Houston Rockets Can Chase Big Names Via Trade, Not Free Agency This Offseason
Daryl Morey, general manager of the Houston Rockets, does not take the offseason off. Every year he at least tries to make a major move.
Three years ago, he landed James Harden via trade. Two years ago, he inked free agent Dwight Howard. Last year, he nearly caught Chris Bosh. Will he try for a big name this year?
In theory, there are two ways a big-time player can be acquired: through trade or free agency. Do the Rockets have the means to do either? And if they do, should they?
Free Agency
To land a big-name free agent, you need big-time money, and that’s problematic for the Rockets. Their ability to free up cap space is not what it has been the last couple of years.
Houston is coming off a trip to the Western Conference Finals, so the goal should be enough tweaking to get over the hump, not a complete and total overhaul.
They do have some “flexibility,” though. They have a team option on Kostas Papanikolaou. They also have cap holds on Josh Smith, Patrick Beverley, K.J. McDaniels, Jason Terry and the No. 18 pick. If they waived or traded away all of that for future draft choices or overseas players, their situation would look like this, per Spotrac.com:
| PLAYER | POS. | CAP FIGURE |
| Dwight Howard | C | $22,359,364 |
| James Harden | SG | $15,756,438 |
| Trevor Ariza | SF | $8,193,030 |
| Terrence Jones | PF | $2,489,529 |
| Donatas Motiejunas | PF | $2,288,205 |
| Pablo Prigioni | PG | $1,734,572 |
| Clint Capela | PF | $1,242,720 |
| Joey Dorsey | PF | $1,015,421 |
| Nick Johnson | SG | $845,059 |
| Incomplete Roster Charge (X3) | $1,575,279 | Incomplete Roster Charge (X3) |
| Total | $57,499,617 |
Jonathan Givony of Draft Express tweeted that the expected cap is $67.1 million:
That means that the most Houston can free up to spend, if they did everything that is completely under their own power, is $9.5 million. And there’s no way that they’re going to get a big-name free agent for that amount.
They could, however, trade Trevor Ariza for future draft picks if they were really desperate. That would get them up to around $17.1 million to spend (remember that you need to add about $500,000 for each player you trade away as an incomplete roster charge). And maybe they could offload Pablo Prigioni and/or Joey Dorsey on someone if they send a draft pick. That could drive the total to just under $19 million.
But now you’re at the point of gutting the team for a third star. And, it’s questionable whether there is any player who really has that much value and is obtainable. If you miraculously get LeBron James for that, you do it. But that’s not going to happen.
Per Jenny Dial Creech of the Houston Chronicle, both Smith and Brewer have a desire to return, which suggests they would be amenable to a favorable deal. Smith said:
"I like the future if we can keep all the pieces together. I like what the future holds for us. You never know in free agency what may occur. The city of Houston and this team has definitely embraced me for my individuality and the way I play the game. It would be great to do something special for the city and for this team.
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And Brewer agreed, “I love playing here. I hope we are back together. We made the Western Conference finals and hopefully everything works out and we are all back together next year.”
In short, the free-agency option is just not a realistically viable method to improve. The Rockets are better off using the cap space they have to retain their own free agents.
Trading
Trading for players is more workable, and that has a lot to do with the weirdness of soft caps. The Rockets can add a more expensive player by utilizing the trade market. By rule, a team can take back 125 percent plus $100,000 of whatever salaries they send out if they are over the cap.
So, for example, a trade package involving Terrence Jones, Ariza, Papanikolaou, Dorsey, Prigioni (the last two for filler) and the New Orleans Pelicans' pick would allow Houston to take back as much as $22.9 million in salary. In other words, a true max contract.
That would allow them to keep their exceptions as well, so they could still re-sign Patrick Beverley and K.J. McDaniels using their Bird rights. According to cap expert Mark Deeks, though, they do retain the rights on Brewer.
They would also retain their mid-level exception, which could be used on Josh Smith.
That would mean just two hits to the core group of players. But with Donatas Motiejunas and Smith at power forward and Brewer and McDaniels at small forward, they would have players who could cover those roles without missing an awful lot.
Imagining a Deal
There are two players—LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love—who would be exceptional in the Rockets offense, particularly the latter. Here’s a possible “fake trade” as an example of what the Rockets could do.
The Rockets send the Cleveland Cavaliers Ariza, Papanikolaou and Jones for Kevin Love. This deal assumes that Love either opts in for next year or agrees to a sign-and-trade. If needed, they could include Prigioni and Dorsey for extra ballast and/or the Pelicans' pick for incentive.
Is there any reason on earth Cleveland would consider it?
There actually is. First, Love isn’t being fully utilized in Cleveland for various reasons, but mostly because he’s the third option in the offense behind LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. Ergo, the question is not: Is Love worth a max contract? It is: Is Love worth a max deal to the Cavs.
Love averaged 17.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per 36 minutes last year, per Basketball-Refernece.com. Jones averaged 15.6 points and 8.9 rebounds.
Love, if he doesn’t opt out of his contract, is going to cost about $13 million more than Jones. Are 1.9 points and 1.5 rebounds per 36 minutes worth $13 million?
Also, adding Ariza has a massive benefit for Cleveland as he gives them another starting-caliber small forward. Thus, when the Cavs want to go small, they can move James to the 4 and have a legit two-way player at the 3 who would complement James nicely on both ends of the court.
Finally, it allows the Cavs to save money. Per Spotrac, their current contracts and holds come to $88.3 million. Love and J.R. Smith could both make more money by opting out of theirs and probably will. In addition, Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova are both restricted free agents who will go for more than their cap hold suggests.
Thompson alone has already turned down a $13 million offer and should easily make more than that after the postseason he's had.
To keep the band together, it's going to cost Cleveland well over $100 million. And that’s just not going to happen. They know they don’t need Love to contend for a title. Making the trade allows them to keep the bulk of the group responsible for their Finals run together.
They could arguably get better and deeper for cheaper. So, yes, they at least think about it.
Is it worth it for the Rockets, though? Love is about as perfect a fit as you can ask for in Houston’s offense, with a heavy emphasis on three-point shots and fast breaks. His court-stretching would work wonders for Harden and Howard in the paint. His outlet passing is arguably the best in the league.
Defensively, there might be more questions raised. Houston would be dealing away their best wing defender and acquiring a player with a questionable defensive reputation. However, if they did the move, they could let Josh Smith walk and use their mid-level exception on Al-Farouq Aminu or Mike Dunleavy Jr., both of whom have defensive real plus-minus numbers comparable with Ariza, per ESPN.com.
And an offense that has Harden surrounded by Beverley, Dunleavy, Love and Howard should be lethal enough to more than offset whatever they lose on defense.
You can argue that this wouldn’t meet the Rockets’ greatest need, which is a starting-caliber point guard, but Love does have shot-creating abilities and is a terrific passer. If you prefer, the Rockets might try to put together a similar sign-and-trade package to bring back Ty Lawson.
The point is that there are options that Morey has in the trade market that just aren’t available in free agency. And the plus to this end of things is that if he strikes out, he doesn’t have to give up half the team to do so, as he did last year.
In short, it’s probably worth exploring what’s available—but only if it makes the team better. And, if history is any indication, Morey will be active there. It’s never a boring offseason for Houston fans, and this summer will be no different.
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