How Has Chuck Pagano Left His Stamp on the Indianapolis Colts?

Ever since Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported that Chuck Pagano would not be extended prior to the 2015 season last week, the national media has been ablaze with criticism for the Colts.

Pagano has had a lot of positive vibes over the last three years, especially in the national spotlight. First, it was the inspiring defeat over cancer in 2012, leading to the #ChuckStrong movement in Indianapolis. With the Colts defeating expectations and going 11-5 in that initial year, it seemed the Colts were set to turn the rebuilding franchise into a future powerhouse overnight.

With consecutive 11-5 seasons following, three postseason victories and getting farther in the playoffs in each year, many on the national scale look at the team's progression and assign it to Pagano, making the Colts' one-year, $4 million extension offer an insult.

CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora said as much Monday, calling the Colts' tactics "49ers-esque in stupidity."

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All of this -- so early in the offseason, with so many months before the real season begins (what is now primed to be a lame-duck season for Pagano despite all he's accomplished in a brief stint at the helm) -- is nothing short of bizarre. Why the Colts would offer, from what I've heard, just a small, one-year bump on the already budget-level coaching contract Pagano is on is bizarre.

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There are a myriad of reasons why the lack of an extension makes sense for both sides in this case. As The Herald Bulletin's George Bremer says, Pagano is betting on himself, thinking he can make himself worth much more than the $4 million offered with a big 2015 season. For the Colts, they avoid paying more than they need to before Pagano has truly cemented himself as one of the better coaches in the league.

While some of the NFL's established media, like La Canfora, think Pagano is already there, there are plenty of others that have more mixed feelings on the fourth-year head coach.

We don't even have to go to local media to find those mixed feelings. Patrick Daugherty of Rotoworld ranked Pagano 16th in the 2015 coach rankings, for example.

There are plenty of reasons to like Pagano, most noticeably his infectious personality, rousing post-game speeches and inspiring story. But the question I want to ask today is: Has Pagano really imprinted himself on the Colts? What defining traits has Pagano brought to the team that make him so invaluable to Indianapolis?

Most people start and finish that conversation with #ChuckStrong, a difficult situation to assess. La Canfora spent more than 300 words of his column discussing the "fairy-tale" season in support of Pagano.

AJ Mast/Associated Press

But it's a situation that could probably be spun any way you wanted it to be.

On one hand, Pagano came in and helped Ryan Grigson turn the roster over, getting veteran players to buy into the "Build the Monster" campaign and convincing players like Reggie Wayne and Robert Mathis to stick around for the team's resurgence. His strength and courage in the face of a leukemia diagnosis was immeasurable for that squad, and the community movement and team unity were a significant part of the team's success on the field.

But at the same time, attempting to judge Pagano on that season while detaching emotion can paint a different picture. Despite the veteran buy-in, the Colts were embarrassed in Week 1 against the Bears, nearly allowed the Vikings to come back from a double-digit deficit in Week 2 and suffered an embarrassing home loss to the Jaguars in Week 3.

The team's surprising, resounding success after Pagano's diagnosis was no doubt influenced by Pagano's personal character, but ultimately came under the direction of Bruce Arians, who went on to cement his head coaching merits in Arizona. And, of course, the lightning-fast assimilation into the NFL by Andrew Luck was the biggest factor in the Colts' rebuild.

It's an incredibly sensitive subject. In no way do I want to undermine what Pagano went through that season, but to apply it to the business-oriented NFL is tricky. How can we give Pagano credit for 2012 while being realistic about the in-season duties that were picked up by other individuals?

I don't know, which makes it difficult for me to include that stretch in Pagano's evaluation.

So let's look at other factors.

Pagano was brought in to be a defensive stalwart, to change the Colts from being a completely offensive-oriented team to a more balanced group.

But attempts to build a strong defense have left the Colts fairly average on defense, and the run game has regressed.

Year	Rushing Yds per Gm (Rank)	Rushing DVOA	Points Allowed	Defensive DVOA
2012	104.4 (22)	-4.3% (18)	24.2 (21)	14% (31)
2013	108.9 (20)	3.1% (11)	21.0 (9)	0.9% (16)
2014	100.8 (22)	-16% (27)	23.1 (19)	-2.3% (13)

It's especially notable because of the Colts' embarrassing performances in both of those categories in high-profile losses.

The team rushed for just 63 yards and allowed 51 points to the Steelers in Week 8. They rushed for just 19 yards and allowed 42 points to the Patriots in Week 11. They rushed for one single yard and allowed 42 points to the Cowboys in Week 16. They rushed for just 83 yards and allowed 45 points to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

No, Pagano hasn't made his mark on the run game or defense.

Toughness? That's something Pagano exudes as a man and preaches as a coach.

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

But again, there are those high-profile losses, losses where the Colts got steamrolled in the trenches. It's a particular sore subject because the Colts have targeted "toughness" and strength up front every offseason. Jim Irsay was tired of the "finesse" label the Colts had for so many years under Bill Polian.

Those Polian teams got whipped in New England back in the early 2000s, prompting the never-ending criticism of Polian's strategy of focusing on skill positions and equipping a high-powered offense first.

But bring in Pagano and Ryan Grigson, and the Colts' seasons still have ended which stinkers in New England. These losses have been even worse, in fact.

What about a deep desire to fight, those signature comeback wins that the Colts have been known for under Andrew Luck?

Maybe you could give some of that credit to Pagano, especially as the win over Kansas City in the playoffs last season comes to mind. The comeback against Seattle in Week 9 of the 2013 season was a signature win as well.

But most of the Colts' signature comebacks in the last three years came under Bruce Arians, like games against Green Bay or Detroit. The comebacks under Pagano have, outside of the Seattle win, come against bad teams that never should have been ahead in the first place. Starting the season with a close win over Oakland in 2013, for example. Or needing a few heart-stopping breaks against Cleveland in Week 13 of this past year.

And again, those New England losses stick in the craw. No comebacks were happening on those nights.

I imagine if you asked people inside the organization this question, they'd laugh you out of the building.

Anybody who has talked to Pagano likely won't forget the interaction. He is, in a word, infectious. Talk to the players in the locker room in Indianapolis, there's little doubt he's made a profound impact on their lives in some way or another.

That personality has also been a big part of his recruitment of players in free agency, like Andre Johnson and Frank Gore this offseason.

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Former UM guys LOVE Chuck Pagano. He was a great recruiter at UM. Not surprised he still has the touch. He's also good people.

— Joe Casale (@sportsJC16) March 10, 2015"

That's a big part of who Pagano is, and it's a strength worth valuing.

But directly impacting the product on the field? It's much more difficult to elucidate.

He's been outcoached in big spots by guys like Belichick. Of course, everybody does, but the Colts' shortcomings have come at a much more drastic scale.

The Colts have been ill-prepared for numerous big contests, inconsistent week-to-week and have taken notoriously long to adjust to their best players' strengths (just look at the evolution of the Colts offense from the beginning of 2013 to now, for example).

Some of this has to do with the personnel Pagano has to work with, of course. The team was forced to make Trent Richardson the No. 1 back, for example. But on the other hand, the team has lost by an average or 29 points in its last four matchups against New England. There isn't a 29-point talent difference in those two teams.

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Chuck Pagano punted, Bill Belichick went for it on 4th down. "I thought we had a deal!"

— Pete Damilatis (@PFF_Pete) January 19, 2015"

I have no doubt that Pagano has made an impact on the franchise in numerous, immeasurable ways, especially if we start boiling it down to individual interactions. Personally, I think he and the coaching staff did a good job with the team for most of 2014 (outside of those disastrous losses, of course), and you could find plenty of people he's worked with to vouch for his coaching chops.

In the end, there is too much invested in this particular relationship to see it going belly-up anytime soon. Pagano will be the coach in 2015, and there's a 95 percent chance he's back on a multi-year deal for 2016 and beyond.

But if Jim Irsay is going to be convinced that he must spend top dollar on a new contract for Pagano next season, he'll likely want to see the Colts more convincingly take on the identity of Pagano.

Tough. Balanced. Strong at the point of attack.

And I don't just mean against the AFC South.