Colts vs. Bills: What's the Game Plan for Indianapolis?

If there was ever a season for the Colts to go all out and get Andrew Luck his first Super Bowl, this is the one.

Still on an underpriced contract for a quarterback of his ability—the last year that will be the case—Indianapolis has done everything in its power to surround Luck with the weapons necessary to win the division again and make a push for the highest title in the game.

There are, of course, obstacles the team has to overcome this season if it wants to reach its goal, but there are in any team. The defensive and offensive lines have serious issues and as good as Frank Gore and Andre Johnson have been since joining the league they are both on the wrong side of 30 and could take a step back at any point.

But without a doubt this is the most talented team Luck has had around him since being selected No. 1 overall in 2012 and has been built for winning now, instead of the future. This could be an early milestone year for the young quarterback, who has the ability and circumstances to take home the MVP and lead the Colts to a championship.

It all starts this Sunday, and the season opener for Indianapolis isn’t an easy one as a trip to Buffalo, N.Y., looms large. The Bills have one of the best defenses in the league and added a number of intriguing offensive pieces during the offseason. Nothing is easy in the NFL and the Colts will get an early chance in Week 1 to see if they are up to the task this season.

Offensive game plan

AJ Mast/Associated Press

So here’s the thing about the Buffalo Bills defense. They are good at, well, everything. They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL—my vote would be for the St. Louis Rams, but I’ll hear the argument—and the linebackers are pretty good in their own right.

But guess what, they finished No. 1 in pass defense DVOA last year, according to Football Outsiders. Higher than the Cleveland Browns and Joe Haden, higher than the Legion of Boom in Seattle. This was the best pass defense in the league last season and the second best overall.

You add Rex Ryan into the mix as the new coach and it is a pretty safe bet the Bills are going to be just as scary defensively. So how do Andrew Luck and the Colts go about attacking a defense that doesn’t make passing or rushing easy?

The easy answer? Do both.

Frank Gore is in at running back and, despite coach Chuck Pagano acknowledging the veteran "pitch count," he will be a key part of the offense all season and is the best back the Colts have had in nearly a decade. The Bills weren’t as stifling against the run last year as some believed, finishing closer in rushing defense DVOA to No. 32 than No. 1, which means that even behind an average line the former 49er should be able to have a decent enough day to make a difference.

As good as the Bills are against the pass, there are flaws and ones that Luck should be able to easily exploit. Don’t expect much out of T.Y. Hilton, who will likely be hounded by Stephon Gilmore, one of the more underrated defensive backs in the league. Beyond that, the Colts could find a ton of success.

According to Football Outsiders, the Bills ranked 22nd against No. 2 receivers last season and with superstar Andre Johnson in as the second receiving option and rookie Ronald Darby set to be the second starter at cornerback, Luck should be looking at the former Texan a lot.

Against a Buffalo team without much offense to speak of, the Colts attack doesn’t have to be good on Sunday to win the game, it just has to be good enough. With Luck throwing to Hilton and Johnson, and Gore carrying the ball, they should be just that.

Defensive game plan

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If there has been one criticism of the Indianapolis Colts over the last three seasons it has been their inability to slow down high-powered running backs in the postseason, costing the team a shot at a title.

Last year it was the Patriots and LeGarrette Blount who absolutely obliterated the Colts on the ground en route to a 45-7 victory. Sure, there were other issues for Indianapolis on the night, but allowing 148 yards and three scores to Blount wasn’t the best way to go about winning that game.

Unfortunately for the Colts, their Week 1 opponent happens to be a run-first team. The Buffalo Bills have added a few interesting pieces on offense this offseason, none more so than former All-Pro running back LeSean McCoy from the Philadelphia Eagles.

Even if McCoy isn’t 100 percent for Week 1, he is ready to play and is more than capable of replicating the performance Blount put in during the AFC Championship Game. To come away from Buffalo with a victory, the Colts need to stop the run.

The Bills want to run the ball a lot, and they will attempt to do so against the Colts. The biggest issue with that plan, though, is the fact that Buffalo has one of the worst offensive lines in the game and the holes for McCoy or any of the trio of backup options will be few and far between.

With Vontae Davis shutting down Sammy Watkins, Tyrod Taylor not providing a serious passing threat anyway and Percy Harvin being Percy Harvin the Colts won’t have much trouble stopping any semblance of a passing game the Bills try to throw together.

Crowd the line, bring guys into the box and do whatever they can to stop McCoy and company from racking up big numbers and the Colts should be able to handle the Bills offense.

Key players and matchups

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OL Jack Mewhort

With the former Ohio State standout moving to right tackle the Colts see a pretty significant upgrade on the offensive line by replacing Gosder Cherilus, who has joined Tampa Bay.

While it won’t take much for Mewhort to be better than Cherilus was last season, there are still plenty of questions about the young lineman and what he is capable of doing at this level of football. He was one of the best tackles in the college game and was pretty good as a left guard last season, no one quite knows how good he is going to be with the shift to tackle.

Things don’t start off easy for Mewhort, though, who sees his second start at right tackle come against a star-studded line with a propensity for hitting the quarterback. If he can step up his play and keep Andrew Luck upright more than the line did last season, this position switch could be the decision of the offseason for the Colts.

RB Josh Robinson

As noted above, reports are that Frank Gore is going to be on a pitch count in terms of volume with the hopes of keeping him healthy for an inevitable playoff run for the Colts. Even if you don’t buy it entirely, any limit to their starting running back's touches means a boost for the backups.

If any of the backs do see a boost, it is going to be from rookie Josh Robinson. Vick Ballard is hurt, mediocre and shouldn’t play much of a role in the offense this season, leaving Robinson as just about the only option left to gain a few carries when Gore is rested.

LB Robert Mathis

The Colts aren’t bad on defense per se, just pretty average, and with the exception of cornerback Vontae Davis there isn’t a ton worth watching on the Colts' lesser side of the ball. So doesn’t the simple possibility of a return by Mathis, as reported by Mike Wells of ESPN.com, make him the most interesting player in the Colts front seven?

It does, which makes him a key player this week, even if he doesn’t end up playing.

DL Henry Anderson and David Parry

The Colts' already thin defensive line got a little bit thinner this offseason after the loss of Arthur Jones for the season, meaning that Indianapolis is going to have a pair of rookies in Henry Anderson and David Parry starting on the line.

College teammates at Stanford, the duo of Parry and Anderson might not have the experience one looks for from starting defensive linemen, but they are very talented and going against the Bills offensive line should be an easy introduction to life in the NFL.

Prediction

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Just purely based on their defensive prowess the Bills are going to keep this game close throughout and with one of the best home environments in the league there is a pretty decent chance they pull the offense. Imagine Luck getting sacked time and time again, a couple of untimely turnovers and the Colts losing doesn’t seem like an impossible dream.

In the end, though, the Colts are far too balanced offensively for the Bills to fully stifle, with Luck spreading the ball around to his fantastic receiving corps and Gore giving Indianapolis an elite talent at running back for the first time in years.

The Bills and Tyrod Taylor don’t offer a ton offensively and Indianapolis won’t need to light up the scoreboard to come away with a victory. Even if the Colts can score in the mid-20s, it will likely be too much for Buffalo and with Luck under center that is a pretty good bet.

Prediction: Colts 24, Bills 14