2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for New York Jets Stars
The New York Jets' fantasy stars face drastic changes as the franchise puts the Rex Ryan era in the rearview for 2015. Chris Johnson, Geno Smith and Percy Harvin eye swiftly changing scenarios, while Eric Decker and Chris Ivory prepare to anchor the 2015 New York Jets offense.
The Jets ushered Ryan and general manager John Idzik out after their fifth and second seasons respectively. New head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Mike Maccagnan already have dot coms dedicated to their termination, although the content is yet to be determined, according to Dan Martin of the New York Post.
The dilemma facing Woody Johnson is what is really different besides shifting for the sake of change?
He fired a first-time general manager and first-time, defensive-minded head coach, replacing them with a first-time general manager and a first-time, defensive-minded head coach.
Huh?
Bowles—most recently the defensive coordinator of the Arizona Cardinals—needed a strong offensive presence to balance his staff. He brought Chan Gailey out of pseudo-retirement, despite the fact Gailey lacked a steady gig since Buffalo fired him in 2012.
"Hearing that Todd Bowles' four-year will be at least $16 million. Chan Gailey, out of football last 2 yrs, will be his OC, per source. #nyj
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) January 14, 2015
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Gailey’s NFL coaching tenure includes equal parts train wreck and reclamation success, according to Pro Football Reference. But using the past to predict his scheme with the Jets is futile, per Dan Reeves in an article by the New York Post’s Bart Hubbuch.
“The one thing about Chan is that you can’t peg him. He’s been in a lot of different systems with a lot of different schemes, and he’s been successful in all of them,” said the former NFL head coach.
Hubbuch also quoted Gil Brandt of the NFL Network concerning Gailey:
"Good luck predicting what he’s going to do with the Jets. You might think he’s going to be run-first because of the Steelers or pass-happy because of the Bills, but I bet you he’s looked at a hundred tapes while he’s been out these past two years, knows the trends and will put his own spin on them.
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Regardless of New York’s feeble 2014 results, the Jets are poised to u-turn with a No. 6 draft pick and the fourth-most cap space ($49 million), according to Over the Cap.
The question is: How many of the Jets’ current fantasy stars will be around to enjoy the transition?
Honorable Mention
1 of 10
Greg Salas, WR
Salas is a four-year veteran out of Hawaii with 43 career receptions between three teams and free agency on the horizon.
His fantasy importance remains nil.
Bilal Powell, RB
Powell received infrequent opportunities in 2014 after making the most of an expanding workload in the previous two seasons.
His fantasy significance is restricted to his being a free agent in 2015.
Chris Owusu, WR
New York scooped Owusu off Tampa Bay’s waiver wire early in 2014.
"Jets will be signing WR Chris Owusu, who was recently cut by the Bucs, I'm told. #nyj
— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN) September 29, 2014
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The Stanford product could become the Jets’ WR3 if Percy Harvin is let go.
Daryl Richardson, RB
Richardson didn’t see the field in 2014, but the waiver pick up was a former RB1 with the St. Louis Rams. If Bilal Powell leaves via free agency and Chris Johnson is cut for salary reasons, Richardson could climb to RB2 on the depth chart.
The third-year, 5’10”, 196-pounder out of Abilene Christian could spell Chris Ivory for a change of pace in Chan Gailey’s spread attack.
Michael Vick, QB
2 of 10
Vick believes he has something left in the tank, according to ESPN.com's Rich Cimini via Twitter.
"Michael Vick said he has "a good, solid two years" left in his career. #nyj
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) December 23, 2014
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He also admitted to tanking it earlier in the season, according to Seth Walder of the New York Daily News.
"I learned a lesson last week: Always stay ready, always be prepared.
That left a bitter taste in my mouth that I wasn’t able to go out and put points on the board or even help this team in any fashion. So this week has been a different work week. From me throughout the rest of the year, it’s going to be totally different for me as far as my preparation.
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Vick’s physical gifts allowed him to overcome a lack of preparation throughout his 12-year career. The problem is the 6’0”, 215-pounder will drag a physically diminished 35-year-old frame into 2015 training camp.
Vick might catch on with a team as a character guy, as noted in this truly unexpected twist from ESPN.com’s Darren Rovell.
But the four-time Pro Bowler has no fantasy relevance left. Vick logged his lowest passer rating (68.3) since his rookie year (62.7) and he didn’t run in a touchdown for the first time in his career, according to Pro Football Reference.
It’s time to close the book on a fantastically streaky fantasy career.
Jeff Cumberland, TE
3 of 10
Cumberland led all Jets skill players in snaps with 926, according to Pro Football Focus. But PFF rated the converted wide receiver last among tight ends thanks in part to the second-worst run-blocking grade at his position.
Although Cumberland made 14 starts to Jace Amaro’s four—according to Pro Football Reference—the rookie outscored the five-year veteran 41 to 40 in standard leagues, according to ESPN Fantasy Football.
Expect Cumberland to continue to cede playing time and fantasy results to Amaro in 2015.
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Jeremy Kerley, WR
4 of 10
Kerley’s midseason contract extension pinpoints the type of moves that got John Idzik fired just two years into the job.
"We have signed WR Jeremy Kerley to a 4-year extension. pic.twitter.com/VAgxsZS5XA
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 21, 2014
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The Jets re-signed the small, speedy receiver just four days after trading for Percy Harvin; a better small, speedy receiver.
"The #Jets have traded for #Seahawks WR Percy Harvin, source confirms (as @JayGlazer reported). Compensation is conditional mid-rounder
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 17, 2014
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Kerley’s performance tailed off as a result. He gained 263 combined yards and a touchdown before Harvin arrived in Week 9. He only managed 183 yards and no touchdowns after, according to Pro Football Reference.
His contract ranks 46th among wide receivers, per Over the Cap, but his fantasy numbers ranked 87th among wideouts in 2014, per ESPN Fantasy Football.
Kerley won’t be a fantasy factor in 2015 if Harvin remains in New York.
Chris Johnson, RB
5 of 10
Johnson’s name is popular on cap-casualty lists because the soon-to-be 30-year-old would save the Jets $3.5 million if released before February 16, according to ESPN.com’s Rich Cimini.
The All-Pro managed just 814 combined yards and two touchdowns on 179 touches, according to Pro Football Reference. His 663 rushing-yardage total marked the first time he finished below 1,000 in his seven-year career.
Johnson opened the 2014 season as the Jets starting running back, but he surrendered that title to Chris Ivory by Week 4. He earned three more starts throughout the season, but Ivory outpaced him 124 to 82 in fantasy scoring, per ESPN Fantasy Football.
Johnson’s recent arrest for openly carrying a firearm only damages his chances of returning to a Jets organization determined to reverse its fortunes.
"#Jets RB Chris Johnson was arrested last night in Orlando on a misdemeanor weapons charge. Open carrying of a weapon. pic.twitter.com/isTKm4IRCT
— Erika Esola (@emesola) January 10, 2015
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This member of the 2,000-yard-rushing club is now nothing more than a fantasy reserve no matter where he lands in 2015.
Geno Smith, QB
6 of 10
Smith knows this is a critical offseason for his Jets future with a new regime on the sidelines and in the front office, according to Dan Martin of the New York Post.
"I wouldn’t say it’s my last chance, but it’s definitely a very, very vital offseason for myself and very important for a lot of people for a lot of reasons.
The only thing I can focus on is when we get the opportunity to get back into camp, every single day is going to be a competition day for all of us. I look forward to that.
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Smith expects the Jets to bring in a challenger via free agency—Brian Hoyer, Colt McCoy and Ryan Mallett headline those available—or in the draft, especially if Jameis Winston and/or Marcus Mariota drop, per Martin.
"No matter who it is, it’s going to be competition.
We’ve got a new coach coming in, and I don’t think anyone wants to make any decisions too quick. These things are going to play themselves out. We’ve just got to be patient.
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Chan Gailey is known for getting more than others out of subpar quarterbacks: Kordell Stewart, Tyler Thigpen and Ryan Fitzpatrick posted some of their best numbers with Gailey at offensive coordinator or head coach.
Smith finished 2014 strong in meaningless games from New York’s perspective, averaging 15.5 fantasy points, per ESPN Fantasy Football.
If Smith gets the Jets QB1 call in 2015 he’s still a borderline QB2 in fantasy.
Jace Amaro, TE
7 of 10
New York made Amaro the third tight end taken—No. 49 overall—in the 2014 NFL draft. The Texas Tech product outplayed Eric Ebron and Austin Seferian-Jenkins in their rookie seasons, according to Pro Football Focus.
Amaro’s hand size dominated the concerns as he entered his rookie year, according to Michael Salfino of The Wall Street Journal. His nine-inch mitts landed him in the second percentile among his rookie peers, according to Mock Draftable.
A training camp teammate heckled, “Can’t catch a cold,” according to Brian Costello of the New York Post.
This trend continued into his rookie season with Amaro dropping 13.64 percent of the 44 catchable passes thrown his way, per Pro Football Focus. He finished 34th out of the 39 tight ends that took at least one-quarter of their teams’ snaps.
Yet Amaro made the all-rookie team of several major outlets including Pro Football Writers of America, Sports Illustrated and NFL.com. It’s a positive foundation for a promising player forced to learn his second offense in as many years in the league.
Keep an eye on Amaro’s progress but don’t expect him to crack the top 10 for fantasy tight ends in 2015.
Percy Harvin, WR
8 of 10
Harvin finds himself atop the list of New York’s potential cap casualties, according to Rich Cimini of ESPN.com.
Although the versatile speedster could be a cornerstone in Chan Gailey’s fledgling Jets offense, Harvin bears injury concerns, behavioral baggage and a hefty price tag as well.
Harvin’s only complete season—2011 in Minnesota—was also his best season, ranking seventh among wide receivers in fantasy scoring, according to Pro Football Reference. His injury history reads like a rap sheet of fantasy failures.
Speaking of rap sheets, although Harvin has never been arrested for off-field behavior, his football-related altercations are lengthy and troubling, according to Cimini. Why else would the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks be so willing to part with such a tremendous offensive talent.
Harvin’s five-year, $64.2-million contract ranks third among wide receivers, per Over the Cap. His fantasy numbers ranked tied for 62nd, according to ESPN Fantasy Football.
You do the math.
The impending downside relegates Harvin to the mid-to-late rounds in 2015 fantasy drafts unless he joins an elite offense.
Eric Decker, WR
9 of 10
Decker stood alone as the best wide receiver in the 2014 free-agent class after Jeremy Maclin re-signed with Philadelphia. John Idzik made Decker the 17th-highest paid wide receiver in the league, according to Over the Cap.
Decker’s signing was perceived as a money-grab, but the five-year veteran out of Minnesota disputed those claims, per Howie Kussoy of the New York Post.
"I definitely didn’t come here for those reasons.
The [Jets] were a team that was very interested. You think other teams would be interested in you or you’d get other offers, but, hey, sometimes it doesn’t work like that. You get one or two teams that are really interested, and you make the best decision for you as a football player and person.
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The problem with his acquisition is few if any expected Decker to repeat the 1,000-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns he averaged with Peyton Manning at the helm. He ended 2014 with 74 catches for 964 yards and five touchdowns from the lesser combination of Michael Vick and Geno Smith.
Decker finished 28th in wide receiver fantasy scoring with 120 points, according to ESPN Fantasy Football.
Although he managed a respectable season considering the pathetic state of the Jets offense, Decker separated himself from the league’s elite via a diminished performance.
Don’t expect Decker to ascend above a WR2/flex come draft day.
Chris Ivory, RB
10 of 10
Ivory emerged as an effective feature back in 2014, ranked tied for ninth in rushing by Pro Football Focus. He’s never averaged below 4.1 yards-per-carry in his five-year career, according to Pro Football Reference.
The 6’0”, 222-pound punisher out of Tiffin lacks experience but also the wear-and-tear that comes with it. If Ivory can improve his pass-blocking—rated 56th out of 57 among his peers, per Pro Football Focus—he might spend less time on the sidelines in 2015.
He ranked third on Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating, evaluating a running back’s ability without his blockers. He finished 17th in rushing yards (821) despite sharing significant playing time with Chris Johnson.
Ivory is the Jets' most valuable offensive weapon and deserves RB2-consideration in 2015. He shouldn’t last past the third round.
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