Can the Philadelphia Eagles Afford to Trade Up for Marcus Mariota?

The NFL draft is fast approaching, and with just over two months to go until the NFL's offseason Super Bowl, the most compelling storyline across the league is hitting full stride. The story, of course, is whether the Philadelphia Eagles and head coach Chip Kelly will sell the farm to trade up and draft Kelly's former college quarterback, Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. 

With the Eagles picking 20th in the first round and Mariota expected to be the second quarterback off the board, there's almost no chance that he falls to the Eagles' spot in the draft.

According to Peter King of Sports Illustrated, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will likely select quarterback Jameis Winston No. 1 overall, meaning Mariota could be selected by the Tennessee Titans (second), New York Jets (fifth), St. Louis Rams (10th) and Cleveland Browns (12th). Even teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, who pick 18th, would have to really consider Mariota if he fell to their draft spot. 

It's fairly obvious that the Eagles will need to pull off a massive trade before the draft to move up for the potential franchise quarterback. As the weeks go by, more and more experts are coming out and saying they think the Eagles will get Mariota.

Just recently, King mocked Mariota to the Eagles in a trade. CBSSports's Pat Kirwan did the same. And Jimmy Kempski, an Eagles beat reporter for Philly Voice, recently tweeted that he's "becoming more and more convinced daily that the Eagles are trading up to #1 prior to the draft."

There's no doubt that Kelly wants Mariota. He's on record as saying that his former college quarterback is the best player he ever coached, per Bryan Fischer of NFL.com. Just look at Mariota's success in college. Even without Kelly for his last two seasons, Mariota threw for 105 touchdowns and just 14 interceptions during his college career. He's big, strong, fast and intelligent, and he doesn't turn the ball over. Oh, and he's a choir boy off the field, in case there were any issues about Kelly's "culture over scheme" philosophy. 

Even as a rookie, Mariota's athletic ability would make him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the National Football League, especially with an offensive genius like Chip Kelly and playmakers on offense like LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin (hopefully), Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz. 

The big question is what it would take for the Eagles to move up for Mariota. Now, Winston is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, according to mock drafters, but for the Eagles to guarantee the right to draft Mariota, they likely have to secure Tampa Bay's No. 1 pick. 

In the past, no team has ever traded up from as low as pick No. 20 to No. 1, so there's not even a historical comparison to make for what the Eagles need to do. Basically, they need to do what no other has team has done before. 

Below are three recent trades, some bigger than others, that occurred in the first round and what each team had to give up in the trade. Two involve potential franchise quarterbacks and one involved one of the best receiver prospects of the last decade. 

Year	Player	Moved Up	Moved Down	Compensation	Worth it?
2015	Marcus Mariota?	Philadelphia?	Tampa Bay?	?	?
2012	Robert Griffin III	Washington	St. Louis	2012 (6, 39), 2013 1st, 2014 1st for 2012 (2)	No
2011	Julio Jones	Atlanta	Cleveland	2011 (26, 59, 118, 124), 2012 1st for 2011 (6)	Probably
2009	Mark Sanchez	NY Jets	Cleveland	2011 (17, 52) for 2011 (5)	No

Everybody would argue that the trade the Jets did for Mark Sanchez ended up not working out, as Sanchez's five years in New York were largely disappointing. But all the Jets had to give up to move up 12 picks in the first round was an additional second-round pick. That's not including the obvious switching of their first-round pick with Cleveland. That's not a hefty price at all, and it helped the Jets not set back their franchise a few years even though Sanchez's career didn't go as planned. But it's definitely a win for the Browns in this trade. 

The Falcons' trade for Julio Jones has probably worked out, although the Falcons have won just one playoff game during Jones' four seasons. The haul the Falcons gave up just for a receiver was pretty extreme, as it included a second-round pick and two fourths plus an additional first the next season. But Jones has been terrific. Even with a major foot injury during 2013, Jones has averaged close to 1,100 yards per season. In fact, he holds the all-time record for receiving yards per game (88.4). We'll call it a win for the Falcons. 

The Redskins' trade for Robert Griffin III was easily the biggest of the three, and it makes the most sense, as RGIII was a much better prospect than either Sanchez or Jones. To move up just four picks, the Redskins gave up two additional first-round picks and an additional second-round pick, not counting the switching of first-round picks in 2012.

The Redskins looked like geniuses during RGIII's rookie season when the former Heisman winner led Washington to a division title and became the only quarterback in history to lead the league in yards per attempt passing and rushing in the same season. But a brutal knee injury in the Wild Card Round severely hindered RGIII's sophomore campaign, and he's never come close to recovering since.

He's been so bad in the last two seasons that NFL expert Greg Cosell suggested in an article that RGIII needs quarterbacking 101. The jury is still out on RGIII's career, as he just turned 25 years old, but through three seasons, there's no way the trade has been worth it for the Redskins.

The Rams have used the picks to select potential franchise cornerstones like Zac Stacy, Greg Robinson, Alec Ogletree and Janoris Jenkins, but in a taste of irony, their supposed franchise quarterback, Sam Bradford, has regressed badly over the past three seasons. So it's hard to call the trade a win for the Rams when they still need a quarterback, but it's impossible to call it a win for the Redskins. We'll call it a draw as of now. 

So for the Eagles to move from No. 20 to No. 1, they're clearly going to have to give up a massive haul. It makes the most sense to look at the Redskins' deal for RGIII as the blueprint, although that was to move up four picks, from No. 6 to No. 2.

This year, the Eagles draft eight times: once in each of the seven rounds, plus twice in the fourth round. All of their picks are 20th in the round, with the additional fourth-round pick at No. 14. According to the draft value chart devised by former Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson, that's worth 1,520.2 total points. For the No. 1 overall pick, the Eagles need 3,000 points. So their entire 2015 draft, including the extra pick, is worth just over one half of what it would take to acquire Mariota. 

But a team like Tampa Bay isn't going to be interested in low-round draft picks. They're going to want first-round picks. Lots of them. 

There's also a chance Tampa Bay could be interested in a number of players, notably quarterback Nick Foles, defensive end Fletcher Cox and/or Vinny Curry, linebacker Mychal Kendricks and cornerback Brandon Boykin. All are 2012 draft picks who have not yet been extended, meaning they're currently on their rookie contract. Running back LeSean McCoy, even with his $11.95 million salary in 2015, is another trade option. 

However, let's assume the Eagles surrender just draft picks. Looking at past historical examples, that's how these trades usually work out. 

Here's a realistic option for the Eagles to move from No. 20 to No. 1: 2015 first and second, 2016 first and second and 2017 first. Let's assume the Eagles' first-round picks in 2016 and 2017 are also No. 20. According to the draft value chart, the Eagles will be giving up 3,310 points of picks for 3,000 points of picks. That's an advantage for Tampa Bay, but they also have an incredible amount of leverage, as the entire football world knows how badly Kelly wants his former college quarterback. 

If the Eagles really are interested in Mariota, they haven't done a very good job of keeping their cards close to their chest because their interest is obvious to every single team in the National Football League. Just listen to Chip Kelly gushing about Mariota's Heisman season and it's hard not to wonder just what he would be willing to give up to get his guy at quarterback. And now that Kelly has complete control of the Eagles organization, don't rule out this blockbuster trade actually happening.