Bengals at Bills: Full Buffalo Game Preview
This a big week for the Buffalo Bills.
Andy Dalton and the 5-0 Cincinnati Bengals travel to Buffalo on Sunday, taking on a Bills team eager to improve on a mediocre first five weeks of the season. The Bills (3-2) escaped with a victory last week in Tennessee, winning, 14-13, after falling behind 10-0, and are desperate to make up ground on AFC East leaders New England (4-0) and the New York Jets (3-1).
The Bengals have been one of the NFL’s most surprising stories in 2015. In his preseason forecast, ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey predicted the team would finish 10-6, after starting out 5-5. And for the past two years, many observers—noting quarterback Andy Dalton’s penchant for poor playoff performances—wondered if Dalton was a viable long-term solution.
Through five weeks of 2015, Dalton has answered the doubters. He currently ranks No. 2 in the NFL in passing yards, passing yards per attempt and total quarterback rating. And he ranks third in touchdowns, third in passer rating and fifth in yards per game. Perhaps most importantly, his team is undefeated.
Dalton has played thus far like an elite quarterback, and he has a dangerous receiver corps. All-Pro receiver A.J. Green is deservedly considered one of the league’s four or five best wideouts, when healthy, and tight end Tyler Eifert (incredibly!) has more touchdowns, more catches and more first-down conversions than New England superstar Rob Gronkowski.
The Cincinnati running game, furthermore, boasts two of the league’s toughest backs in Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill. The Bengals rushing attack has actually underperformed this year—Hill, in particular, has had a slow start—but the team still ranks seventh in the NFL in total yards and 10th in yards per game.
Buffalo is going to have its hands full on Sunday. Not only are the Bills suffering from widespread injury issues—more on that in a minute—but Buffalo has struggled mightily against the pass this year. The team’s passing defense statistics are disproportionately affected by what Tom Brady did to the Bills in Week 2, but Dalton poses a particular challenge.
Location: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
News and Notes
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A few quick points to highlight here.
First, Buffalo managed to rein in its much-maligned penalty issues last week, surrendering an acceptable 62 yards on seven violations. Head coach Rex Ryan’s strategy (making players do push-ups during practice for committing penalties) may have paid off, but this week will be a surer test.
It should be clear to all Buffalo fans that a win on Sunday would go a long way toward the Bills’ playoff hopes, and the team can’t afford to give Dalton and Co. any free yards.
Second, Buffalo’s defensive line played fairly well last week, sacking Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota twice and compiling five tackles behind the line of scrimmage. But the D-line was atrocious the previous week, in a loss to the New York Giants, and Buffalo cannot lapse in this regard against the Bengals.
Cincinnati’s offensive line has allowed just six sacks on the year, tied for third in the NFL. But Buffalo’s defensive line is talented, if not consistent, and is certainly capable of disrupting Dalton’s rhythm.
Dalton, incidentally, has thrown just two picks on the year; while interceptions are usually associated with defenders in the secondary, the ability of defensive lines to create pressure and force poor throws plays an inarguably crucial role. This could be a difference-maker for Buffalo on Sunday.
Finally, as ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak reported Tuesday, the Bills signed veteran QB Josh Johnson, who was released by Indianapolis earlier this week. Johnson is almost certainly on board to serve as a last-ditch safety net, in the event that Buffalo’s injury bug creeps into its quarterback ranks.
Injury Report
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Buffalo’s injury issues just keep coming.
First and foremost, NFL.com reported earlier this week that starting Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor would miss Sunday’s game against the Bengals, after suffering an MCL injury during last week’s game. The loss of Taylor would loom especially large, as the Bengals are a particularly challenging opponent and Taylor has thus far been one of the lone bright spots in Buffalo’s offensive performance.
Ryan, however, downplayed those rumors on Wednesday. As the Bills reported on Twitter, Ryan asserted that no official decisions have been made, and Taylor, for his part, is planning to play.
Should Taylor sit, he would be replaced by former Bills first-round draft pick E.J. Manuel, who competed aggressively during the preseason for the starting job. Manuel was actually quite excellent in the preseason, completing 20 of 30 pass attempts to go with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. For what it’s worth, fellow youngster Watkins expects Manuel to blow away all expectations if he’s called in to play, per Rodak.
Speaking of Watkins, the second-year wideout expects to play on Sunday, despite his injured calf, according to Rodak. Watkins appears to be taking what might be called a carpe diem approach to his calf injury, saying, “If it pops, it pops. ...There’s more life to live.” Watkins’ enthusiasm is appealing, and his presence on the field Sunday would make a big difference, particularly if Taylor can’t play.
But Watkins plays in the NFL. As you may have heard, NFL players have a habit of suffering painful, potentially life-altering injuries. Watkins is just 22. He should have years of football left. But that won’t be the case if he takes unnecessary health risks.
Buffalo should not risk torpedoing Watkins’ future. If he is medically cleared to play, if he can perform without undue risk of re-injury, great. If there’s any doubt at all, the Bills should play it safe with their young and talented wideout. And frankly, as Rodak points out in this smart ESPN.com post, the Bills have not been superb at managing injuries this year.
To wrap up injury notes: Star running back LeSean McCoy returned to limited practice on Wednesday, while safety Aaron Williams was placed on the injured reserve-designated for return list, per Rodak. Running back Karlos Williams remains in concussion protocol. The team has made no official announcements as to Karlos Williams and McCoy, though it appears more likely that McCoy will play Sunday.
Key Matchup
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Cincinnati WR A.J. Green vs. Buffalo CB Stephon Gilmore
Green, as I mentioned, is easily one of the league’s best wideouts. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 495 receiving yards, good for essentially 100 yards per game. He has three touchdowns, he’s converted 19 first downs and ranks sixth in the league with seven plays of 20 yards or longer. Oh, and he’s huge (6’4”, 207 lbs) and fast. (He ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash.)
Green will see a lot of Gilmore on Sunday, and with good reason. He routinely draws the opposing team’s most daunting receiver, including Indianapolis’ T.Y. Hilton and the Giants’ Odell Beckham Jr. and has emerged as one of the Bills’ most dependable defensive players.
Gilmore stands out for his strength and for his instincts. With respect to the former, it’s worth noting that while Gilmore has only 15 tackles on the year, every single one of them has been a solo tackle. (That is, no other Bills came in to finish the job.) Given that Gilmore is often tasked with huge, fast and strong No. 1 receivers, it’s impressive that he so regularly wraps up his man.
Gilmore is tied for the team lead with two interceptions on the year and ranks second on the team with 10 passes defensed. His ability to stay with Green, coupled with the pressure (or lack thereof) created by Buffalo’s defensive line, will be one of the two or three most important keys to Sunday’s game.
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X-Factor
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Cincinnati TE Tyler Eifert
Yes, I know. The X-Factor in this game is probably whether or not Taylor plays. And barring that, the next most obvious choice would probably be Buffalo’s running attack.
But it is Eifert (or, rather, Buffalo’s ability to defend Eifert) that will be the game’s real X-Factor.
Eifert ranks among the league’s top 10 tight ends in receptions, receiving yards and receiving yards per game. He leads all players at the position in touchdowns (five) and first-down conversions (18). He has absolutely emerged as a cornerstone of the Bengals offense, and his ability to find space in defensive seams has allowed Dalton and the rest of Cincinnati’s offense to sustain drives and capitalize in the red zone.
At 6’6” and 250 pounds, Eifert fits the prototypical build of a tight end. On the positive side, Buffalo has been quite good against tight ends: Over the past three weeks, opposing tight ends have averaged just four catches and 30 yards per game. Eifert is probably the Bengals’ No. 2 passing option, and while it’s difficult to assess his importance to their running game, the Bills appear well-equipped to handle him.
If Buffalo can snuff out Dalton’s second-favorite target, it will go a long way toward victory. But on the less positive side, Eifert and Dalton are probably the best quarterback-tight end combination Buffalo has faced since Week 2, when New England’s Gronkowski eviscerated the Bills defense for 113 yards and a touchdown.
Buffalo lost that game pretty handily, and its inability to guard Gronk was a big reason why. (In fairness, nobody can guard Gronk, but still. Can’t let Eifert beat you.)
Given the talent in Cincinnati’s backfield, Dalton’s performance thus far and the irrepressible Green, Bills fans better hope they can make Eifert a non-factor. But they should avoid falling into the trap that other Cincinnati opponents have encountered, by focusing entirely on Green and the running game and allowing Eifert to run amok.
Prediction
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Buffalo 21, Bengals 20
There are probably few people who expect Buffalo to win this game. There are a lot of good reasons why it won't.
Cincinnati is 5-0. Buffalo is 3-2. Cincinnati has two good running backs. Buffalo has two injured running backs. Cincinnati’s quarterback is performing at an elite level. Buffalo isn’t exactly sure who Sunday’s quarterback will be. Cincinnati just came back from a huge second-half deficit to beat the reigning NFC Champs. Buffalo almost lost to the Titans. The list goes on.
But there are two things working to Buffalo’s advantage.
One is intangible, which will undoubtedly frustrate the statistical acolytes among us. But the fact remains that Buffalo needs this win much, much more than Cincinnati does. The Bengals’ closest divisional competitor is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who currently start Michael Vick at quarterback. But a Buffalo loss would put it at 3-3, heading into a London matchup with Jacksonville before three consecutive games with each of its AFC rivals.
Buffalo will probably beat Jacksonville next week. But they probably won’t beat New England in Week 10, and the Jets have been raising eyebrows all over the league. If Buffalo is to make the playoffs, finally ending the league’s longest playoff drought, this is an essential victory to earn.
The other thing working in Buffalo's favor is its run defense. The Bills allow roughly 82 rushing yards per game, good for third-best in the league. And a lot of Dalton’s efficiency over the first five weeks of the season revolves around the fear that Bernard and Hill inspire in opposing coaches and defenses.
It’s conceivable that Buffalo’s ability to stop the run will allow the Bills to focus on other aspects of defense, keeping the team in the game and giving their offense a chance.
Buffalo needs to have a hot start. I wrote last week about the Bills’ struggles in the first half of games, and they cannot afford to fall behind early in this one. They also cannot surrender the sort of egregious penalty yards we saw in Weeks 1, 2 and 4.
Despite their underwhelming record, the Bills still have one of the league’s top defenses, and Cincinnati’s win over Seattle was mitigated by the absence of star running back Marshawn Lynch.
This will not be an easy game for the Bengals. I say Buffalo ekes out a surprise win at home and heads to England at 4-2.
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