Josh Smith Providing Houston Rockets with Front-Line Future and Questions
When the Detroit Pistons cut Josh Smith, few probably thought he would go on to be the difference in the Houston Rockets making it to the Western Conference Finals, much less surviving a sweep. But that’s what he’s done, and it raises questions for his future with Clutch City because Smith is downright clutch.
Yet, it’s true. According to Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk:
"In the four Rockets’ elimination games this season, Smith has 63 points on 22-of-34 shooting (64.7 percent). In those games, he’s hit 10-of-18 from three. Most impressive, in those games he’s 10-of-13 on contested looks — even when the defense comes out on him he’s knocking it down.
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And he’s been scorching for most of the Western Conference Finals, shooting 44.4 percent from deep. Smith has shown that he can step up and play his best when his team demands the most from him.
Yet, there’s the other side to Smith. If there’s a stat that defines him, it’s this: His free-throw percentage for the series is just 38.9 percent. Per the play index at Basketball-Reference.com, that makes him the only player since at least 1985 to post a higher three-point percentage than free-throw percentage in a conference finals.
It’s enough to make you wonder if he should step back a few steps when he’s at the charity stripe.
Smith’s weakness at the free-throw line presents a major weakness for Houston. With Dwight Howard already being a chronically struggling free-throw shooter (57.3 percent for his career), it gets that much easier for opponents to play the hack-a-who game when Smith is in the lineup.
And it’s enough to cause speculation as to what happens to him this summer.
Tough Decisions
Smith is just one of several decisions facing Houston. Here is the free-agency status of each of its players hitting the market, per Basketball Insiders:
- Bird: Jason Terry, Patrick Beverley (restricted)
- Early Bird: Corey Brewer
- Non-Bird: Josh Smith, K.J. McDaniels (restricted)
Only one of those decisions is easy. If Terry doesn’t retire—and, per Marc Stein of ESPN.com, he’s not planning to—he won’t get more than the minimum anywhere. After that, it’s anyone’s guess what happens, but the decision regarding Smith may be the linchpin.
The core of the Rockets’ dilemma is that they have three starting-caliber power forwards: Smith, Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas, who has missed the postseason with a back injury.
Carrying that much depth for a grand total of just under $5.2 million as they did this year is a luxury—one they won’t have next year. And Smith's pending free agency will probably force the Rockets to part with one of the three.
The easiest decision in terms of both money and convenience would be to just let Smith go. That could inevitably be the case anyway if someone offers Smith more than the mid-level exception, as that’s the most the Rockets can offer since they have no Bird rights.
His comments to Jenny Dial Creech of the Houston Chronicle were positive but noncommittal for the future:
"All season long, everything we fought through, the resilience of this team, adversity all season long - that should be a testament in itself. We had our backs against the wall, and we recovered. It's important to go out there and not put all the pressure on yourself. You just have to play the game.
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For the sake of discussion, what if he is willing to stay?
Shoring Up Needs Elsewhere
The best reason to keep Smith is that by doing so, that gives the Rockets room to use one of the other power forwards an asset to bolster their weakness at the point. Jones and Motiejunas are cheaper and under contract; Houston could then use one as trade bait.
The most likely scenario would be offering up Terrence Jones. He has a slightly higher salary, and would generate more interest around the league. Also, Motiejunas performed exceptionally in his role as thee starter with Jones out for a good portion of the year.
Combining Jones with Kostas Papanikolaou, Pablo Prigioni and Joey Dorsey would bring back about $12.65 million in salaries (125 percent of their combined salaries plus $100,000).
The Rockets wouldn’t necessarily need to give up all that, but that’s about the most they can offer to anyone.
I have no reason to believe that George Hill, currently with the Indiana Pacers, is available, but he’d be the perfect type of point guard for the Rockets. Last year he averaged 16.1 points and 5.1 assists. He can shoot the three (35.8 percent), create off the bounce (63.1 percent of his field goals were unassisted) and distribute. He can play the 1 or the 2. And, he can guard the 1, 2 or 3, which is pretty important in the Rockets' switch-heavy defense.
He’s under contract for $8 million, which means that a combination of Papanikolaou and Jones would be enough to make the salaries work, and Jones alone is sufficient for an even trade. However, to pique the Pacers' interest, the Rockets might have to overbid.
If the transaction grows, the Rockets might also consider throwing in the New Orleans Pelicans’ pick they obtained from the Omer Asik trade last summer.
It may seem steep, but it’s essentially dealing two bench players at the deepest position for a starter at the weakest.
There are other alternatives. They could entertain a sign-and-trade for the Phoenix Suns' Brandon Knight, but the money could be hard to work out there. Even with injuries slowing down his career year, he should start at no less than $15 million, and the Rockets would have a hard time managing that much.
Lou Williams of the Toronto Raptors might work in a sign-and-trade situation as well. Or, they could see if Detroit is willing to let Brandon Jennings go, though there’d be concern about the previous failure of the Jennings-Smith pairing.
All of these are conjecture. As far as I can tell, the Rockets haven’t yet indicated what their offseason plans are. Neither have any of the players. Right now, their focus is on the Golden State Warriors and advancing to the NBA Finals.
But the further they go and the better Smith plays in elimination games, the harder he is making the decision.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
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