Is Pau Gasol's Impact Being Overstated for the Chicago Bulls?
Pau Gasol, a renaissance man of several different shapes, is having somewhat of a renaissance season. In his first go around with the Chicago Bulls, Gasol has bounced back from two hellish years beneath Mike D'Antoni's thumb (perhaps the only basketball system ill equipped to utilize all the offensive skills Gasol brings to the table).
His per game and per-minute numbers are nearly identical to accumulate averages since the 2011-12 season, but Gasol’s PER, true shooting percentage, free-throw rate and rebounding percentage are all noticeably up. He’s 34 years old, averaging 35 minutes per game, and there’s a lot to smile about, including a starting spot in the All-Star game—ahead of Chris Bosh, Al Horford, Kevin Love and Paul Millsap.
Gasol moves the ball, sets solid screens and has helped scrub over one of the league’s most notoriously sticky offenses. The Bulls are scoring 105.5 points per 100 possessions with Gasol on the floor right now; overall, they averaged just 99.7 last season.
But there's also a tilt-your-head aspect to what's going on, too. Gasol’s individual turnaround is a nice story, but how does he make Chicago a better basketball team? In an attempt to try and figure out whether Gasol’s impact has been overstated, here’s a closer look at his play on both ends of the floor.
A big question asked when the Bulls first signed Gasol was how he’d fit into their stout defensive scheme. He’s obviously large (7’0”), but he has serious miles on the odometer and was never a feared shot-blocker or consistent deterrent of opposing shots at the basket.
So far, there’s been some good, and there’s been some bad. On defense, the Bulls surrender a little over 2.0 points per 100 possessions when Gasol plays. Some of that’s due to Chicago having Taj Gibson roar off the bench, and some of it’s due to Gasol facing opposing starters instead of secondary units.
Several numbers support the idea that Gasol is doing a great job in the paint. According to SportVU, he defends 11 field-goal attempts at the rim per game—most in the NBA—and players shoot just 47.9 percent when he’s nearby. That's a pretty good number that right now is actually better than his brother, 2012-13 Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol.
Chicago’s new center is huge and has fantastic control of his arms. That combination allows timely reactions to slithery ball-handlers who try and hide the ball before laying it up. According to NBA.com, Bulls’ opponents shoot 54.3 percent in the restricted area when Gasol is in the game. That number jumps to 61.2 percent with him on the bench. He's blocking more shots than ever before.
But not all his worth should be measured by interior play. Gasol spends a ton of his time in the paint, dropping back on almost every pick-and-roll. But he’s still needed away from the basket. It’s here that problems arise. According to SportVU, Gasol’s man is 3.4 percent more accurate on shots coming at least 15 feet from the basket when Gasol is the defender, as opposed to anybody else.
This play doesn't look like a big deal—David Lee taking an inefficient long two? Sounds like a win for Chicago!—but it is. And it hints at a larger issue. Gasol doesn't make the slightest attempt to guard his man. He lets Lee catch a pass, get comfortable and then fire away. Contesting outside shots is a key part of NBA defense, and Gasol doesn't do it as often as he should.
Here's Gasol stepping out to contain Miami Heat forward Luol Deng, who's running a pick-and-roll with Chris Andersen. Gasol lets Deng turn the corner, forcing Joakim Noah to slide off Chris Bosh and help. Deng gets beneath the rim, then hits Bosh for a dunk. He's a tree out there.
ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus statistic measures a player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors.
Gasol ranks 99th out of every player in the league, 30th among power forwards and 14th among centers. For defensive RPM, Gasol ranks lower than Love, who’s widely considered one of the least capable paint protectors in basketball.
He's averaging 11.8 rebounds per game, but as Grantland's Zach Lowe points out here, that number is a bit misleading:
"Even Gasol’s career-best rebounding numbers feel a bit inflated," Lowe writes. "Gasol is hoarding uncontested boards and snatching relatively fewer up-for-grabs rebounds, per NBA.com. The Bulls manage much better on the defensive glass when Gasol sits."
Gasol is a major part of Chicago’s offense, mostly as someone who directs traffic from the elbows—initiating handoffs and launching mid-range jumpers—and does serious work in the post, despite converting at a below-average rate in the restricted area. But he's still a tremendous passer, able to create open looks all over the court.
Several Bulls post higher shooting percentages than their average after catching a pass from Gasol, including Derrick Rose, Aaron Brooks, Noah and rookie forward Nikola Mirotic, whose overall field-goal percentage spikes an incredible 18.2 percent. The Bulls offense is better than last year, and Gasol is surely a reason why. (They’re just as efficient when he’s on the bench, for the record.)
It's difficult to say whether Gasol's numbers are as impressive as they look. He's averaging 18.3 points per game and posting a 22.3 PER, which leads the Bulls. But Chicago is 30-18 and so far has mostly failed to meet its lofty championship expectations.
Is Gasol holding them back in any way? It's unfair to go that far. He isn't the dominant low-post artisan of 2009, but overall he makes the Bulls a better team. They can win the title, so long as he tries just a bit harder on defense.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.
Michael Pina is an NBA writer who's been published at Bleacher Report, Sports on Earth, FOX Sports, Grantland and a few other special places. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.
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