Breaking Down Indianapolis Colts' Likely Opening Game Starting Lineup
The Indianapolis Colts are not a particularly deep team.
If anything, that's what the opening preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, a 36-10 stinker, should tell us.
The Colts second- and third-string offensive and defensive lines got pushed around, and the team's skill players were sloppy on Sunday, which seems to be a common occurrence for Indianapolis.
Fortunately for the Colts, the starting units have been strong enough to mitigate some of that lack of depth over the past two seasons, and the team hopes that will be the case in 2015 once again.
With some additional veterans on board and rookies threatening to join, the Colts starters are prepared for what could be a historical season for Indianapolis.
Quarterback
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Starter: Andrew Luck
The only starter that really matters for Indianapolis is who starts at quarterback.
With Andrew Luck, the Colts are one of the top teams in the AFC and possibly a Super Bowl contender.
With Matt Hasselbeck, or somebody else, starting, the Colts are closer to a bottom-tier team. If anything, the team's loss to Philadelphia in Week 1 of the preseason reminded us of this fact. Hasselbeck played poorly, finishing 8-of-17 for 72 yards. Of course, third-string quarterback Bryan Bennett was even worse, finishing 4-of-16 for 35 yards and two interceptions after a promising start.
Nobody in the NFL is more important to his team's success than Andrew Luck, much like Peyton Manning was during his tenure in Indianapolis.
Luck is poised for a huge year with improved weapons, and the Colts will absolutely need it.
Running Back
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Starter: Frank Gore
The Colts signed Frank Gore to be the starter in Indianapolis, that much is clear. We would have known that without seeing him take a snap in training camp or organized team activities (OTAs). That's what a three-year, $12 million contract signifies.
But Gore has taken snaps in training camp and has impressed. He has been so impressive, in fact, that head coach Chuck Pagano is making guarantees:
"Chuck Pagano to @heraldbulletin yesterday: “I guarantee we will have a 1,000-yard rusher this year. Frank (Gore) has something to prove."
— Kevin Bowen (@KBowenColts) August 7, 2015"
The Colts haven't had a 1,000-yard rusher since Joseph Addai in 2007. Pagano's guarantee might not come true, simply because the Colts could try to ease Gore's workload to keep him fresh for the postseason.
Still, it adds to the perception that the Colts are all-in on Gore this season. Dan Herron and Josh Robinson are both interesting options if Gore's body betrays him, but Gore is the main man in the Colts backfield for the foreseeable future.
Wide Receiver
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Starters: T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson
Easily the strongest starting pair of wide receivers Andrew Luck has had at his disposal thus far in his career, T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson boast very different styles and strengths.
Hilton, a rising star among NFL wide receivers, has blazing speed and impressive tracking ability that has made him one of the top deep threats in the league. Earlier this offseason Bucky Brooks of NFL.com ranked him as the third-best deep threat in the NFL.
"It is easy to miscast the Colts' diminutive WR1 as a one-trick pony on the perimeter, due to his slender frame (5-9, 178 pounds) and explosive speed, but few NFL receivers have a more complete toolbox than Hilton. The fourth-year pro is an electric route runner with a keen understanding of when to use his speed to fly by defenders on vertical routes. As a result, Hilton already has tallied 17 catches of 40-plus yards, including six in 2014. Even more impressive: Hilton has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and dominated opponents despite facing some form of double coverage on nearly every snap.
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Fortunately for Hilton, double coverages may be more limited this season, with Johnson lining up opposite him.
The future Hall of Fame wide receiver has faced more than his fair share of double-coverages in his day but should see a bit less attention in Indianapolis offense. Johnson's size and massive catch radius should help him in contested catch situations, especially on third downs.
Already in the Colts' first preseason game, we saw this play out, as his lone catch of the day came with a defender draped all over him for a first down.
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Tight End
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Starters: Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener
At the end of this season, the Colts could have a critical decision to make on their young tight end pair. Coming into the league together in 2012, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener have been core pieces of the Colts offense ever since.
But both players' contracts are up at the end of this season, and the Colts might not have the cap space to re-sign both.
So, 2015 is a big year.
Both players will still likely start for Indianapolis, as the increased weaponry at the wide receiver position won't cause the Colts to completely go away from its two-tight end sets. The Colts have an overwhelming amount of options from those sets, making it very difficult for the defense to get the correct personnel group on the field.
As of right now, however, it seems that Allen may get the nod over Fleener in one-tight end sets, or11 personnel.
While Fleener can stretch the field a bit more, Allen is a more than capable receiver with a much better blocking ability than Fleener, allowing the Colts to put their most explosive receiving combinations on the field while still having a significant rushing threat.
In the Colts first preseason game on Sunday, Fleener got significantly more playing time with the second string offense, while Allen left the game with most of the first team. That doesn't mean that Allen is the clear No. 1 right now, and it's probably more a situational thing than anything else, but it's worth noting.
Offensive Line
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Starters: Anthony Castonzo, Lance Louis, Khaled Holmes, Todd Herremans, Jack Mewhort
Like it has been for the last three seasons, the Colts offensive line projects to be the lone limiting factor for the Indianapolis offense.
While the unit does seem to have a bit more stability than in years past, with a starting lineup already all but decided upon, there are still significant weaknesses that could keep the Colts offense from reaching its full potential.
The bookend tackles are the strength of the offensive line, with Anthony Castonzo finishing 2014 as one of the Colts' most important offensive players. Jack Mewhort, playing right tackle this season, played well for a rookie in 2014, and certainly has potential at tackle, but there is some uncertainty there.
For what it's worth (not much), Mewhort did have a positive 0.4 grade from Pro Football Focus in 20 snaps in the Colts' first preseason game.
But the interior is where issues lie for Indianapolis.
Lance Louis seems to have the edge at left guard, while Khaled Holmes has become the de facto starter at center. Veteran Todd Herremans should start at right guard after being signed as a free agent this offseason.
All three have their issues, which were especially noticeable during the game against the Eagles. The interior really struggled to get any kind of push in the run game, especially to a point where they could get to the second level and block linebackers.
Once in the season, the threat of the pass should keep linebackers from crashing down toward the line too much, but there are still certainly concerns about the Colts offensive line.
Defensive Line
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Starters: Arthur Jones, Josh Chapman, Kendall Langford
It's difficult to say much about the Colts defensive line, honestly.
Quite simply, it's a bland group.
Josh Chapman has been a pretty average nose tackle thus far in his career, failing to live up to unwarranted hype after being drafted in the fifth round in 2012. But he's certainly adequate against the run. Kendall Langford has wavered right around a similar level for most of his career, whether it be in Miami or St. Louis.
Both players will be candidates to be upended by rookies by the end of the season. Their backups, Henry Anderson and David Parry, combined for a positive 6.2 grade from Pro Football Focus in the first preseason matchup on Sunday.
But Arthur Jones is the biggest key for Indianapolis' defensive line.
Jones was a backup and rotational player to start his career in Baltimore but broke out as a full-time starter in 2013. This prompted Indianapolis to sign him to a five-year, $33 million contract last offseason, a contract he has not lived up to yet.
If Jones gets back to that 2013 level of play, he could play a huge role for Indianapolis. If not, the line's ceiling for 2015 could be one of the lowest in the league.
Linebackers
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Starters: Trent Cole, D'Qwell Jackson, Jerrell Freeman, Erik Walden
The Colts have a lot of linebackers returning from last year's squad, which has both it's pros and cons.
On the outside, the Colts struggled to get much one-on-one pass rush, while the inside linebackers' inconsistencies contributed to some of the team's most putrid performances.
But on the positive side, continuity is a good thing, and all of the Colts' returning starters have their merits.
D'Qwell Jackson is a key team leader and is a reliable tackler. He's struggled mightily in pass coverage, but the Colts' use of Clayton Geathers in nickel and dime packages could help alleviate some of that in 2015. Jerrell Freeman is a versatile, busy linebacker who can stay on the field at all times for Indianapolis. Erik Walden was a stout run defender in 2015 and might have been the Colts best front-seven member.
But the unit desperately needs a pass-rusher, which is what the Colts hope that Trent Cole can give them. The veteran was signed this offseason to a two-year, $14 million contract. A bit pricey, yes, but worth it if Cole gives them above-average pressure.
When Robert Mathis is fully healthy, he may join this starting group, but until that happens, this is the Colts linebacker corps for 2015. What may be more important for Indianapolis, however, is the backups.
Jonathan Newsome and Nate Irving in particular may have opportunities to crack the starting lineup by the end of the season.
Cornerbacks
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Starters: Vontae Davis and Greg Toler
The key to this pairing is Vontae Davis, who utilized last season to thrust himself into the elite cornerback conversation.
Davis isn't quite at the level of players like Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis, but he's certainly put himself in that conversation, as have players like Chris Harris, Desmond Trufant. Now, it will be interesting to see how Davis follows up that campaign. Can he replicate it, proving it was not a fluke and cementing himself in that group?
The Colts certainly will need him to. Davis is the Colts' most important defender, and the quality of the Colts secondary drops drastically without him in the lineup.
A big reason for that drop is Greg Toler's inconsistencies on the outside. Toler fits well with the Colts press-man scheme and has good ball skills, but he gets burned far too often and has consistently struggled with tackles.
On Sunday, Toler got burned early but was able to recover and break up a deep pass thanks to a horrendously underthrown ball by Mark Sanchez. He later took an awful angle on a screen to rookie Nelson Agholor, leading to a 34-yard touchdown.
Toler has his strengths, but the inconsistencies will keep the Colts duos from excelling.
Safety
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Starters: Mike Adams and Dwight Lowery
Fortunately for Indianapolis, the inconsistencies in other areas of the defense might be stabilized a bit by the consistent veterans at safety.
The duo of Mike Adams and Dwight Lowery is not a flashy one, and it likely won't be producing any Pro Bowls (despite Adams' reserve spot last year), but it's experienced and should be dependable.
Colts fans know what Adams can do after 2014. Consistently in the right spot, Adams isn't a playmaking safety, but still managed to take advantage of certain situations and finish the year with a career-high five interceptions.
Lowery is not a long-term solution at safety, but he's been a solid contributor wherever he's been during his career. So far in the offseason, Lowery has impressed his teammates and coaches, and he and Adams have built a cohesion that has been missing in previous years, per Kevin Bowen of Colts.com:
"For a defense striving for better communication in 2015, the backend should not be a worry.
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“It’s huge,” Lowery says of the continuity being built this offseason. “That’s where your chemistry gets developed, understanding of each other, how you communicate, playing style, so many different things you can benefit from. Having rep after rep after rep and being consistent with the guys that are in there, it allows you to be comfortable to execute whatever you need to execute.”
Rookie Clayton Geathers is a promising addition to the safety group, but the veterans should be the starters for 2015.
Special Teams
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Starters: Pat McAfee (P), Adam Vinatieri (K), Matt Overton (LS)
The Colts had one of the best special teams units in the league last season, mostly because their pair of kickers might be the most talented in the NFL.
While the Colts don't have the return units of other teams just yet, the punting and kicking has been stellar. Both Pat McAfee and Adam Vinatieri made the Pro Bowl in 2015, and quite deservedly.
Ideally, McAfee won't be too busy in 2015, while Vinatieri will be limited to more extra-point opportunities and fewer field goals. Still, it's nice to have a weapon at those spots when necessary.
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