NFL Playoff Picture 2015: Wild-Card Standings and Week 11 Super Bowl Odds
Following Week 10 exposing several Super Bowl contenders, the NFL's top tier lost ground on playoff hopefuls looking to sneak into the postseason and catch fire.
Outside of the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals, the elite squads struggled on Sunday. At home against the last-place Detroit Lions, the Green Bay Packers suffered their third straight loss. In a game opening with a record-setting feat, Peyton Manning reached his nadir during a humiliating Denver Broncos loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, who suddenly have life in the AFC.
While the New England Patriots survived the New York Giants, both sides averaged 6.0 yards per play in a stalemate decided by a field goal netted narrowly inside the upright with one second remaining.
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Heading into Monday night, when the Cincinnati Bengals can remain undefeated by beating the Houston Texans, here's an updated look at the league's standings and playoff outlook.
NFL Standings
| New England Patriots | 9-0 | New York Giants | 5-5 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 5-4 | Washington Redskins | 4-5 | |
| New York Jets | 5-4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4-5 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 4-5 | Dallas Cowboys | 2-7 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8-0 | Minnesota Vikings | 7-2 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-4 | Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2-7 | Chicago Bears | 4-5 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 2-8 | Detroit Lions | 2-7 | |
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | Arizona Cardinals | 8-2 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 4-5 | St. Louis Rams | 4-5 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4-5 | Seattle Seahawks | 4-5 | |
| San Diego Chargers | 2-7 | San Francisco 49ers | 3-6 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-5 | Carolina Panthers | 9-0 | |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | Atlanta Falcons | 6-3 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-5 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 2-7 | New Orelans Saints | 4-6 |
Super Bowl Odds
| New England Patriots | 9-4 |
| Green Bay Packers | 15-2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8-1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8-1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10-1 |
| Denver Broncos | 12-1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14-1 |
| New York Giants | 18-1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 20-1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 22-1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 28-1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 28-1 |
Wild-Card Picture
AFC
| 1 - Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-4 | BYE |
| 2 - Buffalo Bills | 5-4 | @ NE |
| New York Jets | 5-4 | @ HOU |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4-5 | @ SD |
| Oakland Raiders | 4-5 | @ DET |
| Miami Dolphins | 4-5 | vs. DAL |
It was only a matter of time before Manning's struggles bit the Broncos. An elite defense led the AFC West powerhouse to a 7-0 start in spite of its legendary quarterback's downfall, but they couldn't bail him out on Sunday.
Manning opened the game with a milestone, passing Brett Favre as the all-time leader in passing yards. When NFL's Twitter account celebrated the feat, it couldn't have foreseen the carnage ahead:
Following the record, Manning completed five of 20 passes for 35 yards, nearly hitting Kansas City defenders more than his receivers with four picks. Down 22-0, the Broncos finally benched him for Brock Osweiler.
The Broncos still boast a three-game AFC West lead, but their star passer has now surrendered an NFL-high 17 interceptions along with nine touchdowns. Any wild-card squad, potentially the Chiefs, will welcome the vulnerable opponent.
Rather than harping entirely on the negative, let's give the Chiefs credit. After starting a dastardly 1-5, they have climbed back into the playoff hunt with three straight victories. The streak commenced with a 10-point triumph over the Pittsburgh Steelers, who lead the wild-card standings at 6-4.
The Chiefs are one of seven AFC teams with a positive scoring margin (plus-29) but the only one saddled with a sub-.500 record. A one-point loss to the Chicago Bears marked their lone defeat against anyone submitting a losing record.
In a top-heavy conference, Kansas City has plenty of time to exploit a demonstrably easier second-half schedule. The Buffalo Bills, one of its prime competitors for the second wild-card spot, is the only club left on the ledger sporting a winning record. The Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers are hardly pushovers, but it beats road games against the Packers and Bengals.
Before the Bills travel to Kansas City in two weeks, they'll face the undefeated Patriots. who blasted them for 40 points in Week 2. Bills head coach Rex Ryan looked ahead to his AFC East foe after silencing his old club on Thursday night:
The Chiefs get a more reasonable Week 11 bout at San Diego, meaning both playoff hopefuls might collide brandishing identical 5-5 clips.
NFC
| 1 - Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | @ MIN |
| 2 - Atlanta Falcons | 6-3 | vs. IND |
| Washington Redskins | 4-5 | @ CAR |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-5 | @ PHI |
| St. Louis Rams | 4-5 | vs. DEN |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4-5 | vs. SF |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4-5 | vs. TB |
| Chicago Bears | 4-5 | @ BAL |
A month ago, the only question surrounding Green Bay was whether it'd seize a first-round bye. Following an 18-16 loss to Detroit, who begged to fall to 1-8 with two missed extra points and a failed onside-kick recovery, the Packers have lost control of the NFC North.
Aaron Rodgers finished with 333 passing yards and two touchdowns, but it wasn't pretty. Again silenced for three quarters, he needed 61 pass attempts to please his fantasy owners in a losing effort. ESPN Stats & Info highlighted the rarity of Green Bay's slide:
During the three losses, Rodgers is averaging an uncharacteristically low 5.95 yards per pass attempt, well below his 8.19 career norm. They've never missed Jordy Nelson more than they did on Sunday, when Davante Adams turned 21 targets into 79 receiving yards.
In a weak NFC crop, the Packers are in little danger of squandering a playoff spot. They possess one wild-card ticket alongside the Atlanta Falcons, who spent the weekend lamenting Week 9's loss to Blaine Gabbert's San Francisco 49ers.
Yet they're suddenly in jeopardy of dropping the division to the Minnesota Vikings, who quietly improved to 7-2 with a 30-14 win over the Raiders. Since a bizarre 20-3 Week 1 loss to San Francisco, Minnesota has won seven of eight games, with a three-point loss to Denver serving as the lone holdover.
En route to their fifth straight triumph, the Vikings rode Adrian Peterson for 203 yards and a touchdown, giving him 961 rushing yards on the year. Behind a blossoming secondary, they've yielded 17.3 points per game this season.
Still not sold? You're not alone. Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz noted two reasons for skepticism:
Recovering loose balls is more good fortune than skill, and Minnesota has not faced a team with a winning record besides Denver. The schedule gets much tougher down the stretch, starting with a crucial Week 11 clash against the Packers.
The Packers can restore the status quo with a convincing win. A Vikings victory, however, would force everyone to take notice.
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