is hint of change on the horizon, and this season could be the turning point. 

At 6-6, the Colts are tied with the Houston Texans at the top of the division, with just two games separating them and the Jacksonville Jaguars. With games left against each of their division rivals, the team's performance against those teams will undoubtedly decide who wins the AFC South. 

In the past, this may have been an easy slate to look past, assuming three wins and an Indianapolis division title.

But while the Colts are certainly favored to come away with the division title, this can't be a stretch that the team, or anybody, overlooks. 

The Colts needed a 13-point fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Titans earlier this season, and that was with Andrew Luck playing. The team needed Jacksonville to miss two potential game-winning field goals to win in Week 4. The team did beat the Texans rather handily in Week 5 with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, but that was a team in the midst of a horrific slump, rather than the team we've seen over the last five weeks. 

The Texans represent the most pressing threat to the Colts' division title hopes, having turned the corner after their bye week. Houston has gone 4-1 in its last five games, including wins over the previously undefeated Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Jets and the New Orleans Saints. 

The key for Houston over that span has been its defense, a promising unit on paper that disappointed to start the season. But over the last five weeks, the defense has been rather stout. Even after a disappointing trip to Buffalo last week, Houston has averaged a negative-23.7 percent defensive DVOA, Football Outsiders' advanced metric that adjusts for opponent and situation (negative is better for defense).

Andrew Luck very well could be back for the Colts' home matchup with Houston in Week 15, but he will be trying to get integrated back into an offense that's been transitioning to a new offensive coordinator and is going up against a very tough opponent. 

Long-term, Houston might actually be the least-threatening team in the division, however, for the simple fact that they don't have a quarterback. 

The other two teams in the division, however, do. Both Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles have been impressive this season, with Mariota ranking ninth in the league in ESPN's Total QBR and Bortles ranking third in the league in touchdown passes with 27. 

The Jaguars have long-term pieces in place on offense, with Bortles throwing to Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, the former of which has established himself as a top-tier wide receiver in the league. Rookie running back T.J. Yeldon has flashed as well, though a more stable offensive line would greatly help his production. 

The Titans don't have as much set in stone outside of Mariota, but tight end Delanie Walker has quietly evolved into one of the league's most dangerous threats at the position, ranking third in Football Outsiders' DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement).

None of the other teams in the division have complete rosters as of yet, much less the organizational stability to consistently threaten Indianapolis. Still, there is hope at the quarterback position, the most important part of building, as well as elite, young talent at other positions. The Colts have their talent too, of course, but they aren't the only ones in the division, especially not after the struggles the team has gone through this year. 

But before the team can look forward to Houston in Week 15, or the long-term outlook of the division, they have a game against the Jaguars on Sunday. 

The Jaguars are coming off of a disappointing 42-39 loss to the Titans last week, but have gone 3-3 after going 1-5 to start the season, and the offense has flashed its potency. There are consistency and mental errors still to fix, but they are dangerous, particularly for a Colts team reeling from a 45-10 prime-time loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. 

With Matt Hasselbeck likely at the helm again, the Colts will have to slow down that offensive attack, and likely force a few critical turnovers as well. It will take a well-rounded team effort to beat the Jaguars, and you won't find a more critical late-season divisional game. 

At least, not very often in Indianapolis' history.