How Does Rookie RB Josh Robinson Impact the 2015 Indianapolis Colts Offense?

The stain on the Indianapolis Colts running game left by former third overall pick Trent Richardson has not quite left the franchise.

The Colts had plenty of success on offense last season, but the run game continued to be the team's weak spot as Indianapolis struggled to find balance. A team may not need an elite, bruising run game to succeed, but imbalance can sabotage even the best offenses against talented defenses.

While the Colts offensive line has often been blamed for the team's rushing issues, we've looked at the situation multiple times before and the conclusion has been clear: The Colts issues were more about Trent Richardson than they were an offensive line that was about average in every available metric.

Every back but Richardson was able to have pretty clear success over the last two years.

Player	Rushing DVOA	Success Rate	Yards/Carry	Elusive Rating
Donald Brown 2013	19.2%	47.5%	5.3	73.8
Ahmad Bradshaw 2014	-1.7%	54.6%	4.7	82.5
Dan Herron 2014	-2.8%	44.9%	4.2	31.1
Trent Richardson 2013	-22.2%	43%	2.9	48.4
Trent Richardson 2014	-17.7%	43%	3.2	50.1

Upgrading at running back seems to be something that could bring clear results, which is where rookie running back Josh Robinson comes into play. Though he's a sixth-round pick, the Mississippi State product excelled at breaking and avoiding tackles in college, something that would be a nice change from Dan Herron and Frank Gore, both of whom had similarly low elusive ratings last year (Gore finished at 30.0), per Pro Football Focus.

But how exactly does Robinson, and the upgrade that the Colts hope he is, translate to production in 2015?

Finding Comparisons

To start, let's take a look at backs similar to Robinson and compare their rookie contributions.

The first comparison is with other late-round backs over the last 10 years. No matter what we think of Robinson, the fact that he was a sixth-round pick remains. It's unlikely to find very good production at any position that late in the draft, and it's important to temper one's expectations for draft picks.

Player	Rd Drafted	Att.	Yards	YPC	Touchdowns
Alfred Morris	6	335	1613	4.81	13
Zac Stacy	5	250	973	3.89	7
Vick Ballard	5	211	814	3.86	2
Wali Lundy	6	124	476	3.84	4
Kolby Smith	5	112	407	3.63	2
Tim Hightower	5	143	399	2.79	10
Average	-	32.9	132.3	4.07	0.98

From 2005-2014, 57 running backs were drafted in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. The six individual backs listed above are the only six to receive more than 100 carries in their rookie season. Those six are also the only backs to gain at least 350 total yards. In all, just 13 backs gained at least 200 yards in their rookie year, and just 18 gained 100 yards or more.

Like I mentioned before, production in the later rounds is hard to find.

The rookie running backs that have been productive, in a raw total kind of way, have all been pretty inefficient, with Washington's Alfred Morris being the only one with a yard-per-carry average over 4.0.

One possible reason is that it's difficult to ask a rookie, especially one that NFL teams have dubbed a "late-round talent," to take on a high volume of snaps and be effective. One reason Morris was able to have such a stellar rookie season was because of the unique situation he was in, having a high-end running threat at quarterback with Robert Griffin III and a stellar offensive line paired with an innovative rushing game plan.

Overall, however, most late-round backs are stowed away during their rookie year, averaging just a couple of carries per game with perhaps a game or two thrown in with more snaps received.

Now, the other thing to consider is Josh Robinson's size and speed and the other backs that match his profile. At 5'8", 217 pounds, Robinson has a short, bowling-ball type of build, one that's fairly unique. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, there were only 10 backs drafted from 2005-2014 that were 5'9" or shorter while also weighing between 210 and 220 pounds.

Perhaps not-so-ironically, the two top backs (at least in their rookie year) on that list are the same ones that topped our last list: Alfred Morris and Zac Stacy.

Player	Height	Weight	Pick No.	Att.	Yards	YPC	40-yd Dash	3-Cone
Alfred Morris	5-9	219	173	335	1613	4.81	4.67	7.01
Zac Stacy	5-9	216	160	250	973	3.89	4.55	6.7
Leon Washington	5-8	210	117	151	650	4.30	4.43	6.94
Frank Gore	5-9	215	65	127	608	4.79	4.58	6.91
DeAngelo Williams	5-8	210	27	121	501	4.14	4.45	6.57
Average	5-8.7	212.6	104	128.9	564.9	4.38	4.52	6.905
Josh Robinson	5-8	217	205	?	?	?	4.70	7.24

You can see that despite the smaller size, most of these drafted rookies actually had fairly productive rookie seasons. Nine of the 10 backs  that fit the profile gained at least 150 yards in their rookie year, and half of them (the five listed above) gained at least 500 yards.

But while Robinson has similar size to a lot of these backs, he's decidedly slower than most. It is interesting, however, to note that the one player with the most similar speed and quickness is Morris.

The Frank Gore similarities are interesting as well, and that's not a terribly uncommon comparison for him, but it is important to note that Gore was a more athletic player coming out of college. With Robinson's lack of speed and quickness, he'll need to show strong vision in the NFL in order to succeed (unlike a certain other recent Colts back).

Fit in Indianapolis

Fortunately for Robinson, he's not exactly coming into a loaded backfield, and he stands to have a very good chance of making the team and being in the running back rotation, in the very least.

The Colts do have a starter in Frank Gore and an incumbent "back-by-committee" player in Dan Herron, but the depth is questionable at best.

Vick Ballard has missed the vast majority of the last two seasons with season-ending ACL and Achilles injuries, and he's unlikely to be able to contribute much after such physical trauma. Second-year player Zurlon Tipton contributed periodically last year, but he's really an athletic fullback at best. Undrafted free agent Tyler Varga has a chance to make the roster, but likely in a fullback-type role.

It seems likely that Robinson should be able to crack the top three with relative ease in 2015. The question is: What role will he take in that three?

While Gore will be the starter, his ever-growing age makes it likely that the Colts will attempt to lighten his load as much as possible with a back-by-committee approach. Herron has already proved that he can be reasonably effective in such a role, but the hope is that Robinson can provide a bit of an upgrade there and become the second back.

Though Herron has the reputation as being the more athletic back, his speed is actually similar to Robinson's, running just a 4.66-second 40-yard dash at the combine in 2012, per NFLDraftScout.com. He did post a much better three-cone time of 6.97, however, indicating a better ability to change direction.

Fortunately, Robinson's game is not built on quick change-of-direction ability or outrunning defenders.

In 2014, Robinson finished with Pro Football Focus' second-highest Elusive Rating among backs with at least 100 carries. Robinson forced a missed tackle once every 3.96 carries and finished with 58 total missed/broken tackles in 2014.

But rather than forcing those missed tackles with jump-cuts and speed, Robinson just refused to go down. He has excellent balance and powerful legs that let him churn through contact for extra yards, and it was evident on nearly every carry.

If Robinson can continue that kind of yards-after-contact production as a professional, he should fit in perfectly in Indianapolis. As mentioned above, both Herron and Gore struggled with that in 2014.

Another area where Robinson fits in well is his ability to catch the ball. While he might not be the most passing-friendly back in this class, he did catch 28 passes for 370 yards last season, a more-than-respectable 13.2 yards per catch. According to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, Robinson, was a "steady threat out of the backfield as a pass-catcher" and showed "soft hands to secure the throw and is ready to run after the catch."

Because of his ability to contribute in the passing game and his decent blocking skills, Robinson should be able to contribute right away in the Colts offense. He may need some time to learn the playbook and adjust to the speed of the NFL, which will give Herron an early advantage, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him surpass Herron partway through the year.

With Gore still being the starter and the Colts still being a pass-heavy offense, I would guess that Robinson won't receive a huge volume of carries in 2015. Around 100 carries and over 400 yards rushing would be a very successful season for him, given his draft status, but in his situation, I don't think that's an overly optimistic projection.

Whether Robinson turns out to be a late-round gem or not will depend on his long-term contributions to Indianapolis, but for now, there's good reason to believe that Robinson could be a key contributor for the Colts as a rookie.