Is 2015 a Make-or-Break Year for Andy Reid with the Kansas City Chiefs?

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs won a playoff game, Andy Reid was a tight ends coach for the Green Bay Packers. 

It was January 16, 1994. The Chiefs quarterback was Joe Montana, and their running back was Marcus Allen. Brett Favre was just 24 years old, and Reid was 35. He wouldn't become an NFL head coach for six more seasons.

Despite making the playoffs seven times in the 21 intervening years—including 2013, Reid's first in Kansas City—the Chiefs have been unable to make anything happen. With back-to-back winning seasons, the successful retention of monster pass-rusher Justin Houston and a much-improved receiver corps, Reid's Chiefs look potent in a watered-down AFC.

Will this be the year they finally break the streak? Will this be the year Reid succeeds where Marty Schottenheimer, Dick Vermeil, Herm Edwards and Todd Haley all failed?

If not, how much heat will Reid take—and how much should he take?

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Reid's career regular-season win percentage is a solid .588. Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, that's ninth-best among active NFL head coaches. In 16 seasons as a skipper, he's 150-105-1; his 45 games above .500 rank him tied for third among active coaches and tied for 18th all time.

When it comes to the postseason, though, Reid is 10-10. Despite nine double-digit-win seasons, six division titles and five conference title game appearances (four of them consecutive), Reid only won one conference title—and famously lost Super Bowl XXXIX.

That 2004 Eagles offense had everything: Donovan McNabb at his best, Brian Westbrook in his prime and 14 games of a healthy, motivated Terrell Owens. Defensively, the Eagles were even better.

Their second-ranked scoring defense was powered by an all-everything secondary: Lito Sheppard, Brian Dawkins and Michael Lewis all went to the Pro Bowl that year, and Sheppard and Dawkins were named first-team All-Pro. Linebackers Jeremiah Trotter and Ike Reese also made the Pro Bowl, and freaky pass-rusher Jevon Kearse led the team in sacks.

A close examination of the 2015 Chiefs reveals a different, but similarly stacked, roster.

In my recent ranking of the NFL's top quarterback/running back pairs, the Chiefs' Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles slotted in at No. 5. Though there's little doubt Charles is among the best in the business, Smith's contributions are deeply underrated.

In fact, Reid's current franchise quarterback puts up numbers comparable to his old one. Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, Donovan McNabb's production rates in his prime years as a starter (2000-2009) are spookily close to Smith's (2009-2014):

Name	Comp%	Yds/Att	TD%	INT%	Sk%	ANY/A	Rating
Smith	62.4	6.9	4.4	1.9	7.8	5.93	89.4
McNabb	59.5	7.0	4.6	2.1	6.8	6.15	87.8

Though McNabb had a better deep ball and was a scary-good runner in his first few years in the NFL, his field-reading was never exceptional, and his accuracy was erratic. Smith is also athletic, averaging a McNabb-like 342.5 yards rushing per season under Reid, and he's matured into an excellent game manager.

Though McNabb threw more often, Smith's better completion rate means they moved the chains equally well. They have similar touchdown and interception rates, though Smith throws slightly fewer of both. Their "average" prime season is effectively identical:

	Cmp	Att	Yards	TDs	INTs	Sacks
Smith	244	392	2,696	17	8	33
McNabb	270	453	3,192	21	9	33

All of these numbers include McNabb's dream 2004 season, where he posted career highs in completion rate (64 percent), touchdown rate (6.6 percent) and passer efficiency rating (104.7). Why did he play so well that season? In a word, Owens.

Terrell Owens gave McNabb the do-everything weapon he'd never had. Jeremy Maclin is not Owens, but the 85 catches, 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns he had last season would have been the best all-around receiving year in Chiefs history.

The only time Smith's had a receiver nearly that productive was in 2012, when Michael Crabtree had 85 catches for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns. Through eight games that year and part of a ninth, Smith completed a whopping 70.2 percent of his passes, threw touchdowns at a 6 percent clip and had a passer rating of 104.1—similar to McNabb's 2004 explosion.

Of course, Smith didn't get to finish that career year in the making, as he was Wally Pipped by Colin Kaepernick.

Maclin, who was drafted by Reid and played four years under him with the Eagles, can be that dominant receiver Smith so desperately needs. He's joined by budding star tight end Travis Kelce and third-round draft pick and combine superstar Chris Conley. All the ingredients are there for the Chiefs offense to make a quantum leap.

Defensively, signing Justin Houston keeps intact the second-ranked scoring defense of 2014, which was also a top-five unit in 2013. Coordinator Bob Sutton just has to keep doing what he's doing with the slew of talent he has, and the 2015 Chiefs could be every bit as good as the 2004 Eagles.

Expectations seem to be a lot softer than the talent level would indicate. Per Odds Shark, Bovada only puts the Chiefs' over-under at 8.5 wins.

Yet the Chiefs have won 20 games in two seasons under Reid. The only reason they didn't snap the playoff streak his first season in charge was one of the most stunning comeback wins in NFL history. The only team ahead of them in the AFC West pecking order, the Denver Broncos, fired their head coach and lost some pieces on offense.

Reid pulled the Chiefs out of a dismal period where they won fewer than five games four times in six seasons, and for that he deserves enormous credit. But if he takes this collection of talent and goes 9-7 again or fails to break the futility streak, real questions should be asked of Reid's ability to get it done when it matters.

The leather-lunged fans of Arrowhead Stadium are certified by Guinness as the loudest in the world, but they seem more eager to make excuses for their team than scream for real results.

"Sully" of FootballSavages.com dreads the seemingly annual posts like this highlighting Smith's potential to put it all together:

"

July. The month every year when we hear the weapons excuse for Alex and then get some obscure stat as to why 2015 is his year

— Sully (@SullyFootball) July 21, 2015"

In a subsequent tweet containing a NSFW word not embeddable in this space, Sully declares it "more likely" Smith still frustrates the fanbase, shortening drives and missing opportunities with overly conservative play—even if he does end up generating career-best numbers.

Perhaps in Kansas City, Reid has found the ideal situation for him: an enthusiastic, but not demanding, fanbase; a hand-picked general manager; and a patient owner. Consistently winning ballgames, but not championships, might safeguard Reid's job for as long as he cares to work it.

Even if Reid tanks with this talented roster, turning in an inexplicable losing season, he's not going to get fired. He's probably not even going to be on the hot seat. No, this is not a make-or-break year for Andy Reid.

But maybe it should be.