Coby Fleener Still Needs to Improve to Warrant a Top Contract

When it comes to the Indianapolis Colts' Coby Fleener, it doesn't feel like there is much room for compromise.

There seems to be two camps on Fleener. On one side, you have fans who saw Fleener rack up 51 catches, 774 yards and eight touchdowns in 2014 and considered that a great season for a third-year tight end. This side tends to use words like "top-10 receiving tight end" and "breakout year."

The other side tends to remember the dropped passes and lack of playmaking. The words most often used for this camp aren't quite so forgiving.

"

Also, Coby Fleener is terrible.

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) February 23, 2015"

Certainly, there is some middle ground here. There are far worse tight ends than Fleener in the league, and you can't dismiss the raw production. At the same time, when a national analyst like Cian Fahey watches all of Andrew Luck's throws from 2014 and comes away with the above opinion on Coby Fleener, it's worth noting.

But let's start with the positive and reinforce what I wrote about at the end of the 2014 season: In Pep Hamilton's offense, Coby Fleener finally began to realize expectations in 2014.

To start, you can just look at his overall production.

Fleener eclipsing 50 catches, 750 yards and eight touchdowns in a single season is fantastic raw production. It's never been done by more than five tight ends in a single season (2013), and Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were the only other tight ends to do so in 2014.

Dallas Clark and John Mackey were the only other Colts to do so, and they each did it just once.

Then there's the big-play factor. For the first two seasons of his career, Fleener struggled to make the downfield plays that his size and speed combination had been coveted for. But in 2014, the Colts put Fleener in more positions to make big plays, and it paid off.

Fleener had 16 catches that gained 20 yards or more in 2014, with Rob Gronkowski (19) being the only other tight end with more than 15 such plays.

The other thing about Fleener is his health. While versatile Dwayne Allen has been very effective when on the field, he's missed 20 games over the last two years, including playoffs. Fleener missed four games during his rookie season, but he's played in every game over the last two years, and that kind of reliability is extremely valuable.

Throw in Fleener's chemistry with Andrew Luck (the two have played together every year for the past seven years), and you have some pretty good selling points.

But it would be irresponsible to leave there.

Let's start by taking a closer look at Fleener from a statistical standpoint.

On one hand, let's go ahead and get this out of the way: Comparing Fleener's raw stats to Dallas Clark or any other tight end in Colts history is a fool's errand. The Colts have set passing-attempt records over the last three years, and Fleener has been one of the team's top three options in the passing game for a large part of that time.

Clark, on the other hand, backed up Marcus Pollard to start his career and was in a three-wide receiver base offense that included Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James and Brandon Stokley. Oh, and Clark still managed to be much, much more efficient (he was a top-five tight end in DVOA in his second and third years, according to Football Outsiders).

While Fleener's raw totals seem great, let's take a look at his efficiency.

	DVOA	Catch Rate	Drop Rate	EPA/Play	Success Rate
Statistic	10.3%	55.8%	10.53%	0.25	48.2%
Ranking (TEs)	14	36	29	24	33

The league's best tight ends are extremely efficient, being a safety valve for their quarterbacks.

Granted, Fleener being targeted deep down the field more often could affect this. Over 20 percent of Fleener's targets came 20 or more yards down the field, the third-highest percentage among tight ends, according to Pro Football Focus.

But even if you remove Fleener's deep targets (20 or more yards), his catch rate is still lower than 57 percent, which would still rank 36th out of 39 qualifying tight ends, according to Advanced NFL Analytics.

His catch rate, drop rate, success rate and expected points added per play are all below average or abysmal. Fleener's stats are propped up by his abnormal amount of deep passes, which may not be sustainable. Nearly 38 percent of Fleener's yards came on targets of over 20 yards or more, per Pro Football Focus, with his 291 yards on such plays being over 100 yards more than the next tight end.

Fleener wasn't much of a weapon on third down, either. Just 10 of his 25 targets on third down produced successful conversions (40 percent). By contrast, Antonio Gates converted 67 percent of his third-down targets, Rob Gronkowski converted 57 percent, Zach Ertz converted 53 percent and Jimmy Graham converted 50 percent.

The number of touchdowns Fleener caught are a bit of an anomaly as well. Dwayne Allen was the guy who got most of the Colts' looks in the red zone; Fleener was largely held to long touchdowns.

Just one of Fleener's scores came in a game that wasn't a blowout win (a score in the Colts' 33-28 win over the Houston Texans), and he caught four of his eight touchdowns in two games: The blowout against Washington in Week 13 and the Colts' 17-point win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 17. The Colts didn't even play all of their starters in the latter.

So, the biggest question is whether Fleener can sustain this success on explosive plays down the field.

For that, we go to the film, where I watched all 20 of Fleener's deep targets from 2014.

The vast majority of Fleener's deep catches came against zone coverages, often blown coverages. Fleener didn't get much separation in man coverage, and he struggled to make contested catches or adjust to back-shoulder balls. He also dropped wide-open long touchdowns with no defenders within 10 yards on two separate occasions.

While his speed did get him open a few times, and he flashed better ball skills than in the past, it still was far too inconsistent.

"

Coby Fleener is the Jay Cutler of tight ends.

— Leo (@LeoHowell8) December 1, 2014"

Pep Hamilton was able to get Fleener open with a lot of well-schemed plays in 2014, but it seems unlikely to repeat after defensive coordinators crunch the film over the offseason.

For example, Fleener had a lot of success against the New England Patriots in Week 11, catching seven passes for 144 yards and actually beating man coverage a few times. But when the Colts faced New England in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots locked him down and held him to 30 yards on just three catches.

To look at it another way, Fleener averaged less than three catches and 34 yards per game against divisional opponents (the teams that know him best) last year.

Fleener still remains a weapon down the field due to his speed and chemistry with Luck, but if he's looking for a premier, multiyear contract back with the club after 2015, he'll need to take another leap.

The Colts have other players who will take precedence, such as Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Anthony Castonzo. And if Dwayne Allen stays healthy all season and has a good year, the Colts could opt to keep the more well-rounded player.

This could come off as an anti-Fleener piece to some, and I hope that's not the case. The former Stanford tight end is a good piece for Hamilton to use in his multi-TE sets, and he's embraced the Colts and the Indianapolis community in a way that has endeared him to fans. Just his physical stature and chemistry with Luck alone makes him a guy you hope will succeed and stay in Indianapolis for the long haul.

But we also have to be honest about his limitations, which have been stark thus far in his career. He will likely be looked at as Luck's No. 2 target after Hilton next year, and Fleener must use the opportunity to solidify his standing as the Colts' tight end of the future.