C.J. Anderson Will Be a Surprise Contender for MVP in 2015

As predictions go, Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson for MVP is up there with the more brazen.

The front-runners—Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Adrian Peterson—aren’t about to have their talent absorbed by the monsters in Space Jam. They’re not about to forget how to play their position, a la Robert Griffin III.

Simply put, Anderson will be better.

Before we delve into why that will be, it’s important to look at the prerequisites for an MVP and how the third-year player meets those prerequisites.

The last MVP who wasn’t either a quarterback or a running back was linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Anderson is a running back.

The last MVP who didn’t feature in the playoffs was O.J. Simpson in 1973. Barring a catastrophic season, the Broncos will be around in January.

It will mark an astonishing achievement if Anderson is in the running for the league's biggest gong come season's end considering that until Week 10 of the 2014 season, he was an extraneous member of the Broncos offense.

He had 17 carries for 82 yards and zero touchdowns in the first eight games. Monte Ball and Ronnie Hillman were proving the more favorable options with former head coach John Fox and former offensive coordinator Adam Gase.

But in the second half of the season, starting with a Week 10 performance against the Oakland Raiders in which he rushed for 90 yards and scored an incredible 51-yard receiving touchdown, Anderson stepped it up. 

In the final eight games, he racked up 1,057 yards from scrimmage and 10 all-purpose touchdowns. In Weeks 12 and 13, he clocked up a combined 335 rushing yards. He scored seven rushing touchdowns in the final four games.

None is this is to say Anderson was awe-inspiring in 2014.

The second half of the season was his breakout spell, and yet Cincinnati Bengals back Jeremy Hill managed 144 more rushing yards than Anderson through Weeks 9 to 17.

Anderson was great but not elite. So why is he a MVP candidate now, a year removed from a season in which he tied Russell Wilson in rushing yards?

Because the pieces have fallen into place around him.

Gary Kubiak replaced Fox as the Broncos head coach in January, and Kubiak will install a scheme that, based on past experiences, will bring out the best in his No. 1 back.

The same zone-blocking scheme that produced 1,538-, 1,750- and 2,008-yard seasons from Terrell Davis, a 1,487-yard season from Mike Anderson, 1,508- and 1,591-yard seasons from Clinton Portis and 1,614- and 1,411-yard seasons from Arian Foster will now be deployed in Denver, with Anderson at its crux.

Davis, Portis and Foster have proven to be successful in non-Kubiak schemes, but last year it produced a Pro Bowl season out of a player whose previous best season culminated in 619 yards and four touchdowns.

Justin Forsett was a run-of-the-mill running back in his first seven seasons.

In his eighth, with Kubiak dictating the offense, he was electric.

Below is a table of his rushing stats in eight seasons. It’s not hard to spot the anomaly.

Year	Team	Attempts	Yards	Yards Per Carry	Touchdowns
2014	Baltimore Ravens	235	1,266	5.4	8
2013	Jacksonville Jaguars	6	31	5.2	0
2012	Houston Texans	63	374	5.9	1
2011	Seattle Seahawks	46	145	3.2	1
2010	Seattle Seahawks	118	523	4.4	2
2009	Seattle Seahawks	114	619	5.4	4
2008	Seattle Seahawks	-	-	-	-
2008	Indianapolis Colts	-	-	-	-

To prosper in a zone-blocking scheme, it’s essential for the running back to have turn-on-a-dime-like agility. Fortunately for Anderson, he possesses such a trait.

At 4.12 seconds, his was the third-best 20-yard shuttle time in the 2013 draft of all running backs. According to the Denver Post’s Troy E. Renck, Anderson reported to training camp weighing 218 pounds, three pounds lighter than at OTAs and 25 pounds lighter than at training camp in 2014.

Anderson’s attitude toward the weight loss is admirable, as reported by Renck:

"

It's my job to make the line look right with the right cuts. Even this summer, I am going to lose even a little more weight, and get a little leaner. Sure I miss the burgers, the ice cream. Sometimes it tastes like I am eating the same thing everyday, but I know what it's going to do for me and the team in the long run.

"

Kubiak’s scheme relies on the presence of a fullback, something the Broncos haven’t utilised since 2012 when Chris Gronkowski was on the roster, as noted by Renck (h/t Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio).

The man equipped with the role is James Casey, who played under Kubiak at the Houston Texans for four years.

It’s further proof that the Broncos will be more run-focused than in recent years and that Anderson will see plenty of the ball.

What is likely to tilt the pass-run ratio further in Anderson’s favor is the quarterback under center.

Peyton Manning enters his 18th season with many questioning the state of his arm. At times last season, his throws lacked the velocity required to find tight spaces. Instead, the ball hung in the air for what seemed like an eternity.

In his last competitive NFL game, the divisional-round game against the Indianapolis Colts in January, Manning was 26-of-46 passing. He was woeful, consistently overthrowing his receivers. It was the sort of performance we’ve come to expect from the other Manning.

And Manning has done nothing in the preseason to suggest his arm is restored to the level that produced 55 touchdown passes in 2013. He didn’t lead a single touchdown drive in 11 possessions.

If Kubiak doesn't like what he sees from his quarterback in the opening weeks, then Anderson, not Manning, will be trusted to move the offense.

All evidence points to Anderson being a bell cow this season, something Kubiak admitted to wanting in August.

"I can tell you this, I believe in the (bell cow)," he said, per Renck. "And I believe it's up to the player to prove he can do that. If a guy goes out there and he shows he can play three downs, can protect the quarterback, and can handle it, then he should stay out there."

Of the 16 teams that gave up the most rushing yards in 2014, the Broncos face nine of them in 2015. Three of those teams—the Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders—they play twice.

The stars have aligned for Anderson this year. He has the skill set to flourish in Kubiak’s scheme, a scheme tailored to suit the running back. He’s lighter, ready to take on an increased workload. Kubiak has a history of leading his running backs to fantastic, Pro Bowl-caliber seasons.

Rodgers, Luck and Peterson will all attend NFL Honors, though they may have to watch Anderson collect the MVP award.