How Arron Afflalo and Nicolas Batum Can Pick Up the Slack for the Trail Blazers

The Portland Trail Blazers looked like a dark horse to come out of the west, but with Wesley Matthews tearing his Achilles (March 5), those championship dreams may be crushed. 

LaMarcus Aldridge called Matthews the heart and soul of the team, via Sean Meagher of Oregonlive.com: "He means a lot to this team. I've played with him for seven, eight years now so to not have him out there is going to be tough." 

Damian Lillard spoke about Matthews' impact on the team, saying, "It's so much bigger than what he does on the floor. It's the energy he brings every day to the practice facility—the smile, cracking jokes. You know what you're going to get from Wes every day, you know what person is going to show up every day."

The 6'5" 220-pound Matthews was exceptional for Portland this season, scoring 15.9 points per game with an effective field-goal percentage of 56.2 and 8.54 wins produced, via Box Score Geeks.

For a Blazers team that averages 27.7 three-point attempts—second-most in the NBA—losing a floor spacer and gunner like Matthews is devastating.

Is Arron Afflalo the Right Replacement?

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Although the franchise was fortunate enough to have acquired Arron Afflalo at the trade deadline to fortify its bench, the newcomer may not be capable of filling Wes' void. 

Matthews was good for 6.4 win shares and a value over replacement player of 3.1 prior to his injury, via Basketball-Reference.com. Afflalo has never had a VORP better than 2.5 in his career, and he's been good for only two win shares total this season. One could chalk up the lack of win shares to how poorly the Denver Nuggets have performed in 2014-15, but it is still disconcerting knowing how little of an impact Afflalo had on his prior team. 

Afflalo has never been a consistent three-point shooter in his career, either. This season, with Denver, he shot 33.7 percent from beyond the arc. He's had some success earlier in his career from three, shooting a career high 43.4 percent from the three-point line in 2009-10, but since 2010-11, he's only shot better than 40 percent once from three, which was last season with the Orlando Magic when he knocked down 42.7 percent of those shots. 

In addition to being a three-point-shooting team, the Blazers also rely heavily on spot-up shooting. Via Josh Planos of The Washington Post, "More than 20 percent of the team’s executed plays are spot-up jumpers. As of Friday, Matthews was six points shy of the league lead in spot-up points generated this season, and although Afflalo ranks in the 75th percentile in the category, the swap still provides a regression in a staple of the team’s offense."

Afflalo is a decent scorer off the dribble, capable of creating his own shot at times, but a ball-dominant guard isn't what Portland needs. He must be consistent from the perimeter. 

With Aldridge and Robin Lopez on the blocks, the Blazers need shooters around them to keep the floor well spaced. Afflalo is most efficient from within the three-point line. As a Blazer, he's knocking down 50 percent of his shots between 15 and 19 feet. But from 25 to 29 feet, the guard is hitting only 28.3 percent of his shots, via NBA.com. 

While Afflalo isn't a horrible player by any means, his style of play doesn't mesh well enough with Portland's to circumvent the loss of Matthews. The Blazers will need to either adjust the way the offense runs or hope Afflalo's defense is enough to rationalize his lack of sniping ability. 

For the organization to push through this adversity, a guy like Nicolas Batum will need to elevate his game and become more of an X-factor.

Batum's Impact

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The 6'8" 220-pound Frenchman is an incredibly skilled player who can guard three positions, rebound and distribute well as a forward. But he hasn't played up to his fullest abilities this season—partly because of a torn ligament in his right wrist that he experienced on Dec. 17.

Although Batum has recently been taking on more responsibility and delivering when needed, he's been lackluster this year due to his ailment.

In March, Batum is scoring 13.5 points per game, grabbing 7.5 boards and dishing 5.5 assists. For the Blazers to get through Matthews' devastating injury and still maintain championship hopes, he must continue performing as he has this month.  

And if he could replicate his performance against the Los Angeles Clippers (March 4) on a consistent basis, the franchise may have a chance at making a finals run.  

Portland has developed a familial bond, so perhaps Batum has found himself as a player, returned to form and is desperate to help his brothers achieve their goal. Lopez and Aldridge wrote some encouraging tweets after the Clippers win:

In 2013-14 Batum had the highest effective field-goal percentage on the team with 55.4 percent, via Box Score Geeks. This year, throughout his struggles, his EFG% is only 46.6 percent. Batum needs to find some consistency and perhaps rethink his shot selection.

He's shooting at or below league averages across the court—except for the paint—and he's been abysmal from the three-point line, as seen in the graphic below:

http://on.nba.com/1A467Ds

Oddly enough, a lot of the spots on the floor Batum is struggling with were actually hot spots for him last season, as indicated by his shot chart in 2013-14:

http://on.nba.com/182fV9a

For Portland to have a chance in the playoffs, Batum needs to find some rhythm and knock down the shots he's banked on in the past. It's been a tough year for him, due to the discomfort in his shooting wrist that he's played through.

Although he's struggled this season, he's immensely talented and with his team in despair, he might receive enough of an adrenaline boost to get back on track. He's hitting 48.8 percent of his shots from the field in March, if he can keep that up and doesn't experience any setbacks with his wrist, the Blazers may be able to tolerate losing Matthews. 

Can Portland Overcome Adversity?

Anytime your two best players are Aldridge and Lillard, you have a chance to make a deep run in the playoffs. Both athletes are top five at their positions and are capable of taking games over when needed. 

The loss of Matthews makes their jobs more challenging. Defenses will be able to focus more attentively on them, and the half-court offense may not run as smoothly, but they're elite players capable of rising to the occasion. 

However, as talented as they are, without Matthews there may not be enough firepower around them to get through the gruesome competition in the Western Conference. Portland had depth issues to begin with, prior to Wes' injury, and as long as Batum's woes continue, the burden may be too great for the Blazers. 

In order for the franchise to make an NBA Finals run, luck will have to be on their side. 

If Batum reverts to his struggles—or re-aggravates his injury—Portland will be in trouble, unless guys like Steve Blake, CJ McCollum and Dorell Wright get on fire from the perimeter. Either way, the franchise must play lockdown defense and grind out games more than they have in the past.

The addition of Afflalo will help them defensively, but he will need to stifle his opponent and ignite as many fast breaks as possible. 

The season isn't lost for the Blazers, but it certainly won't be an easy road for them. Batum will need to continue the dominance he's displayed this month, and Afflalo must shoot the ball more efficiently than he did in Denver. 

If Portland catches some breaks along the way, the organization could make a finals run this year, but in general, the odds aren't in their favor. Losing Wes was a devastating blow that caps the team's upside.