Packers vs Panthers: What's the Game Plan for Carolina?

On Sunday, the Carolina Panthers are going to try to do something that hasn’t been done since 2010—make an Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers team drop back-to back-games.

While the Packers last lost consecutive games in 2013, that was when Rodgers was out with a broken clavicle.  With Rodgers at the helm, the Packers last dropped back-to-back games in October 2010, when they fell to Washington and Miami in overtime contests.  No team in the NFL bounces back better from losses than Green Bay does.

This is relevant, because the Packers lost their first game of the season last week against undefeated Denver.  They were actually somewhat blown out, as Denver’s punishing defense stifled Green Bay’s offense, holding them to just 140 total yards.  It was Green Bay’s lowest yardage total in two years, and the worst the Packers have ever had with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

A strong defense stifling Green Bay’s powerful offense?  Looks like Carolina will be looking to put up a re-run of last week’s performance.  They have the personnel, they have the winning record and they have the home-field advantage.  Yet despite all of that, OddsShark still reports them as three-point underdogs. Let’s look at what they’ll have to do to pull off the upset.

Offensive Game Plan

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Green Bay’s prime defensive weakness this week is in the secondary. Not only has it given up 251.3 yards per game—15^th-most in the league, which is about as bad as you’re going to get among teams as good as Green Bay—but two members of said secondary, Sam Shields and Quinten Rollins, are listed as questionable for Sunday.  That would leave Casey Hayward and Damarious Randall as the Packers' top cornerbacks, likely with free safety Micah Hyde filling in as a nickel cornerback.

We can even get more specific than that, using Football Outsider’s charting stats. They actually have Green Bay eighth against the pass. The difference between the gross numbers and FO’s charting stats can be chalked up to efficiency; because the Packers so often have the lead, opposing teams have to throw the ball more to try to catch up. However, they point three major holes in Green Bay’s defense:

• Green Bay is 29^th defending opposing teams’ top receivers, allowing 97.1 yards per game and a DVOA of 45.1 percent, meaning that those top receivers are 45 percent better than average against Green Bay.
•  Green Bay is 24^th defending passes to the middle of the field, allowing a DVOA of 45.0 percent.
• Green Bay is 20^th defending passes deep down the field, allowing a DVOA of 41.2 percent.

Altogether, opposing offenses have an astounding 179.5 percent DVOA  on passes deep down the middle. Some of that is a small sample size—they’ve only faced 14 pass attempts in that area all season long—but opposing quarterbacks are a very strong 11-for-14 for 315 yards and no interceptions on shots down the center of the field. No team in football has given up more yardage on such plays—it’s something they can attack.

Unfortunately, it’s not something Carolina is particularly good at. The Panthers don’t really have a top receiver, with Kelvin Benjamin out for the year. Green Bay’s been good at handling tight ends this season, so Greg Olsen might have a bit of a hard time taking advantage of the weakness—and, besides, it’s the cornerbacks, who would usually cover receivers, who are injured in this one.

The Panthers also have not been very good at those deep bombs down the center of the field. Their 54 yards are the fourth-lowest total in the league, and they’ve completed just one pass each to Ted Ginn and Philly Brown, with three interceptions. It’s not an area they’re particularly comfortable with, but this could be the week they send Ginn out on some long patterns and see what happens.

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The Panthers might, in general, be better off attacking the run defense, which Football Outsiders ranks as 25^th in the league. The Packers are more at full strength there, with a very strong front three of Mike Daniels, Datone Jones and B.J. Raji, but they are allowing 4.7 yards per carry. It’s looking like center Ryan Kalil will be ready to play, but guard Andrew Norwell will be out, so that’s better than last week, but not at full strength. Another thing to watch out for will be the health of Clay Matthews—he hurt his knee/ankle against Denver, but he’s listed as probable for this one. When he was out of the game, Denver ran right at his old position and picked up a long touchdown, as the other inside linebacker, Nate Palmer, is a weakness.

Whatever they do, they’ll have to keep Cam Newton upright to have success. Mike Daniels, coming off the right end, has been their most effective pass-rusher, and it will be up to Michael Oher to protect Newton’s blindside in one of the larger matchups of the game.

Defensive Game Plan

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If there was an easy way to shut down Aaron Rodgers, teams would have found it by now. He’s arguably the best quarterback in the league today, with a strong arm and the ability to throw on the move. Pressure would help; Denver held Rodgers down quite nicely with three sacks, four quarterback hits and 11 hurries, per PFF. Rodgers is only average under pressure, which is a definite step down from his normal status as one of the most deadly passers in the game.

The Panthers are still short-handed on the defensive line with injuries, so it will be up to Kawann Short, Kony Ealy and Jared Allen to play large snap counts and win their battles on the line of scrimmage. T.J. Lang is a tough matchup for Short on the inside, but other linemen, like right tackle Bryan Bulaga, haven’t been so good this season.

In fact, the Packers offense has seemed like it’s been a step away from the normal level we’ve seen them at all year long. There seems to be a timing issue, or some sort of rhythm problem between Rodgers and his receivers. This is an odd thing to say about an offense that’s in the top 10 in yards per attempt, but the loss of Jordy Nelson, the injury struggles of Davante Adams and the rookie growing pains of Ty Montgomery have left the offense looking less effective than it has in years past.

It will also help that the Panthers won’t have the same secondary they trotted out last year, when Rodgers and company shredded them. In the game last season, the Panthers were starting Antoine Cason, Melvin White, Charles Godfrey and Thomas DeCoud at safety. It’s safe to say that Josh Norman, Charles Tillman, Bene Benwikere and Kurt Coleman are several miles ahead of that group.

If the Panthers can duplicate what the Broncos did—tight man-to-man coverage in the secondary, swift and aggressive play from linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis and consistent pressure from the defensive line—then as good as Rodgers is, the Packers offense will once again struggle.

Key Players

Panthers WR Ted Ginn

The Packers have trouble covering opposing teams’ top receivers, and Ginn is the closest fit to that bill for the Panthers this season. He’s second behind Greg Olsen in all the major categories—receptions, yards and touchdowns. He also leads the team with 17.2 yards per reception. Still, if you were building a team and had Ted Ginn as your top wideout, you would know that’s a position you need to upgrade.

Still, if any receiver on the team can take advantage of Green Bay’s issue handling shots deep down the middle of the field, it’s Ginn. He has the speed to beat teams over the top—he just needs to hold on to the pass when it gets there. PFF has charted him with six drops this season, tied for third most in the league with Devin Funchess, among others.

Panthers LT Michael Oher

For the first time all season, Pro Football Focus gave Oher a green pass-blocking grade last week, at +2.4. It was his first positive grade in over a year, as a matter of fact.  Oher hasn’t been great, but he’s been notably better than he was last year in Tennessee, and better than expected. He’s still not a long-term answer at left tackle, but he’s kept the pocket relatively clean and been a significant upgrade over Byron Bell.

His task this week will be to stop Mike Daniels, the best pass-rushing lineman the Packers have, and either Julius Peppers or Nick Perry, or likely a combination of the two. The Packers have 23 sacks this season, fourth-most in the league, so it’s a tall task to handle their pass rush. It’s another major challenge for Oher.

Packers LT David Bakhtiari

Jim Mone/Associated Press

The Packers' worst pass-blocking offensive lineman is Don Barclay, but he was only playing due to Bulaga's injury. Their worst starting pass-blocking offensive lineman is Bakhtiari, who has given up three sacks, three hits and 14 hurries this season, per PFF.

He notably struggles against power rushes and bull rushes, and that’s something that Jared Allen still has in the tank. You think that would be a significant advantage for the Panthers, but Bakhtiari has actually handled Allen well when he was on the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. He’ll need to have another good matchup with Allen to keep Aaron Rodgers upright in this one.

Panthers LB Thomas Davis

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Thomas Davis has more pass-coverage snaps than any other linebacker on the team, per PFF, and it’ll be his job to take out Richard Rodgers, the Packers tight end. Rodgers is already just 20 yards short of his career receiving high, and he’s been good for a couple receptions, consistently, every week. With the receivers having such trouble separating against Denver’s defense, and the Panthers providing another great secondary to try to take away Aaron Rodgers’ receivers, the Packers could easily try to go to their tight end more; he does have the second-most receptions on the team, after all.

Assuming Josh Norman and company do their job, then, it will be up to Davis to take away Green Bay’s safety net. Davis has, at times, been victimized in coverage this season, as PFF charted him with allowing ten receptions against Philadelphia. What he hasn’t done is allow someone to catch a pass and break it up field. Against the Packers offense, holding them to short gains is about as good as you can hope for.

Packers S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

Every week, one of Carolina’s opponent’s top priorities is shutting down Greg Olsen, and this week, that task falls to Clinton-Dix.

Clinton-Dix, at 6’1”, is the tallest member of the Packers secondary still healthy; most of their cornerbacks are under six feet tall. That gives the 6’6” Olsen a major advantage against anyone the Packers choose to use to cover him. Last week, the 6’3” Virgil Green and 6’3” Owen Daniels had good days receiving for the Broncos against Green Bay, combining for six receptions for 105 yards. The Packers can’t afford to let a repeat performance happen this week.

Prediction

It’s worth noting that in their league-leading 11-game regular-season win streak, the Panthers have yet to beat a team with a winning record at the time. This is part of what’s fueling doubt about whether or not they are real contenders this season.

That changes after this week. The Broncos just showed what an undefeated team with a stellar defense can do against this Packers offense. This isn’t the same Panthers secondary that Green Bay destroyed last season; this is a great defense, especially against the pass.

It’s not going to be easy, and it could easily go either way. However, after seeing the Panthers pull out clutch win after clutch win this season, they don’t deserve to be three-point underdogs to anyone at home.

The defense keeps going, the Panthers extend their franchise-record winning streak, and Aaron Rodgers experiences back-to-back losses for the first time since the year he won the Super Bowl.

Final score: Carolina 27, Green Bay 24    

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.