How the Indianapolis Colts Can Improve Rushing Attack in 2015

If there is one thing the Indianapolis Colts have to improve offensively in 2015, it's the ground game. 

Though it was praised early in the year, especially after the 169-yard performance in Week 2 against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Colts were actually worse at running the football than they were in 2013. In fact, it was less efficient than it has ever been in the Andrew Luck era, a surprisingly depressing feat. 

Take a moment to reflect: 

Year	Rushing DVOA	Rushing EPA	Adj. Line Yards	Yards/Carry (RBs)	Total Rushing Yds
2012	-4.3%	20.5	3.93	3.91	1671
2013	3.1%	17.6	3.89	3.96	1743
2014	-15.9%	-20.9	3.93	3.91	1612

Sobering. 

The question the Colts must ask themselves now, and the question we'll attack in this column, is why the team's rushing attack declined so much in 2014. There are three main factors that we'll look at: the offensive line, the ball-carriers and the play-calling.

A Hole to Fill, or Adequate?

The first factor to assess in a ground game is always the offensive line, despite the attention they receive relative to the skill positions. 

Great offensive lines can make below-average backs productive, while poor lines can sabotage a good back's career.

How can we separate the 2014 offensive line from its runners? There are a few tactics. 

One way is to compare the individuals comprising the line to past units. For example, this year's line has much more stability on the left side with Anthony Castonzo continuing to improve and Jack Mewhort becoming a reliable, if unspectacular, partner. The team also used some "addition by subtraction" by letting Samson Satele and Mike McGlynn go elsewhere, replacing them with a committee of young players.

On the downside, Gosder Cherilus' injury issues meant a downgrade at right tackle, both when he was on the field and when his absence forced others into his role. 

The 2014 version also had a fairly healthy Dwayne Allen at tight end, which is a boost to the run blocking. While Pro Football Focus isn't the end-all, be-all authority on the matter, they graded the Colts with a cumulative minus-7.7 grade in run blocking in 2014, compared to minus-17.7 in 2013.

Any statistics used to separate offensive line play had the Colts improving or staying roughly the same as 2013 as well. Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards actually measured the Colts as getting slightly more push from the offensive line in 2014, while Cold Hard Football Facts' Offensive Hog Index ranked the Colts 13th in the league in 2014, a perfectly respectable mark.

One area that definitively did decline in 2014 was the Colts' success in power-run situations. The team was 31st in the league in 2014, converting just 52 percent of their opportunities, according to Football Outsiders. This was down from 65 percent in 2013, good for 15th in the league. 

While having a powerful, or crafty, running back can factor into those short-yardage situations, the offensive line is the biggest factor, whether they allow penetration or get any push at all often determines success versus failure. 

Part of their struggles in 2014 could be due to the youth on the offensive line as well as the ever-changing lineups. On a play that relies so heavily on a quick get-off, consistently having different youngsters in the game could have a major impact. 

For example, undrafted free agent Jonotthan Harrison mistimed the snap count in a 3rd-and-1 situation against Baltimore in early October, and Andrew Luck's sneak attempt was no good. In Week 1, the Denver Broncos defensive linemen read the sneak attempt on 3rd-and-1 at the goal line and got a fantastic jump on the ball. 

NFL Game Rewind

With there being such a small sample size of power run plays and the Colts' returning interior linemen in 2015, I would expect that number to swing back toward average. 

No, while the Colts offensive line would never be judged as a powerhouse, an unstoppable force of any kind, it's difficult to ignore the numbers and logic here. I would judge the Colts offensive line as average, one that will struggle against good run-stopping teams but is more than adequate. 

Boom or Bust? 

So, if the offensive line was somewhere around average, what was the problem? 

Well, a large part of the issue was the running backs. 

Obviously, Trent Richardson's problems have been well-documented. He's had vision issues for the last two years and lacks the quickness to make up for it. He was a plague on the Colts rushing attack, and the Colts were much more effective without him.

But going back to the 2013-2014 comparisons, take another look at what Donald Brown was able to do for the Colts in 2013:

Player	Rushing DVOA	Success Rate	Yards/Carry	Elusive Rating
Donald Brown 2013	19.2%	47.5%	5.3	73.8
Ahmad Bradshaw 2014	-1.7%	54.6%	4.7	82.5
Dan Herron 2014	-2.8%	44.9%	4.2	31.1

Brown was incredibly efficient in 2013, not relying on just the big plays, as was his reputation. No matter what statistical source you turn to, Brown's success rate was in the top 10 among running backs for the season. 

The Colts had a chance to find something somewhat similar with Ahmad Bradshaw early in the season, but his leg injury cut that short. Even if Bradshaw had stayed healthy, his lack of explosion and top-end speed meant he wasn't the big-play threat Brown was, hence the lower DVOA and yards per carry. 

Herron was basically a blank slate. He'd get you what the offensive line provided, and not much more. He did make a few key plays down the stretch, but a more talented back shouldn't be difficult to find in the draft or free agency. 

Don't get me wrong, Herron deserves his praise in Indianapolis for coming in at the end of the season and running well. He was phenomenal in the Colts' Week 15 win over Houston, and then gritted through a very tough performance while injured against an extremely stout Denver run defense. 

Take this stretch, for instance. After allowing Denver to march downfield for a touchdown in the first quarter of the divisional-round win over Denver, the Colts were down 7-0. After a defensive stop, Indianpolis got the ball and began driving. With a first down on the Denver 15, they needed to make sure they got a touchdown. 

Who do they turn to but Herron? 

On first down, he got outside on a pitch play for six yards. On second down, he avoided a man in the backfield and plowed ahead for three yards. On 3rd-and-1, he bounced a draw outside, got the first down and then dove between blockers for a touchdown. 

Herron ran for just 63 yards on 23 carries, but a large part of that came when the Colts were trying to kill clock in the second half against a good run defense. Herron ran for 47 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries while the Colts built their two-score lead. 

If the Colts are able to bring Herron back on a cheap tender or something similar, he can have success. But they still need to add another back to the rotation, as Herron isn't a workhorse back. A big-play threat who could contribute in the passing game and keep Herron from having to pass protect often would be ideal. 

Call Me Maybe?

The final piece of the puzzle is play-calling, which has gone through an exhausting roller-coaster ride over the last 20 months. 

When Pep Hamilton started in Indianapolis, he and Chuck Pagano envisioned a power-running team that could pass out of heavy sets, a kind of pick-your-poison, grind-it-out offense. Think San Francisco, but with a quarterback who excels inside the pocket and has precise touch. 

The Colts labored about in 2013, trying to employ that kind of offense for weeks before finally benching Trent Richardson for Donald Brown in Week 10. They would try to bring it back early in 2014, but a gut-wrenching loss to Philadelphia in Week 2 set Pep Hamilton straight, and he began to shift. Hamilton began to emphasize Luck and the Colts' explosive weapons and tight ends, creating the most dangerous offense in the league. 

Sure, the Colts would turn the ball over at times, but they could also hit you with a big play at any time. 

But Hamilton went from one extreme to another. From trying to establish a run game too early and often to the frequent willingness to completely abandon it, the Colts' struggles to find a balance hurt them at times in the back half of 2014. 

Take the Colts' loss to the New England Patriots, for example. Dan Herron ran the ball just six times in the first half, but gained 30 yards. He was running well and the Colts offensive line was having success, but the Colts tried to go to the pass game too often, which the Patriots defense had well in-hand. 

Once the second half came around, it was too late, as the Colts were trailing by three scores and needed to get a big play. The defense was the reason the Colts lost that game, not the lack of rushing attempts. 

Still, it was an example of how the Colts were unable to find an effective run-pass balance throughout the year, something the best teams do extremely well. It's no coincidence that teams like Green Bay, Denver, Pittsburgh and Dallas led the league in offensive efficiency. Those teams were able to find offensive balance with the running game, even though they had great quarterbacks who were the focal point (save for maybe Dallas). 

The Colts are in a delicate place. They can't keep the ball out of Andrew Luck's hands, but they also can't make him do everything. They don't have the passing weapons for Luck to be able to efficiently drop back 50 times per game. 

It's not a call for Hamilton's head. Finding that balance is very difficult, and there will be good days and bad days. It's merely something the team must make a concerted effort to fix.

The team doesn't need a massive overhaul on the offensive line, although depth is needed and a long-term plan at tackle will need to be addressed eventually. What it does need is a new weapon at the running back position and a continued improvement in the team's offensive philosophy and style. 

Hamilton and the Colts made great strides in 2014, even if they were marred by turnovers and an AFC Championship Game to forget. With a few key moves in 2015, the team should be able to get back a complementary rushing attack to bring the Colts offense to an elite level.