Portland Trail Blazers' Biggest X-Factors with 2015 Postseason Nearing
With approximately one month remaining in the 2014-15 NBA season, the Portland Trail Blazers are a near-lock to win the Northwest Division. Unfortunately for Rip City, seeding out West is far from determined.
When it comes to the Blazers, there are plenty of factors that could make or break Portland's postseason position. For starters, Arron Afflalo has become immensely more important with Wesley Matthews sidelined for the year.
Also, don't ignore Nicolas Batum. His play as of late has been exactly what Portland needs, but his performance on the season has been too inconsistent to assume he's officially "back."
Portland has been considered a fringe contender all season, but it's time for the team to shed the label if it wants to be taken seriously. The Blazers have five weeks to gain as much momentum as possible, and there are a handful of things that will make or break their run toward a championship.
The Play of Arron Afflalo
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When Afflalo joined this organization at the trade deadline, it was clear he would be an X-factor. His presence in the rotation was supposed to get Portland over the hump, but that expectation has become amplified since Matthews suffered his injury on March 5.
As B/R's Frank Cesare stated:
"While Afflalo isn't a horrible player by any means, his style of play doesn't mesh well enough with Portland's to circumvent the loss of Matthews. The Blazers will need to either adjust the way the offense runs or hope Afflalo's defense is enough to rationalize his lack of sniping ability.
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Cesare's skepticism comes from the numbers. As the B/R scribe stated in his article on March 9, "Afflalo is most efficient from within the three-point line. As a Blazer, he's knocking down 50 percent of his shots between 15 and 19 feet. But from 25 to 29 feet, the guard is hitting only 28.3 percent of his shots, via NBA.com."
Although it's unlikely Afflalo becomes a volume three-point shooter, a reliable scorer from downtown is necessary for this team to find success. Afflalo will also need to establish himself as a prominent perimeter defender if he hopes to replicate Matthews for the final stretch of the season.
Health
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The Trail Blazers cannot afford injuries. Many across the Association probably believed this was the case before Matthews went down, but that's what makes staying healthy even more important for this team moving forward.
Although games lost to injury are one way of looking at health, you must consider the caliber of the players lost. Is an injury to LaMarcus Aldridge the same as Joel Freeland's ailment? Or better yet: Is Matthews being lost for the season equal to C.J. McCollum's early-season hand injury?
Not even close.
At this juncture, Portland is really hoping for Batum, Aldridge and Robin Lopez to avoid reaggravating the issues that sidelined them this season. Of course, a freak loss of Damian Lillard would be devastating, but (knock on wood, Portland) the youngster has yet to miss a game in nearly three years.
Simply put: This team needs some good karma. A good, healthy run won't make up for years of heartbreak, but it will be one of the first steps toward making it beyond the second round of the playoffs—a feat this team hasn't accomplished since 2000.
The Play of Nicolas Batum
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If you look at Batum's numbers, virtually every major statistic has seen a drop since 2013-14. He's posting just 9.5 points per game on 39.6 percent shooting (29.6 3PT%), and even his 4.8 assists and 5.6 rebounds are down from a year ago.
All that said, consider what the 26-year-old swingman has done since All-Star Weekend. His 12.9 points per game in that period are still a bit underwhelming, but his 42.5 three-point percentage and 51.4 field-goal percentage are what fans have been waiting for.
As Mike Prada of SB Nation stated recently, "POR's best chance to go deep is for Nicolas Batum to snap out of his season-long funk. That’s true with or without Matthews."
Although Batum's shooting numbers have always been important, he's been able to find success in other categories, knowing Matthews was the true No. 3 scorer. With the Marquette product sidelined, the Frenchman must be willing to step up the same way he did when he recorded 20 points (6-of-11 FG, 4-of-8 3PT), eight assists and seven rebounds on March 4 against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Bench Production
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The Blazers had seemingly found their bench savior when they traded for Afflalo. Unfortunately, with the 29-year-old now thrown into the starting lineup, it's necessary for everyone else to step up.
With 21 games remaining, Portland is 29th in bench scoring, according to HoopsStats.com. The second unit is also just 26th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency.
Where can the Blazers turn? When it comes to the bigs, Portland needs to decide between Freeland and Meyers Leonard at power forward. Both have shown potential and production at different points in the year, and now that both are healthy, a decision must be made to create continuity going into the playoffs.
At guard, you will see more minutes for Steve Blake, C.J. McCollum and newcomer Alonzo Gee. Blake has proven to be reliable in the clutch, both as a shooter and as a distributor. McCollum, on the other hand, has a natural ability to create for himself but has been inconsistent.
And as for Gee, while we haven't seen much of him yet, he's a versatile player who can notch minutes at three positions. He and Dorell Wright will likely battle for time at the 3, but the decision should come down to who is able to hit the floor while avoiding mistakes on both ends.
As mundane as it might sound, "avoiding mistakes" is the operative concept Portland needs its bench to implement. It doesn't need anyone to take over, considering how talented the starting five is.
It needs to have a sense of reliability and consistency off the pine. It would behoove the Blazers to get down to a nine- or 10-man rotation once the playoffs finally arrive.
The Final Roster Spot
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The Trail Blazers have an open roster spot. While that didn't seem too significant before Matthews' injury, it's now something general manager Neil Olshey should look at with a close eye.
Following the announcement that Matthews would miss the rest of the 2014-15 season, Olshey reached out to the holy grail of current free agents: Ray Allen. Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski was the first to report Olshey's interest in the veteran, and he also made it known that Allen's agent "informed the Blazers that Allen, 39, remains intent on sitting out the season[...]"
With Allen out, there are no hot free agents in play for Portland. However, it wouldn't hurt Olshey to check out both the Association and the NBA Development League for an available guard who could fill a position.
Will the Blazers sign someone? That remains to be seen. But it's one of the storylines worth following as the team looks to define its rotation with the playoffs around the corner and Matthews out of the lineup.
The Rest out West
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Blazers fans would like to say Portland controls its own fate. The Rip City faithful would like to believe the Larry O'Brien Trophy is theirs to lose.
Unfortunately, there are eight other teams vying for positioning (nine if you believe the Phoenix Suns will remain competitive) with the postseason around the corner.
Although the Blazers can't control how those eight play, the drive and determination of those looking to climb the rankings is something you can't ignore. After all, the Western Conference has 10 teams with winning records at the time of this publication, while the East is stuck at six.
While Portland should be considered a favorite, there's no guarantee for home-court advantage in the second round. The Blazers need to gain as much momentum as possible with the playoffs in sight, and if they can grab a third seed or better, they'll be in great position to make the Western Conference Finals for the first time since the 1999-2000 season.
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