Would Marc Gasol or LaMarcus Aldridge Be Best Option for Spurs in Free Agency?
The San Antonio Spurs could be more active in free agency than ever before, since the 2015 offseason currently holds a handful of questions that won't be answered for a couple months.
Will Tim Duncan and (or) Manu Ginobili retire? Will Kawhi Leonard officially ink a max contract? Can the Spurs re-sign Danny Green to a new deal?
However, Duncan's decision on his future will directly impact whether or not San Antonio formulates a run at Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol or Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge.
Duncan could retire, or—less likely but intriguingly, frighteningly possible—the future Hall of Famer who has collected nearly a quarter-billion dollars during his NBA career (h/t Basketball-Reference.com) could take a tremendously team-friendly contract to free cap space for a new teammate.
Either way, per Sean Deveney of Sporting News, Gasol would become the Spurs' top target should he test the free-agent market. And according to ESPN's Marc Stein, "San Antonio sits near or at the top of Aldridge's list."
But of the two superstars, which one is the best option to potentially replace—or temporarily complement—Duncan?
The Case for Marc Gasol
Duncan, the franchise cornerstone, is not replaceable. But Gasol certainly comes close to replicating Duncan, the player.
A 7'1" center with elite two-way skills, Gasol racked up a career-best 17.4 points on 49.4 percent shooting in 2014-15. He added 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.6 blocks per outing, each on par with his career averages and Duncan's recent output.
The seventh-year pro posted 111 and 100 offensive and defensive ratings, respectively, accounting for 10.2 win shares—the 13th-highest total in the league, one slot ahead of Duncan.
Gasol, who turned 30 in January, figures to have at least four years of All-Star-caliber basketball remaining. Adding him would probably make San Antonio's post-Duncan transition days a relatively quiet affair, with initial chemistry issues being the lone glaring concern right away.
Regardless, Gasol simply fits perfectly within the Spurs' style of play, especially in a Duncan-like role. Gasol can post up, roam 18 feet from the basket and lock down the rim defensively.
And he can do this, too:
His 3.8 assists per game trailed only Blake Griffin and Joakim Noah for the NBA-high mark by a power forward or center. Duncan's ability to facilitate is an under-appreciated part of his arsenal, and San Antonio wouldn't skip a beat if Gasol stepped in.
Most importantly for the Spurs, he'd return the spacing element to a lineup that includes Tiago Splitter. Though both players are centers, Gasol can occupy a pseudo power forward position, just like Duncan has for the majority of his career.
Duncan hoisted just 29.1 percent of his total field-goal attempts from 10 feet or farther, connecting on 90 of 253 looks for a 35.6 percent clip. Conversely, Gasol launched from that range 44.9 percent of the time, burying 39.9 percent.
Though the percentages weren't much different, the mere threat of Gasol's jump-shooting would open the lane a little further for Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. Additionally, if Duncan were to remain, he could spend more energy in the post, while Gasol heads to the mid-range.
And that's a pretty dangerous rotation, to say the least.
The Case for LaMarcus Aldridge
Whereas Gasol provides the threat of stepping outside, the four-time All-Star has built his offensive prowess around his jump shooting capabilities.
Although he's a touch one-dimensional at times—hey, look, Aldridge pulled a turnaround jumper over his right shoulder again—the 29-year-old is deadly from 16 feet and beyond. He drained 41.5 percent this season, and Aldridge's lone year under 40.0 was his rookie season.
While the 6'11" forward spends his fair share of time away from the rim, Aldridge has shown an understanding of how to win down low. Of players with at least 250 post-up attempts, Aldridge tallied the fourth-best points per possession clip, per NBA.com.
Sure, Aldridge's attack is focused on the left side, but Duncan never developed a serious affinity for finishing with his left hand and still turned out OK.
The defensive side represents a bit of an issue. Aldridge ranked 45th among power forwards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, according to ESPN. Not in the NBA; at his position.
But the eye-test matters, too. He helped Portland contain Zach Randolph, Gasol's frontcourt mate, to a 38.6 percent mark during their recent five-game playoff series.
Overall during the regular season, Aldridge limited opponents to 45.1 percent shooting at the rim, a top-15 mark in the league, per NBA.com. Plus, when playing alongside Duncan or a healthy Splitter, Aldridge would likely defend the less versatile big.
Considering the offensive dominance Aldridge would bring to San Antonio, that's a solid trade-off.
Verdict
Aldridge is the more realistic option, since he appears to be the most willing to leave his current situation. However, Gasol is the better fit for San Antonio.
The Memphis center is easily more dangerous in pick-and-roll, a staple of the Spurs' attack. Plus, though Aldridge is a capable defender, Gasol is just two years removed from a Defensive Player of the Year award.
Those points aren't meant to diminish Aldridge's abilities. If Gasol isn't available, the Spurs will almost certainly pursue Aldridge vigorously, and rightfully so.
Unfortunately for San Antonio, signing either player may come at the expense of 3-and-D extraordinaire Danny Green, who is an unrestricted free agent and due a sizable raise.
Green wouldn't be easy to replace, that's for sure. His combination of three-point shooting and well-above-average defense is lethal in today's NBA. But, it might be even tougher to replace Duncan.
If the veteran is gone and Gasol or Aldridge is there for the taking, the Spurs must seriously consider shelling out another max contract this summer. Otherwise, San Antonio will enter the 2015-16 campaign in an unfamiliar circumstance, with no elite player in the frontcourt.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and are accurate as of May 5.
Follow Bleacher Report NBA writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.
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