OKC Thunder Are on a Slippery Slope Heading Toward 2015 NBA Playoffs
The Oklahoma City Thunder's grip on the West's eighth seed isn't very firm; it's up just two-and-a-half games on the New Orleans Pelicans entering the final month of the regular season.
The Thunder have shown incredible perseverance this season in overcoming numerous critical injuries to stay in the postseason race. Reigning MVP Kevin Durant played just 27 games all year before the team finally read his 2014-15 campaign its last rites on March 27. OKC's list of the walking wounded also includes Serge Ibaka (knee), Andre Roberson (ankle) and Nick Collison (ankle).
Ibaka is hoping to be back in three-to-four weeks following knee surgery, per Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman. Collison is expected to miss at least 10 days after spraining his ankle against the Atlanta Hawks on March 21, while Roberson is in the second week of his two-to-three week recovery from a sprained ankle. The hits keep on coming as Dion Waiters is dealing with soreness in his left foot, which has kept him out of practice.
Despite the constant setbacks, don't expect the Thunder to start waving the white flag any time soon, according to DailyThunder's Royce Young.
"The Thunder have always been an organization that tries to present itself as bigger than a single player, and if you tried to pull back now, you couldn't do it and look in the mirror anymore. You’d basically be telling everyone they aren't good enough.
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The Thunder must continue relying on Russell Westbrook and Enes Kanter to keep the Pelicans at bay. Westbrook is playing at an MVP-caliber level the last two months, while Kanter is contributing 17.3 points and 10.7 boards since his arrival on Feb. 19.
While Oklahoma City attempts to soldier on without key players—including their best player and franchise building block—New Orleans is preparing to bring in the cavalry.
Sharpshooter Ryan Anderson, out since Feb. 21 with a MCL injury, could return sometime during the team's current three-game road trip, per NOLA.com's John Reid. Head coach Monty Williams also said he wouldn't be surprised if point guard Jrue Holiday comes back from a stress reaction in his leg during the next week or so, per Reid.
However, a final charge from Anthony Davis and Co. isn't the only thing putting Oklahoma City's playoff spot in jeopardy.
Porous Defense
While injuries are affecting the Thunder in every aspect of the game, defense is where the club is really feeling the pain. The loss of Ibaka and Roberson have robbed its best shot-blocker and perimeter defender, respectively. Of the team's top eight players in defensive rating, only Westbrook, rookie Mitch McGary and center Steven Adams are healthy enough to suit up, per Basketball-Reference.com.
As a result, the Thunder's defense has been leakier than a broken faucet.
In the 21 games since the All-Star break, OKC has given up an average of nearly 106 points per game. During that stretch, the team has let opponents reach the century mark 15 times, including allowing the San Antonio Spurs to drop a season-high 130 points on March 25. Despite being 13th in defensive efficiency, the Thunder is 20th in points allowed, hemorrhaging 100.6 points per game.
Head coach Scott Brooks realizes defense is an area of concern, per Mayberry.
"There's a lot of things to focus on," Brooks said. "Unfortunately, defensively we haven't been good consistently. We have to be better defensively consistently throughout the game. That's the challenge."
While no one player is solely responsible for the Thunder becoming human turnstiles, Kanter's defensive struggles certainly aren't helping the team's cause.
The squad has a net rating of -0.3 when he's on the court and 5.1 when he's not playing. The Turkish Tower is also allowing opponents to shoot 50.2 percent from the field this season, as opposed to 47.2 percent normally, per NBA.com. Essentially, Kanter is giving back everything he puts up, which isn't a good tradeoff for OKC.
Even Kanter's own teammates seem to score on the big fella.
The return of Ibaka, Roberson and Collison will help shore up the defense if or when OKC squares off with the Golden State Warriors in the first round, but what about in the meantime? The Thunder's next four opponents all rank in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency, and every potential loss opens the door for the Pelicans to sneak into the playoffs.
Tough Remaining Schedule
The Thunder and Pelicans will have similar difficulty with the games left on their respective slates. According to RealGM, Oklahoma City has a remaining opponent win percentage of 53.5 percent, while New Orleans ROWP is 53.7.
| Thunder | vs. Dallas (4/1) | at Memphis (4/3) | vs. Houston (4/5) | vs. San Antonio (4/7) | vs. Sacramento (4/10) | at Indiana (4/12) | vs. Portland (4/13) | at Minnesota (4/15) | n/a |
| Pelicans | at L.A. Lakers (4/1) | at Sacramento (4/3) | at Portland (4/4) | vs. Golden State (4/7) | at Memphis (4/8) | vs. Phoenix (4/10) | at Houston (4/12) | at Minnesota (4/13) | vs. San Antonio (4/15) |
The biggest difference is Scott Brooks' boys have a tougher start in front of them. As seen in the chart above, the first four of the club's remaining eight games come versus teams in the top seven seeds of the Western Conference, including a clash with a Spurs squad that just eviscerated the Thunder a week ago.
This season, OKC is 5-15 against the conference's other playoff teams and haven't beaten a Western contender since routing the Dallas Mavericks 104-89 on Feb. 19. Oddly enough, that was the last time the team had Durant on the floor.
The Pels, meanwhile, get to feast on the lottery-bound Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings (possibly without DeMarcus Cousins) before butting heads with the Portland Trail Blazers. If there was ever a chance for New Orleans to gain ground on Oklahoma City, it will come in the first week of April.
Like the Thunder, the Pelicans have five games on tap against Western Conference postseason crews, and New Orleans holds just a combined 7-13 record against those teams this year.
The road to the playoffs won't be easy for the Thunder, but nothing has been all season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the driver's seat for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but the New Orleans Pelicans are doing whatever it takes to grab the wheel. The next three weeks will test the mettle of a team that continues to laugh in the face of adversity.
The Thunder have come a long way with a shorthanded roster, but they won't be able to use injuries as an excuse if they fall behind the equally-battered Pelicans.
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