Bengals at Bills: What's the Game Plan for Buffalo?

On Wednesday, I previewed the Buffalo Bills’ matchup on Sunday with the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals. To knock off the Bengals, the Bills need to enter this weekend’s game with clear-cut strategies on both sides of the ball, as on-the-fly adjustments will likely do only so much against what has been one of the AFC’s three best teams through five weeks. Here, I take a closer look at Buffalo’s specific offensive and defensive game strategies.

First, however, there are a couple of developments to cover. 

Entering the 2015 season, second-year Buffalo wideout Sammy Watkins was a trendy pick for a breakout year. His obvious physical tools, coupled with a year of NFL experience, led many to view him as a potential focal point for the revamped Buffalo offense. But through five weeks, Watkins has been underwhelming, hobbled by injury and struggling to make major impact on games. 

Watkins, it turns out, is aware of this. 

As ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak reported on Friday, the talented sophomore took to the media to express his frustration. “You’re making me look bad, and you’re making yourselves look bad. Why not make us both look good?” Watkins said. The wideout essentially demanded more targets—specifically asking for 10 per game—and raised questions about both his own maturity and his coaching staff.

On the one hand, young and talented professional athletes tend to think a lot of themselves, and plenty of would-be stars have been derailed by their own self-importance. Watkins should be more concerned at his team’s lackluster win-loss record than he is about his own stats.

On the other hand, Watkins is right. He should be getting 10 targets per game. Watkins has struggled in 2015, and so has his team. The two are not unrelated: In a vacuum, Watkins may be the team’s most talented receiving threat, yet he ranks fifth in targets and has the same number of catches as running back LeSean McCoy. Watkins’ slow start is partially the result of injury, but he’s been on the field all year.

(Incidentally, I stand by what I wrote on Thursday: Watkins has a calf injury. He plays in the NFL. People in the NFL get injured a lot, sometimes with life-changing consequences. If Waktins is not healthy, or if he risks further injury by playing, he should sit. But if he plays, he should get his targets.)

On another note, Buffalo coach Rex Ryan is apparently still deciding who his quarterback will be on Sunday. Tyrod Taylor, the usual starter, has thus far been the team’s most reliable offensive player. But he injured his MCL during last week’s game and is listed as questionable on the team’s official injury report.

Taylor, as I wrote Thursday, is planning to play. But Ryan refused to make an official announcement on Friday, saying “We’ll see.”

To wrap up the rest of the injury report: Watkins, Percy Harvin and Taylor were listed as questionable, while Aaron Williams, Marcus Easley and Cierre Wood are out. Easley, in particular, will be missed, as he’s been one of the few reliable special teams players on the Buffalo roster. Running back Karlos Williams, unfortunately, is also out:

Furthermore, WKBW Bills beat writer Joe Buscaglia reported Friday that Harvin took his normal rest days on Wednesday and Thursday but was limited on Friday. Harvin is usually listed as “probable” after completing full practice on Friday; this week, he was “questionable” after limited reps. There's been no reason to think Harvin won't play Sunday, but that's a situation worth watching. Harvin's game reps, if nothing else, could be restricted.

Star running back McCoy is probable, and all signs point to him playing. 

Incidentally, Cincinnati had all 53 players practice on Thursday. Injuries, to say the least, loom large among the reasons Cincy is 5-0 and Buffalo is not. 

Offensive Game Plan

Developing an offensive game plan is difficult for any football team. It’s downright impossible when you don’t know who will be on the field. 

So for the purposes of this analysis, I’m going to avoid the quarterback position. Succinctly put, if Taylor plays, Buffalo should look to make Charles Clay a major factor and should avoid forcing Taylor to make plays with his legs. If E.J. Manuel plays, the Bills should limit him to short, low-risk throws, while relying on McCoy and their defense to do most of the work. 

That said, there are a couple of things Buffalo should focus on, regardless of its QB. 

First, this could be a coming-out party for McCoy. Without getting into a discussion of McCoy’s health, the Bills’ handling of health issues and Buffalo’s long-term interests, it appears that McCoy will play on Sunday, and frankly, Buffalo needs him to perform. This would be a good game for the real Shady (no pun intended) to show up. 

McCoy, for his part, has already identified a weakness in the Bengals run defense:

Cincinnati is a below-average defensive team. Granted, it has played at least two games against solid competition. But the Bengals rank 21st in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 22nd in pass yards allowed per game and 18th in rush yards allowed per game.

Last year, McCoy was arguably the most dynamic offensive player in the league. The Bills should lean on him early and often. Establishing a run game will go a long way toward helping their quarterback.

And second, Buffalo’s passing game—regardless of its leader—should target Chris Hogan from the get-go. Hogan is no superstar, but he’s reliable, and he has yet to be a focal point in Buffalo’s offense. It makes sense for Ryan and Co. to depend on Harvin and Watkins, but both are injured, and it’s unclear if Harvin will play. 

Even if Watkins get his 10 targets, Buffalo needs to score more than last week’s 14 points to beat the Bengals. The 6'1", 220-pound Hogan has three inches and 40 pounds on veteran Bengals cornerback Adam Jones. It’s time to get him involved. 

Defensive Game Plan 

There’s really just one point to make here: Buffalo must force the Bengals to beat them on the ground. 

Cincinnati entered the year expecting to have one of the deepest running attacks in the game, and Gio Bernard has played fairly well. But Jeremy Hill has been entirely uninspiring, and the Bills are No. 3 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Buffalo's defense in general, regardless of early-season stats, is among the league's best.

Buffalo’s defensive line was pathetic in the team’s Week 4 loss to the New York Giants. And the D-line, like the rest of the team, has been beset by both injury and penalty issues. 

But there’s no lack of talent, and this is a must-win home game for the Bills. Andy Dalton has been sacked just six times this year. Buffalo needs to change that. There is no reason this Buffalo D-line cannot overwhelm the Bengals offensive group. 

Star tackle Marcell Dareus, in particular, has begun to recover from a slow start. He’ll see a lot of Cincy offensive guard Kevin Zeitler, who has been surprisingly excellent thus far in 2015. But with the exception of Seattle, Cincinnati has yet to play a defense of Buffalo’s caliber, and Dareus is one of the most intimidating matchups in the game. 

Dareus’ “slow start,” incidentally, is partially the product of the respect he earns. If Dareus is routinely double-teamed on Sunday, Buffalo’s linebackers—especially Nigel Bradham—could have a field day. Bradham ranks third on the team with 24 tackles and is tied for first with three tackles for loss. 

Of course, making the Bengals beat you on the ground is easier said than done. A.J. Green is arguably a top-five NFL receiver, and I discussed on Thursday the importance of tight end Tyler Eifert. But Buffalo’s secondary, even sans-Aaron Williams, has the talent to minimize Green’s impact. If Green and Eifert are stifled even a little, Buffalo’s defense should be able to focus on Bernard and Hill and give its offense a shot. 

X-Factor: Buffalo TE Charles Clay

On Thursday, I discussed Cincinnati tight end Eifert as the X-factor in this game. I stand by that assessment, but Clay deserves mention here. 

In fairness, Clay’s best game came in a loss, when he finished with 111 yards on nine catches against the Giants in Week 4. And in Buffalo’s three wins, Clay has averaged fewer than four catches and 45 yards per game. 

But this is a slightly unusual game. For one thing, the team may not have Harvin, and Watkins isn’t full strength. Hogan, even if Ryan gets him more involved this week, is hardly the sort of receiver who can carry an offense. And McCoy will be backed up by Boobie Dixon, who was thoroughly disappointing in last week’s win. 

In other words, it’s entirely possible that Buffalo’s offensive weapons on Sunday consist of McCoy, Hogan, an injured Watkins and Clay. 

Watkins will almost certainly draw most of Cincinnati’s pass defense attention, particularly after his comments on Friday. So if Harvin doesn’t play and Watkins sees a fair amount of double coverage, Clay and Hogan become the team’s top two receiving weapons. That alone magnifies Clay’s importance, as he has outperformed Hogan in every respect this year. 

Clay will be even more important if Manuel starts at quarterback. Not only will the team rely on McCoy, making Clay’s blocking even more essential, but Manuel will need all the help he can get from his targets. And Clay (in any situation) would be among his top three.Manuel would be making his season debut, and anything Clay can do to make Manuel’s job easier will go along way. 

Prediction: Bills 21, Bengals 20