Breaking Up Would Be Best Move for Greg Monroe and Detroit Pistons
Greg Monroe and the Detroit Pistons are still better off without one another.
In the time since coach and president Stan Van Gundy waived Josh Smith, the contrary has been entertained. But the clear solution to this yearlong snafu hasn't changed.
Neither side will admit it just yet, of course. Monroe finished up the regular season maintaining that he hasn't ruled out re-signing in Detroit, per MLive.com's David Mayo, while Van Gundy continues to equivocate on what the future holds.
"We'll have to look at what comes up, where we are after the draft, possible trades, all of that," he said, per Mayo, "and just go from there and see what's best for both sides."
Parting ways remains best for both sides. The Pistons and Monroe needn't schlep through the June 25 draft, sign-and-trade opportunities or free agency itself to understand that much.
Iffy Fit Up Front
When Monroe reaches unrestricted free agency—an offseason right he earned by accepting his qualifying offer last summer—he'll be seeking a max contract, according to Sporting News' Sean Deveney. That's financial flexibility the Pistons cannot afford to invest in a traditional big man.
Tactical fit is at the heart of all this more so than anything. Van Gundy prefers to deploy one-in, four-out lineups that surround a lone post presence with dead-on shooters.
Any power forwards under his control need three-point range for the offense to reach its full potential. Think Ryan Anderson when he was with the Orlando Magic. Monroe just isn't him.
More than 89 percent of his total shot attempts came within eight feet of the basket in 2014-15. When he did journey to the outside, he did so to blah consequence; he converted under 35 percent of his buckets between eight and 24 feet.
That type of shot selection is problematic in today's pace-and-space NBA overall. Modern-day bigs need to stretch defenses or rank as premier rim protectors. Monroe—who allowed opponents to shoot 60.1 percent inside six feet of the hoop—is neither.
Still, it's not impossible to assemble an offense around his skill set.
Back-to-the-basket brutes can help collapse defenses, and Monroe is a savvy enough passer to make opponents pay for sending help. Even this past season, with the Pistons spending much of the campaign in the spacing underworld, he finished in the top 12 in assist percentage among all towers.
But Monroe's passing and post-up chops are only valuable insofar as he's the only big on the floor, and he won't be most of the time.
Andre Drummond, while still an offensive project, is a double-double machine and eligible for an extension. Not yet 22 years old and with the potential to develop into Dwight Howard's equal, he isn't someone the Pistons will cast aside; he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Van Gundy can continue staggering the minutes of both bigs, but funneling tens of millions of dollars into Monroe only to limit his playing time makes little sense. And unless Monroe plans on reinventing his offensive modus operandi to include outside field-goal attempts in volume, there is too much overlap in his and Drummond's shot selection:
If you take away one thing from the above graph, let it be this: Drummond and Monroe cannot coexist within an efficient offensive model this side of 1999.
The Reggie Jackson Thing
Retaining Monroe is about more than accounting for his fit alongside Drummond; Reggie Jackson matters, too.
Much like power forwards, point guards must play off the ball and stroke threes in Van Gundy's offense. And much like Monroe isn't a stretch 4, Jackson isn't known for his distance shooting.
The 25-year-old has never converted even 34 percent of his treys for an entire campaign. The 29.9 percent clip he posted with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Pistons this past season is actually the second-best mark of his career.
To wit: Jackson did improve while with the Pistons.
He buried 36.4 percent of his long balls between March and season's end and flashed an ability to function off the rock. He attempted 31 catch-and-shoot threes while in Detroit, of which he drilled 14 (45.2 percent).
But Jackson is still at his best when he's attacking and reaching the rim. Nearly 43 percent of his shot attempts came inside eight feet, and almost 58 percent came within 16 feet.
Tack his shot distribution on to Drummond's and Monroe's and things get...clunky:
Trotting out all three of Drummond, Jackson and Monroe makes things difficult on everyone. For Monroe specifically, it gives him even less room to operate.
Opposing defenses are going to pack the area in and around the paint even when Drummond and Jackson are floating elsewhere, knowing full well neither is a proven outside threat:
Creating space off the ball will be equally difficult. It becomes somewhat easier when Drummond and Jackson aren't the ones throwing passes, but when they are on the ball, the defense is going to leave ample room and either coax them into a jumper or force Monroe to battle for entry passes amid double- and triple-teams:
Playing those three together doesn't just limit the Pistons' floor spacing, either; it wreaks hell on the one or two shooters they'll have orbiting the interior traffic jams.
Tim Thielke expands on this for the Detroit Free Press:
"The Pistons have underperformed at shooting for the duration of their 'rebuild.' But it really hit a nadir these past two seasons, just as other teams were setting historic highs for their own shooting.
The most obvious explanation is a lack of spacing. There has been much conversation about how that bogs down the offense by forcing guys who like to operate near the basket to contend with a clogged paint. But there's another downside. Most teams have a couple of good perimeter defenders but not a limitless supply. If the Pistons have so many bad shooters on the floor that it only takes a couple of good perimeter defenders to lock up all their guys, there's not much opportunity to create mismatches.
"
Forget about turning Detroit's offense into a pick-and-roll machine with so many players jostling for the same position.
It's taxing enough to run successful screen-and-pops when neither your primary point guard nor your two most prominent big men project as legitimate perimeter threats. Place all three of them together, and defenses will have a field day going underneath any and all picks, daring one of Drummond, Jackson and Monroe to test his outside mettle.
Should any of them take the bait, past experiences suggest it won't end well. Take this gem from Detroit's April 15 win over the New York Knicks:
Two different screens are set for Jackson on a single possession, and the best shot Detroit can generate is a long two. That's barely acceptable for a mid-range aficionado such as LaMarcus Aldridge these days, let alone the perimeter-challenged Monroe.
And it's not like the Knicks were a good defensive team. They ranked 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions and were easily confused guarding pick-and-rolls. Yet even they were able to crack this code.
Better defensive squads will exploit the Pistons' lack of shooting among their core even more. Heck, they already did.
Detroit ranked a middling 15th in offensive efficiency between Jackson's first game and season's end. Not surprisingly, they were even worse when Drummond, Jackson and Monroe shared the floor, pumping in just 99.6 points per 100 possessions while posting a net rating of minus-12.3.
With Jackson set to enter restricted free agency, the Pistons could let him walk. But Van Gundy has repeatedly made it clear he's part of the team's long-term plans, per MLive.com's Brendan Savage. And if the Pistons are intent on bringing him back, there will be no room for Monroe.
Literally.
Looking Elsewhere
If the Pistons and Monroe didn't have any other options, staying together would become a necessity. But they each have other avenues worth exploring.
Monroe has already been linked to the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers and Knicks, according to Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler. All three of those teams can allow him free reign in the paint.
The Pistons, meanwhile, could have as much as $26.5 million in cap room, per Kyler. Re-signing Jackson will eat into that total, but moving on from Monroe would let them pitch more spacing-friendly bigs such as Draymond Green (restricted free agent), Paul Millsap and maybe even Aldridge.
Owners of the eighth overall pick in this year's draft, the Pistons could also luck into Latvia's Kristaps Porzingis, a sweet-shooting 7-footer who complements Drummond in ways Monroe cannot.
There are plenty of substitutes, then, for each of Monroe and the Pistons—offseason alternatives that, at this point, make far more sense than staying together ever could.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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