Best Potential Free-Agent Landing Spots for Tobias Harris During 2015 Offseason
Free-agent forward Tobias Harris could be on the move, and he could be en route to big money this summer. Having quietly emerged as an All-Star-caliber contributor in his two-and-a-half seasons with the Orlando Magic, the 22-year-old will be looking for the right opportunity to take his game (and name) to another level.
Suitors are already taking shape around the league rumor mill.
RealGM's Shams Charania reported on Friday that, "As Orlando restricted free agent Tobias Harris will pursue a maximum-level offer sheet on July 1 that the Magic possibly won't match, the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics have emerged as leading candidates for the talented forward, league sources told RealGM."
It's no surprise potential buyers are already lining up. Harris may not have household recognition, but he played an integral role for the up-and-coming Magic. The four-year veteran averaged 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists while adding serviceable defense to his repertoire. In a marketplace that's about to be flooded with television dollars (and the expanded salary cap that comes therewith), max money certainly isn't out of the question.
In theory, Orlando can match any offer Harris receives—but that doesn't mean it will. As Charania notes, "The two sides couldn’t reach an extension last offseason, Orlando sticking to offers below the $10-to-$11 million that Harris desired—and now promises to surpass."
Additionally, the Magic drafted a swingman (Mario Hezonja) with the No. 5 overall pick, which would seem to suggest the organization is preparing for life without Harris. Even if Orlando balks at max-level money, Harris is likely to elicit a sizable deal one way or the other.
But who's going to pay it? And which willing spender will be the best fit? The Celtics and Pistons may be on the early radar, but that doesn't mean they're Harris' best options. And while Orlando has been home for the last couple of seasons, it hasn't done Harris' name recognition any favors. It's time for a move, and here are five potential destinations ranked according to their ostensible appeal in Harris' eyes.
5. Detroit Pistons
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So maybe the Detroit Pistons aren't a premier free-agent destination, but they still belong on Harris' short list. Yes, the organization already selected small forward Stanley Johnson with the No. 8 overall pick, but that doesn't preclude room for Harris.
Even with Johnson, Detroit's most overt hole is on the wing. Andre Drummond, Brandon Jennings, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ersan Ilyasova ostensibly have the other positions locked down. Restricted free agent Reggie Jackson could add to that rotation.
An experienced small forward would be useful—particularly one who can score the ball. The Pistons ranked just 17th in offensive efficiency with 102.3 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Team Stats.
A swingman who can score inside and out might correct that, at least partially. Useful as Harris would be to Detroit's postseason ambitions, the bigger question is: What's in it for him? Are the Pistons really anything more than a lottery team with cap flexibility?
Bad as these Pistons have been lately, the franchise is due for a turnaround. And Harris could be a prominent component of that turnaround.
In Stan Van Gundy's second season at the helm, the Pistons should be more accustomed to his system and more integrated into the culture he's trying to build. These things take time, especially for clubs as young as the Pistons. Harris wouldn't find many short-term guarantees in Detroit, but he could rest assured he'd be wanted. If becoming a featured, legitimate All-Star is on his agenda, there are certainly worse situations out there.
4. Los Angeles Lakers
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Head coach Byron Scott finally has the semblance of an intriguing roster, and general manager Mitch Kupchak has had a lot to do with that. A healthy Kobe Bryant and Julius Randle certainly won't hurt, but the real story here is this month's selection of guard D'Angelo Russell with the No. 2 overall pick. Throw a premier free agent like Harris into the mix, and this team suddenly looks fairly respectable on paper.
The Lakers still have a steep hill to climb in the hyper-competitive Western Conference, but anything could happen with the right free-agent addition(s).
Harris would be an ideal complementary scorer alongside Bryant and Russell, capable of delivering at least 15 points per contest and competing on the glass. While Los Angeles could deploy Nick Young on the wing, he's probably better suited to lighting things up in a sixth-man capacity, and there's little doubt Harris is the more complete all-around player.
As is to be expected, L.A. has serious ambitions for this summer and beyond. The franchise would likely prefer to get its hands on a franchise-altering presence like LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol, both star big men who'd perfectly complement Randle on the interior with their range and versatility.
Harris isn't a bad Plan B or C, though. And with just over $35 million in guaranteed salaries entering the summer, it's also possible the Lakers pursue two high-priced targets in free agency. In that event, Harris becomes an even more attractive proposition—and so too would the Lakers.
Some Lakers fans are probably hoping for a sexier name, but Harris' performance would almost certainly bring them around in time.
3. Boston Celtics
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Head coach Brad Stevens has turned a ragtag roster into an overachieving postseason participant in virtually no time at all. That has to grab the interest of just about any free agent, particularly one who'd actually bring some respectability to said roster.
Harris might have to compete with Evan Turner for some minutes, but there's no reason the two couldn't coexist—either with Turner sliding over to shooting guard or in smaller lineups with Harris at power forward. And while Turner has continued to show promise as a playmaker, Harris would be a marked upgrade on the wing.
Put simply, there's a reason the Celtics are reportedly interested.
Like the other teams on this list, Boston has some serious spending power this summer. The only player making in excess of $10 million is veteran Gerald Wallace. The rest of the roster is composed of youngsters and bargains, leaving ample cap room to snag Harris.
From Harris' perspective, Boston is a rare and potentially appealing situation. It's a team without a star, a rotation deep with the prospective talent president Danny Ainge has steadily acquired amid an organizational rebuild. It's a team that plays together, somehow riding Stevens' guidance to an unlikely playoff berth and looking plenty feisty every step of the way.
So while the Celtics could certainly use someone of Harris' pedigree, they aren't desperate. Harris would be a very good player on an already-solid squad, perhaps the player who takes said squad to another level altogether.
For an ambitious free agent, that's the best of both worlds: a team that wants you but doesn't need you.
2. Portland Trail Blazers
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Everything is changing for the Portland Trail Blazers. The organization traded swingman Nicolas Batum to the Charlotte Hornets, and it appears to be on the brink of losing LaMarcus Aldridge via free agency.
The Columbian's Erik Gundersen recently reported that, "A Western Conference executive with knowledge of the Aldridge pursuit has told The Columbian that the free agent has already informed the Blazers that he will not return to the Northwest."
That report was quickly and unequivocally rebuffed by president of basketball operations Neil Olshey, so take it with a grain of salt. Sodium intake aside, though, there's a real chance Aldridge is wearing a different uniform next season.
Shooting guard Wes Matthews is also an unrestricted free agent, so it's entirely plausible star point guard Damian Lillard finds himself working alongside a very different cast in 2015-16. Harris could conceivably be part of it.
If the worst comes to fruition in Portland, Olshey and Co. will have plenty of money to throw around at the likes of Harris. The only problem may be convincing him to come aboard with a veritable skeleton crew in place.
When Lillard is the one leading that crew, however, you still have to like the Trail Blazers' core. You have to think Harris just might like it, too.
1. Atlanta Hawks
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Much depends on what the Atlanta Hawks decide to do about unrestricted free agent DeMarre Carroll. The 28-year-old swingman is due a fairly significant raise after making just $2,442,455 a season ago, and it's unclear just how much the organization is willing to spend on his services.
To be sure, Carroll has emerged as a reliable three-and-D contributor in his two seasons with Atlanta, supplying grit on both ends of the floor and even upping his production during the 2014-15 postseason.
That said, Harris reasons to have the superior upside. He's the more versatile player, and he's certainly more capable of carrying the scoring load for a club that also may find itself without starting power forward (and unrestricted free agent) Paul Millsap. In addition to Harris' abilities as a scorer, he could also spend some time at the 4 spot, particularly if Millsap is a goner.
Bracketing other free-agent investments, the Hawks could have upwards of $20 million to spend on new talent (with around $40 million in salaries already guaranteed, per BasketballInsiders.com). Harris would collect a significant chunk of that, but he'd probably be worth it for a club that's oh-so close to edging the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference's title conversation.
This team didn't win 60 games by accident. With the Hawks, Harris would inherit reigning Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer and an established system that was executed awfully well last season. Destinations like that don't come around often. If there's mutual interest, this spot may well make the most sense for Harris and the Hawks alike.
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