Vikings vs. Raiders: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
It has been more than a decade since the Minnesota Vikings and Oakland Raiders last competed in a game with more than draft position at stake.
Back in 2003, Minnesota suffered a 28-18 loss to Oakland on the road. The Vikings went on to finish the season with a 9-7 record, losing to the Arizona Cardinals during the closing seconds of a Week 17 matchup that eliminated Minnesota from playoff contention.
Fast forward to this Sunday, the Vikings will look to continue their strong season with a fifth-consecutive victory, while the Raiders attempt to get back over the .500 mark and fight their way back into postseason contention.
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Oakland, to the surprise of many, has been one of the better offensive teams in the NFL this season, which will provide Mike Zimmer with a tough test and a way to measure how far his defense has come. Norv Turner, on the other hand, will receive a favorable matchup against a below average Raiders defensive secondary, giving Teddy Bridgewater an opportunity to prove Minnesota's offense is more than just Adrian Peterson.
Preparation and a well-designed game plan may very well prove to be the difference this weekend, when the strengths and weaknesses of these teams are pitted against each other. Minnesota's defense and Oakland's offense have been consistently dominant this season, but only one unit will maintain its superiority through Week 10.
Offensive Game Plan
In comparison to its defense, Minnesota's offense has been rather pedestrian this season. Adrian Peterson has done his part, leading the NFL with 758 rushing yards heading into this weekend. But, the one-dimensional offensive trend has continued into this season, as Bridgewater has struggled with consistency during his sophomore season.
The Vikings' signal-caller has gotten the job done when it matters most but complete-game performances have been hard to come by through nine weeks. However, despite throwing for only 1,670 yards and six touchdowns to date, Bridgewater has produced top-notch efforts when asked to be the focal point of Minnesota's offense.
| Opponent | Comp% | Passing Yards | TD Passes | INTs | Passer Rating |
| Denver | 65.85% | 269 | 1 | 0 | 92.4 |
| Detroit | 71.43% | 316 | 2 | 0 | 118.3 |
| Average | 68.42% | 292.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 104.3 |
As the table shows, Bridgewater is certainly capable of producing above-average statistics and efficiency numbers—especially considering his two-game average includes a matchup against the Denver Broncos' elite defense—but he has been rarely asked to throw the ball 35-plus times per game.
According to Football Outsiders' efficiency measuring statistic, DVOA, Oakland's run defense ranks No. 13 (negative-14.1 percent) while its pass defense comes in at No. 19 (15.3 percent) in the NFL. Given that the Raiders are much better at defending against the run, Turner may opt to let his quarterback air it out a bit this weekend.
Peterson will still be the focal point and receive his weekly 20-plus carries, but this matchup statistically favors an increased workload for Bridgewater, and the emergence of Stefon Diggs as a consistent No. 1 target should make this game-planning decision an easy one.
Furthermore, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who threw for 402 yards against the Raiders, provided the Vikings with an excellent outline to build their game plan around last week. Mike Wallace compared Diggs to Antonio Brown earlier this season, and the fifth-round rookie will have an opportunity to emulate the best wide receiver in the league this Sunday.
"When you look at a guy, you can tell from day one who can play football. I always felt like he could," Wallace said, per ESPN.com's Ben Goessling. "Just the skill set, the way he runs his routes, the energy that he has. It reminds me of [Brown].”
Brown caught 17 passes on 23 targets for 284 yards against the Raiders, consistently blowing past cornerbacks D.J. Hayden and David Amerson for substantial gains over the course of a long afternoon for Oakland's defensive backs.
According to Pro Football Focus, Brown caught eight of nine targets for 119 yards against Hayden and hauled in eight balls on 12 targets for 159 yards against Amerson. He also earned a reception on his only target with Charles Woodson in coverage, which added six yards to his career day.
His longest reception of the day came late in the first quarter on a deep post with Hayden in man coverage and Woodson assigned with providing help over the top.
Pittsburgh lined up in a single wide receiver set with the Steelers electing to employ two tight ends, a fullback and a running back. Ben Roethlisberger is going to run a play-action fake to DeAngelo Williams with Roosevelt Nix selling the run as a lead-blocker, plowing ahead between the center and right guard; Williams then proceeds to run a five-yard out.
Heath Miller is going to chip and release, giving Christopher Hubbard, an offensive tackle lined up at tight end, an extra push before Miller departs down field into what appeared to be a eight-yard cross—Miller pulled up once Roethlisberger threw the ball, making it difficult to determine the exact type of route.
Finally, Brown runs a deep option route, electing to run a post instead of a vertical. He makes his cut to the inside roughly 12 yards deep, basing his route decision on Woodson's break toward him following a lightning-fast stutter-step.
Both Hayden and Woodson play themselves out of position on Brown's fake toward the sidelines. Hayden is caught off balance leaning toward the boundary while Woodson also breaks in Brown's general direction, leaving himself susceptible to a deep route.
Roethlisberger unleashes his pass attempt just as Brown splits the pair of Raiders defensive backs. By the time the ball drops into his hands, he had created roughly five yards of distance between him and the closest Oakland defender. The ball was slightly under-thrown, which forced Brown to make an adjustment and sacrifice a potential touchdown but significant damage was still done—he would have certainly scored if Roethlisberger managed to hit him in stride.
Working with limited information due to Miller and Williams not having enough time to complete their routes, this appears to be a naked boot concept that gives the receiver a deep option, keeps one tight end in to block and sacrifices a second wide receiver to sell the run fake with a lead-blocking fullback.
The shallow crosser, run by Miller, is intended to move Oakland's linebackers, forcing them into a tough coverage situation. Given Pittsburgh's personnel, the the Raiders stack the box with three linebackers and a strong safety, which suggests they were expecting a run play.
Roethlisberger's play-action fake doesn't get Woodson to bite, but every defender in the box plays the run, leaving the 39-year-old safety as Oakland's last line of defense in deep-zone coverage. By committing to an intermediate route with a break-off point at roughly the 10-yard mark, he leaves the Raiders defense susceptible to a deep pass—and Hayden did not help Oakland's cause by losing his balance and positioning on Brown's separation move.
Although Bridgewater throws primarily out of the shotgun, Turner has attempted to use play-action fakes out of singleback and I-formation sets in order to keep the opposition honest, as Peterson has been every defense's No. 1 focus to date. Minnesota willingly sacrifices a little creativity and disguise in order to utilize Bridgewater (shotgun) and Peterson (singleback; eight yards deep) in the formations they feel most comfortable with.
The Vikings have ideal personnel for this play design, with Diggs (Brown), Kyle Rudolph or MyCole Pruitt (Miller), Rhett Ellison (Hubbard), Zach Line (Nix) and Peterson (Williams). Furthermore, the intention of this play as well as the player alignments fit right into Minnesota's standard game planning materials used weekly in some variation.
Look for Diggs to be a major factor this Sunday, as Hayden and Amerson have both struggled week-in and week-out in pass coverage. In fact, fans may finally see the Wallace deep catch everyone has been waiting very patiently for against the Raiders.
Defensive Game Plan
The Raiders revealed their final injury report on Friday, and with it came some game-changing news. Per Scott Blair of CSN California, starting center Rodney Hudson is listed as doubtful for Sunday's contest and will more than likely be deactivated due to an ankle injury:
"Complete #Raiders injury report: Hudson doubtful; Murray, Cooper probable vs. #Vikings: https://t.co/12kKeFzPDa
— Scott Bair (@BairCSN) November 13, 2015"
Wishing an injury on a player is never acceptable, but the fact Oakland will be forced to deactivate arguably its best offensive lineman for a replacement-level player at a key position could very well prove to be a difference-maker for the Vikings.
To add insult to injury (literally), the Vikings will align Week 9 NFC Defensive Player of the Week Linval Joseph over the head of Raiders (expected) Week 10 center Tony Bergstrom.
According to Pro Football Focus, Hudson has allowed just four pressures up the middle this season, with only one resulting in quarterback Derek Carr being sacked. The Raiders' starting offensive line has collectively been among the best blocking units in the NFL, but the greatest weak spot falls at the right guard position, which Hudson has helped cover up.
Former Viking J'Marcus Webb has allowed 18 pressures this season, including three sacks and two quarterback hits. Without Hudson, the right A gap will be ripe for taking, even with sensational rookie Eric Kendricks expected to miss a second consecutive game due to a rib injury.
Second-year linebacker Brandon Watts will likely start as his replacement (with Audie Cole placed on injured reserve earlier this week), but rookie Edmond Robinson may see some snaps in typical pass-rushing situations. Assuming Robinson does see time, the results could be interesting, as he shares many traits with Anthony Barr—though he is even more physically and mentally raw with a considerably lower ceiling.
Regardless of the combination, Zimmer should lean heavily on his trademark double A-gap blitz look in an attempt to take full advantage of Hudson being sidelined. However, he may be forced to tone it down a little more than he would like due to Oakland's vertical passing offense that features two No. 1-caliber wide receivers.
The entire league has taken note of rookie standout Amari Cooper at this point, but his partner, Michael Crabtree, has quietly been performing at a comparable level.
| Name | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Yards After Catch | Touchdowns | Drops |
| Cooper | 68 | 45 | 653 | 326 | 4 | 8 |
| Crabtree | 77 | 47 | 591 | 196 | 5 | 3 |
| Total | 145 | 92 | 1,244 | 522 | 9 | 11 |
Multiple aspects of the above table stand out. Crabtree, though unanimously considered the No. 2 option, has earned nine more targets from Carr through eight games. Given that Cooper has dropped a painfully high eight passes, it stands to reason that Oakland's signal-caller may have more trust in the former San Francisco 49er during do-or-die situations.
The only statistic Cooper holds a distinct advantage in is yards after catch, totaling 326 to date. Simple math concludes this amounts to 130 more than Crabtree's sum of 196, or a benchmark close to that of an elite single-game receiving performance. In fairness, this is what makes Cooper the No. 1 option and a true difference-maker at the position, but the point holds that Crabtree has been unfairly cast into the Alabama rookie's shadow during his first season across the Bay.
In combination, this wide receiver duo has been targeted a combined 145 times, which amounts to 83.3 percent of Carr's pass attempts this season. Simply put, Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman (or potentially Trae Waynes) will need to put forth strong efforts if Minnesota is to contain Oakland's passing attack.
The absence of Hudson should affect Oakland's aerial attack to an undeterminable degree, as Carr has gotten used to working with a clean pocket this season. Still, this is a one-two punch that has decimated multiple defensive secondaries in 2015, and the Vikings must be prepared for a worst-case scenario.
Speaking of which, here is a taste of what the Raiders' vertical offense features.
This is a perfect example of what a 53-man roster boasting two capable wide receivers can do, as being able to execute a downfield passing play against a zone coverage built to prevent a big play speaks for itself.
Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave asked Carr to throw into a smash concept, which attempts to force a mismatch in coverage or move a defensive back into irrelevancy. Seth Roberts, the middle receiver on the trips side, is asked to key on the fact that Pittsburgh must account for Cooper.
He runs a deep corner directly into the spot where Cooper would cross through had he been running a vertical pattern. But, the rookie receiver actually executed a harmless 10-yard curl, which is mirrored by fullback Marcel Reece, who is split out wide next to tight end Mychal Rivera on the opposite side of the field.
Given that this fullback-tight end duo has only received a combined 44 targets this season (5.5 per game average), it is a bit of a risky personnel design, but Pittsburgh is forced to account for every receiving option since preventing a touchdown was the only priority at this point in the game.
The complementary route combination executed by Cooper and Jones seemingly convinces defensive back William Gay the former is looking to hit the Steelers deep. Using his eyes, Carr makes this possibility even more realistic, forcing Gay to commit to over-the-top zone coverage within Cooper's running lane. As a result, Oakland earned its mismatch in coverage; linebacker Vince Williams replaced Gay's spot on the field and is pinned with the role of covering Crabtree one-on-one.
Naturally, the former first-round pick out of Texas Tech exploded past a much slower Williams, finding a hole in the zone created by the smash concept. This newly-formed window begins to close quickly, but Carr was able to drop a long pass right into his receiver's hands—despite throwing off his back foot with dreadful fundamental passing technique. Crabtree makes the catch and finishes off the play in the end zone, tying the game at 35 following a successful extra-point attempt.
In this case, Oakland ran a five-wide set due to a desperate need to score, but five-step drops as well as both intermediate and deep route concepts can bee seen throughout just about any Raiders game. Carr himself has spoken about how much he enjoys throwing deep passes, as he told the media earlier this week.
"My mentality hasn't changed," Carr said. "I've always wanted to throw it down the field, especially in college, I wanted to throw go balls every play."
This desire combined with the necessary physical tools, superior positional intelligence, great preparation and (seemingly) a burning ambition to avenge his brother David Carr—a former No. 1 overall pick who failed to reach pre-draft expectations—has made him a perfect fit for this version of Musgrave's offense.
"I told you man, they should get all the credit," Carr said of his offensive line. "If I'm on my back, I can't throw the ball, as I've learned through family experience."
Key Players
Stefon Diggs, Wide Receiver, Minnesota
As noted in the offensive game plan, Diggs will be a major key to Minnesota having success through the air against a subpar Raiders secondary. Wallace has showcased plenty of speed and an ability to run a full route tree this year, but he remains inconsistent and, as a whole, a major disappointment through eight games.
Bridgewater has developed an undeniable trust in Diggs, and the quarterback-wide receiver duo have a blossoming chemistry that could finally unlock Minnesota's passing offense, which has been hidden away since Brett Favre's (third) retirement.
Michael Crabtree, Wide Receiver, Oakland
Excluding Carr, the first player Zimmer likely noticed on film was Cooper, so it should be assumed that he will be covered accordingly with Minnesota's top cornerback, Rhodes. But, the Vikings will also need to find a way to stick Crabtree, which doesn't have an exact outline due to Newman's concussion last Sunday and Waynes still being a bit of a question mark.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Raiders made a significant effort to avoid Darrelle Revis back in Week 9, targeting Crabtree 11 times and receiving excellent results. He finished the game with seven catches, 102 yards and one touchdown, with the majority of this damage being done against Antonio Cromartie.
If Rhodes is in shutdown mode on Sunday, which admittedly is a big if given Cooper's route-running skill and elite natural ability, Carr will simply go after whomever is responsible for Crabtree.
Also, Crabtree seemingly has a similar chemistry with Carr to what Bridgewater has with Diggs, as the Raiders quarterback noted during his midweek press conference.
"I throw [Crabtree] balls when I don't even know if he's going to break," he said. "I just hope he remembers what route he has, which I know he does. I'll throw it before he even breaks because we have built that trust. He's literally one of my favorite teammates I have ever had."
Simply put, the Vikings need to determine a good answer to this question, or the consequences could be dire.
Linval Joseph, Nose Tackle, Minnesota
Coming off potentially the greatest single-game performance by a nose tackle in contemporary Vikings history, Joseph will go head-to-head with a second-string center who has received only 16 snaps this season. He was an unblockable force against St. Louis' Tim Barnes and Chicago's Matt Slauson in back-to-back weeks, which should make this in-game matchup with the inexperienced Bergstrom a walk in the park.
The preview article from earlier this week argued in favor of an Oakland win primarily due to the Raiders' likelihood of winning the battle within the trenches; the massive mismatch (no pun intended) Joseph presents with Hudson expected to miss Week 10 is enough by itself to change that prediction.
Charles Woodson, Safety, Oakland
Hayden and Amerson have struggled in coverage; Nate Allen is just now working his way back into the fold; Taylor Mays started for a desperate Raiders secondary in Week 9. To be more direct, the only reliable defensive back the Raiders have had this season is the 19-year veteran Woodson, who leads the NFL with five interceptions this season.
Oakland will lean on Woodson to contain Diggs over the top if Minnesota attempts to take advantage of its greatest defensive weakness, and his playmaking ability—even at 39 years of age—is still enough to force a game-changing turnover.
This is not the same player who wreaked havoc for years against the Vikings while playing for the Green Bay Packers, but he is still a defensive weapon, and one that Bridgewater better know the whereabouts of at all times.
Prediction
After single-handedly causing chaos among Vikings fans by predicting a Raiders win earlier this week, I have made a change to my initial standpoint. Upon learning the news that Hudson will be trading in his shoulder pads for sweatpants this weekend, I immediately crossed off an Oakland touchdown.
This may seem dramatic, but it's completely reasonable given Minnesota's hottest defensive player will now be facing a backup player instead of arguably the best center the NFL has offered in 2015.
Furthermore, Oakland's snap-count advantage will take a major hit, as likely replacement Bergstrom cannot possess the same feel for the role as the man he is replacing. Continuing on even further with this same game-changing development, the Raiders now have to account for a heightened potential for a botched snap exchange, especially considering Carr frequently operates out of the shotgun.
Hudson is a major difference-maker for the Raiders, whether he is appreciated as such or not, and will unequivocally be missed if his injury status confirms the perception it inferences.
Minnesota will miss Kendricks again this week, but the interior demolition duo of Joseph and the returning Sharrif Floyd will make Oakland feel the loss of Hudson, and have Webb wishing he had remained a free agent upon being released by the Vikings.
The Vikings earn consecutive victory No. 5 and head home to face Green Bay with a chance to gain sole possession of first place in the NFC North.
Final Score: Vikings 24, Raiders 20
Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise noted.
Find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT to disagree with me on a more personal level.
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