Biggest Offseason Needs for Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets’ season came to an end after a gentleman’s sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors. Now, as the offseason begins, it’s time to identify and address the needs to take the next step.

Before that, though, we need to assess where they are at. They may not be the champs, but they were a long way from a disappointment this year. In fact, most expected them to take a step back after losing Chandler Parson in their gambit to acquire Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh.

Rather, led by the MVP-caliber play of James Harden, the Rockets launched themselves into the Western Conference Finals. It’s important to bear this distinction in mind because it means the team is close to the banner; it's in need of tweaks more than overhauls.

Assessing the Cap and Roster

The starting place for any offseason discussion needs to be the current cap and roster situation. How much money and flexibility general manager Daryl Morey has to work with sets the boundaries for what can be done.

Here are the 10 players Houston has under contract, per Spotrac.com:

PLAYER	POS.	SIGNED USING	BASE SALARY	SIGNING BONUS	CAP FIGURE
Dwight Howard	C	Cap Space	$22,359,364	-	$22,359,364
James Harden	SG	Bird	$15,756,438	-	$15,756,438
Trevor Ariza	SF	Cap Space	$8,193,030	-	$8,193,030
Kostas Papanikolaou*	SF	MLE	$4,694,365	$103,299	$4,797,664
Terrence Jones	PF	Rookie	$2,489,529	-	$2,489,529
Donatas Motiejunas	PF	Rookie	$2,288,205	-	$2,288,205
Pablo Prigioni	PG	Mini MLE	$1,734,572	-	$1,734,572
Clint Capela	PF	Rookie	$1,242,720	-	$1,242,720
Joey Dorsey	PF	Minimum	$1,015,421	-	$1,015,421
Nick Johnson	SG	MLE	$845,059	-	$845,059
Total			$60,618,703		$60,722,002

*Has a team option, but the Rockets will almost certainly pick it up. 

And here are the cap holds, adding in the salary for the No. 18 pick, acquired from the New Orleans Pelicans last offseason in exchange for Omer Asik:

PLAYER (4)	POS.	CAP HOLD
Jason Terry	SG	$8,775,470
Patrick Beverley	PG	$2,725,003
Josh Smith	SF	$2,492,400
K.J. McDaniels	SF	$1,045,059
No. 18 Pick		$1,325,600

If they waive the rights to Jason Terry, the figure they’d be working with is $68,310,064. According to cap expert Larry Coon, the cap next year will be $66.5 million.

That means, even if Houston renounced all its rights, declined the option on Kostas Papanikolaou and traded away its picks, the most it would have available is just over $10 million. Next season, the mid-level exception is $5.65 million. That is certainly not enough to validate making drastic decisions.

Ergo, the Rockets are unlikely to make any major moves in free agency.

The Biggest Needs

The Rockets have one overwhelming need: a second shot creator. Their ultimate undoing this year was that, when the Warriors made them win with everyone else by consistently trapping Harden with two or three of their best defenders, the turnovers mounted and the rest of the team couldn’t generate enough offense.

That doesn’t mean the Rox need another superstar—just another guy who can create offense for himself and/or others. The following chart shows the points generated by Harden and his teammates, either through scoring unassisted field goals, free throws or passing. Scroll over each measure to get a specific number or over the name to get the total points. Stats were obtained from NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.[1]

(Note: The specifics are complicated. I obtained the points by assist from the NBA.com, as linked. The unassisted field goal points, however, required more than one click. For the players who weren’t traded I used the “Shooting” profile at Basketball-Reference, subtracting the assisted field goals from total field goals to get the unassisted field goals. Here’s Harden’s as an example. For the midseason acquisitions, I had to separate out the Houston field goals, so I used the Event Finder. Here is Smith’s as an example.)

Harden created 41.84 points per game. Dwight Howard had the second most with 13.53. For the success of the team and the long-term health of Harden, the Rockets need to get someone else who can put the ball on the floor to create shots for himself and others.

Patrick Beverley is a solid defender, but that’s about it.

However, since the Rockets don’t have the money to land a free agent, their best alternative is to deal from a position of strength (power forward), where they have Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones, and perhaps Josh Smith if they use their mid-level exception on him (as I argue they should here).

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

That might require trying to pry away a player who isn’t even on the trading block right now. But a guy like George Hill of the Indiana Pacers, who can play well off the ball without commanding it (thus not replacing Harden), but who can when he needs to (thus supplementing Harden) would be ideal. 

Alternatively, they could let Smith walk and try to sign a starting point guard. Yet they can land a better player through a trade than through free agency because of their tight budget this offseason.

In fact, the weakness is so great, it wouldn’t hurt to both trade for an upgrade at starting point guard and use their pick on one. And as I discuss here, Tyus Jones, Jerian Grant or Cameron Payne would all be excellent fits and could be going in the area of the No. 18 pick.

Other Needs Can Be Met with Youth

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

The Rockets are losing Corey Brewer, unless they re-sign him, which would be surprising. There haven’t been any public comments on it, as of yet, but I expect they let him go. The trade for K.J. McDaniels, who is a restricted free agent himself, indicated that much. I’d be shocked if they didn’t match any offers on him, though.

Brewer’s loss won’t create as big of a need at the backup wings as it seems because they have younger guys, including McDaniels, who can step into that role. Add in Papanikolaou at small forward (if he's not part of a trade) and Nick Johnson at shooting guard. They may want to look at a player whom they can ink for the minimum, but most of the minutes will be filled by youth.

The same can be said for the backup center position. Clint Capela showed in the playoffs that he’s ready for the big leagues. He averaged 16.2 points on 67.7 percent shooting, 11.9 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per 36 minutes. Give him another offseason and the summer leagues, and let him play.

In fact, when you look at the youth on the team and how little it needs to fix, it’s remarkable. While some might view them as a group that overachieved, that’s inaccurate. It's a team on the rise, and one who can have honest championship aspirations with the right tweaks.