Matt Bowen's Super Bowl XLIX Film Study
As we count down the days until Super Bowl XLIX, former NFL defensive back Matt Bowen bring you his film study: a breakdown of personnel, matchups and scheme on the championship stage.
Five Players to Watch in Super Bowl XLIX
1. Earl Thomas, FS, Seahawks
As one NFL scout told me this week, Thomas is an “eraser” in the middle of the field because of his ability to take away the seam and the post. Just look at the range, speed and route identification that allow Thomas to close the intermediate throwing windows in the Seattle Seahawks’ single-high schemes (Cover 1 and Cover 3).
If the New England Patriots want to work the seam or throw the inside breaking dig/skinny post, quarterback Tom Brady will have to move or hold Thomas in the deep middle of the field. That’s not easy given Thomas’ football awareness and his ability to break on the ball.
The Seahawks have speed and length on all three levels of the defense. But Thomas’ impact is critical to the success of the scheme. He is a top-tier talent and the key piece to Pete Carroll’s unit.
2. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots
Run the ball downhill. Old-school, physical football. That’s how I see the Patriots setting their offensive game plan with Blount versus the speed and athletic ability of the Seahawks defensive front when strong safety Kam Chancellor drops down into the box.
The inside-zone and stretch scheme will allow Blount to read the pursuit of the linebackers (creates cutback lanes), while the one-back power, Iso and lead draw out of two-back looks give the Patriots the ability to attack the interior of the Seahawks defense.
Forget running the ball to the edge versus this defense. That’s poor game-planning, and it will result in negative-production situations. Instead, utilize the size and skill set of Blount as a downhill, power back who can make defenders miss in the hole.
3. Jamie Collins, LB, Patriots
If the Patriots want to limit Russell Wilson’s ability to run the football when he breaks contain or steps up to expose open rush lanes, Bill Belichick can use Collins as a “spy” given the linebacker’s athleticism at the second level.
As you can see here in this example, the Arizona Cardinals defensive front loses lane discipline. That allows Wilson to come off his primary read, pull the ball down and produce an explosive gain to flip the field.
The Green Bay Packers used Clay Matthews in the NFC championship to “spy” Wilson, and I believe Collins can have the same impact in specific game situations when the Seahawks quarterback looks to run the ball. Force Wilson to make plays inside of the pocket. That has to be the goal.
4. Bobby Wagner, LB, Seahawks
The Seahawks linebackers are very disciplined in their zone drops as they gain depth, get their eyes on the quarterback and then close on the ball with speed to eliminate the underneath checkdowns.
On Sunday, I expect the Patriots to utilize running back Shane Vereen out of the backfield on the option route, flat and checkdown. This is where Wagner has to showcase his ability to take the proper angle to the ball and tackle in the open field.
Brady is very patient, and he has no problem throwing the ball underneath to force defenders to tackle in one-on-one situations. Wagner will be tested (especially on third downs) to make plays in the open field to protect the sticks.
5. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots
Think about the inside crossing routes, Hi-Lo schemes and pick/rub concepts the Patriots run with Edelman aligning inside the numbers or in a reduced split. This allows the wide receiver to work back across the field or separate from the defensive back when the Patriots create some traffic (pick) inside.
If the Seahawks do play more zone (Cover 3), look for Edelman to sit down in the holes between the underneath defenders. That’s a quick read for Brady to get the ball out, especially in 3rd-and-2-6 situations.
I don’t know how often we will see Edelman aligned outside in a plus split versus Richard Sherman or Byron Maxwell when the Seahawks press their corners. Instead, I would look for Edelman to make his impact inside where the Patriots can work two-level combinations to get the receiver open.
Five Matchups to Watch in Super Bowl XLIX
1. Tom Brady vs. “Legion of Boom”
The Patriots should run the classic three-deep beaters (three-level sail, smash-seam, four verticals, etc.), but how will they create throwing windows given the technique of the cornerbacks (pattern-match vertical releases) and Thomas in the post?
Both Sherman and Maxwell will funnel receivers to Thomas in the middle of the field, and the underneath defenders can sink to cushion or carry the inside seam routes. There is limited room to work with when this Seattle defense closes the door on intermediate concepts.
If the Patriots can establish the run game and create play-action situations, there will be some opportunities to target this Seahawks secondary once the second-level linebackers are removed. But in terms of the dropback game, the Patriots have to lean on those three-deep beaters and the ability of Brady to manipulate the secondary with his eyes to target Rob Gronkowski inside of the numbers.
2. Rob Gronkowski vs. Kam Chancellor in the Red Zone
One-on-one in the red zone. That’s what I want to see with Gronkowski versus Chancellor. The best versus the best. The top two players at their respective positions where the matchup will be won or lost with technique at the point of attack.
As I have talked about before, the Patriots will remove Gronkowski inside of the deep red zone to the backside of a 3x1 formation (“Dakota”).
This creates a true one-on-one situation with Gronkowski isolated from the formation. And given the field position, the free safety help won’t impact the slant or fade. Chancellor can play with an inside shade (take away the slant) and then react to the fade (drive to the hip).
But it starts at the release given Gronkowski’s size (6’6”, 265 lbs) and power to run through the jam. That’s where he generates leverage to pin defensive backs to the outside. If you see this formation Sunday, focus on Chancellor’s initial punch and his ability to stay square at the snap to take away the slant.
3. Darrelle Revis vs. Doug Baldwin
What impresses me with Baldwin is his ability to win within the route scheme. This is where the wide receiver uses the stutter move to force defensive backs to squat or settle their feet while he creates separation to work up the field.
But can Baldwin beat Revis when the Patriots cornerback plays from a press position and utilizes his elite technique to jam, reroute and drive to the hip through the break point?
Baldwin is a playmaker for this Seattle offense, and he does show up in crucial game situations. However, I like this matchup for the Patriots. I believe Revis can limit Baldwin, use the free safety help of Devin McCourty and take away one of Wilson’s top options in the passing game.
4. Russell Wilson vs. Bill Belichick
We talked about using Collins as a “spy” versus Wilson, but how will Belichick game-plan to shut down the read-option scheme Sunday night? Wilson is the best read-option quarterback in the game, and he is smooth in the open field once he pulls the ball off his initial read to get to the edge of the defense.
Can the Patriots use a “scrape exchange” technique (edge defender plays the dive, linebacker scrapes to the quarterback), or will they coach the defensive end/outside linebacker to “slow play” the mesh point (quarterback-running back exchange) to limit the option scheme?
Plus, we can’t forget about Marshawn Lynch’s production when the edge defender fails to close on the dive. That’s when Lynch finds daylight and pushes the ball up the field. Let’s see how the Patriots defend the read-option to account for Wilson on the edge and Lynch inside on the zone scheme.
5. Seahawks’ Edge Speed vs. Patriots Offensive Tackles
Brady is excellent at working the pocket when he slides, steps up and then resets his base to deliver the ball. However, given the edge speed of Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett and Bruce Irvin, can offensive tackles Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer win on the outside consistently?
Check out this example from the AFC Divisional Playoffs with Brady stepping up and resetting his feet to find Gronkowski down the field on the seam route versus Cover 3.
Bennett will bump down inside at times, and that will create an interior matchup for the Seahawks. But I’m more focused on the offensive tackles and their ability to protect the edge while washing the edge-rushers up the field. Give Brady enough room to manage the pocket at the top of the drop.
Tape Session
Here are three things to look for Sunday night from a scheme/personnel perspective.
Patriots’ Unbalanced Formations
Throughout the playoffs, the Patriots have used unbalanced sets and unique personnel groupings to gain an advantage versus opposing defenses. Here’s a look at Solder’s touchdown catch versus the Indianapolis Colts out of an unbalanced look.
With the No. 1 receiver (count outside-in) off the ball, Solder is uncovered and the last man on the line of scrimmage. This make him an eligible receiver as the Patriots clear out the top of the secondary and use Solder on a delayed release.
I don’t know what we will see Sunday, but keep an eye on how the Patriots use their formations and alignments to produce a positive gain.
Switch Verticals vs. Cover 3
“Two through the zone.” That’s the best way to describe switch verticals versus Seattle’s Cover 3—a three-deep beater that occupies the cornerback while creating a one-on-one matchup on the wheel route versus the curl-flat defender.
In this example, the Philadelphia Eagles remove the cornerback on the post and then send the tight end on the rail/wheel versus the linebacker. With the top of the defense now occupied, the tight end can stack versus the linebacker and carry this route down the field for six points.
Seahawks’ Cover 1 “Robber”
Given the underneath crossing routes the Patriots run, we could see the Seahawks use Cover 1 “Robber” (safety drops inside) like they did during the Super Bowl win over the Denver Broncos last season.
With Chancellor playing the “robber,” the Seahawks strong safety baits Peyton Manning into throwing the shallow crossing concept before driving downhill to light up Demaryius Thomas.
That’s good, clean, physical football.
Seven-year NFL veteran Matt Bowen is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report.
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