Patriots vs. Seahawks: Complete Super Bowl Preview for New England

Contrary to what the national media may have you believe, the 2014 NFL season is not yet over.  Super Bowl XLIX, pitting the top two seeds and two of the most dominant squads over the last three seasons, has seemed like a footnote in the wake of a silly yet persistent controversy.

But regardless of how you may feel about the New England Patriots, there's little doubt that they've been the AFC's best squad all season.  The Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are the league's top two teams by both conventional (record, point differential) and advanced (Elo, DVOA) metrics.  Both organizations elicit polarizing public responses, but they are also indisputably the most deserving teams to play for a championship.

From a New England perspective, the Seahawks present as many matchup issues as any team it has faced.  Seattle's ability to control the trenches will allow it to play to its strengths while replicating past blueprints used to defeat the Patriots; moreover, Seattle's vaunted secondary and Russell Wilson's scrambling ability serve as troubling factors that can derail a team that is unaccustomed to the 'Hawks.

Thus, anything less than the Patriots' A-game will result in the third Super Bowl loss of the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era.  At the same time, New England is one of the few squads with enough depth and schematic versatility to stymie Seattle's superb talent.  Read on for the most crucial keys and matchups the Pats must win against the Seahawks.

Patriots Conference Championship Recap

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Lost in the Deflategate hullabaloo is the fact that the Patriots played one of their best all-around games against the Indianapolis Colts.  While New England was the superior team, it was nonetheless impressive to see it neutralize Indy's passing game and execute an offensive game plan that everyone saw coming.

The 45-7 beatdown was essentially a replica of the previous three wins against the Colts in the Andrew Luck era, all of which have come by at least three touchdowns.  This time, the Pats "only" compiled 177 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, utilizing plenty of power personnel with Michael Hoomanawanui and James Develin playing heavy workloads.

It'll be interesting to see if the Patriots try to maintain a semblance of offensive balance against Seattle.  Though the Seahawks possessed the second-ranked run defense by Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics, the Green Bay Packers averaged 4.5 yards per attempt behind bruising back Eddie Lacy.  If the Pats can get into their uptempo rhythm, perhaps that would give LeGarrette Blount an opportunity to do damage between the tackles, where the Seahawks are (relatively) at their weakest.

Defensively, the Patriots defensive backs played an excellent game, limiting Luck to a mind-boggling 3.8 yards per attempt.  Part of that success stemmed from their ability to keep Luck in the pocket and not allow him to extend plays, as he is one of the league's best quarterbacks at improvising late in the down.

Of course, Russell Wilson is one of the few who might exceed Luck in that skill set, and his scrambling ability is unparalleled.  The Pats haven't game-planned to contain a quarterback's running ability this season, so diagnosing how they might approach Wilson is anyone's best guess.

News and Notes

New Sign for Ineligible Receivers

New England has wreaked havoc this postseason with its ineligible receiver shenanigans, which push the rules in typical Patriot fashion.  However, as The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo relays, Pete Carroll explained earlier this week that the Seahawks will be better prepared for the sudden formations due to a request for a new signal from officials:

"

We made a call [to the league] and asked about that. They came back with a very clear response.

When a player with an ineligible number will be eligible, that’s the same, but when an eligible number is now ineligible, they’re going to make new a declaration to the players on the field, so that you’ll clearly identify that.

Carroll showed the new signal from the podium during Thursday’s interview session at the Seahawks team hotel. The official will point to player and make a low arm-crossing motion to indicate ineligible.

"

In the AFC Championship Game, the officials gave the Colts more time to adjust between plays than the Ravens received in the divisional round.  Nevertheless, it's hard to conceive of too many more wrinkles the Pats could come up with from those formations, especially considering that the Seahawks don't really bend their hybrid single-high zone defenses for any offense.

More likely, New England's offensive efficacy in the Super Bowl will come down to its ability to win against arguably the best player on the Seahawks defense.  Contrary to common perception, that player is not in the much-heralded "Legion of Boom."

Bennett Key to Super Bowl

Based on Pro Football Focus' grading metrics, Michael Bennett's plus-26.4 grade was the highest on the Seattle defense.  In fairness, that's not necessarily meant to suggest that he's Seattle's best defender in a vacuum.  Nevertheless, that grade ranked second among all 4-3 defensive ends this season, behind only Cameron Wake.

I'll have more on Bennett later, but it's safe to say that he deserves as much attention and concern as any player on the 'Hawks defense.  As theScore.com's Alen Dumonjic argues, Bennett's playing style evokes some ghosts of past Patriots Super Bowl losses:

"

Bennett is the one to be concerned about. He is the one who floods back bad memories of that championship game against the Giants. The one who is reminiscent of and capable of doing damage like Justin Tuck did.

Like Tuck, Bennett is a versatile pass rusher who primarily plays left defensive end on the strong side. He’s athletic, quick and physical, able to weave his way through seams that initially seem slammed shut.

"

The New York Giants stymied New England's offense in those Super Bowls with their pass-rushing "NASCAR" packages, which allowed them to disrupt Tom Brady's throwing lanes with their length along the defensive line.  The Seahawks have a similarly constructed unit, and Bennett is at the forefront of the matchup problems Seattle can create in the trenches.

Revis Sticking Around?

Win or lose on Sunday, Darrelle Revis has been a transformative force in the Patriots defense.  Given the regression of young corners Alfonzo Dennard and (to a lesser extent) Logan Ryan, as well as Brandon Browner's slow start, it's not a stretch to suggest that the Patriots secondary would have been in shambles this year without Revis' presence.

As such, the Pats might not be so inclined to let him hit the open market.  Revis' contract contains a dummy second year with an unpalatable cap hit of $25 million, $11 million more than Brady's hit.  The Pats have never bent their principles for an outsider, and it seems unfathomable that New England would bend so far to pay a player nearly twice as much as the franchise quarterback.

But Bleacher Report's Jason Cole has suggested in the above embedded video that the Pats could keep Revis around at that mammoth number if they can't work out an extension.  In fairness, Revis is one of the only players the Patriots have ever employed who can approach Brady in terms of talent and respect in the locker room.  No matter what happens in the Super Bowl, the 2015 Patriots' championship aspirations would be exponentially higher with Revis on the roster.

Injury Report

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Player	Position	Injury Status
Bryan Stork	C	Limited Participation
Dont'a Hightower	LB	Limited Participation
Akeem Ayers	DE	Limited Participation
Chris Jones	DT	Limited Participation
Sealver Siliga	DT	Limited Participation
Tom Brady	QB	Full Participation

With starting center Stork returning to practice, the Patriots are as healthy as one could hope for after five months of football.  The Pats aren't releasing any information about the severity of Stork's knee injury, but given the consensus that he suffered a sprained MCL in the divisional round, he'll probably be playing at less than 100 percent on Sunday.  With Seattle's best pass-rushing defensive tackle Jordan Hill on injured reserve, though, that might not be as harmful as one might expect.

Elsewhere, New England added Akeem Ayers to the injury report on Thursday with a knee injury, though it seems unlikely to keep him out of action.  Ayers' snap count has significantly diminished since Chandler Jones' return, and given the likelihood that the Pats go heavy up front to counter Seattle's running game, don't expect much playing time for the midseason acquisition regardless of his health status.

With the Seahawks having just five players on their own injury report, it's clear that fortuitous luck has played a role in forging this Super Bowl matchup.  It's rare to see the league's two best teams stay upright the whole season, so regardless of your rooting interest, appreciate the depth of talent that will be on display.

Injury report courtesy of Patriots.com.

X-Factors and Matchups to Watch

Patriots Defense vs. Marshawn Lynch

I've already gone over this matchup in greater detail here, but it's still worth highlighting as the singular factor that should have the greatest determination on the game's outcome.  Quite simply, the Seahawks have succeeded the entire season in wearing teams down late, a strength that could allow Seattle to take control of what should be a tight contest.

I also put the entire defense under the microscope in this matchup rather than just the front seven, as containing Lynch in conjunction with Russell Wilson is truly an 11-man effort.  Given that Seattle relies primarily on "11" personnel (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB), it seems feasible that the Patriots might try to counter in "big nickel" base defensive packages the majority of the game.

That would lessen the role of corners Kyle Arrington and Logan Ryan while likely thrusting Tavon Wilson into the spotlight.  It's a bit similar to what the Pats utilized in the divisional round against Baltimore, and though the run defense struggled in that contest, that was more about the linemen failing to get off blocks and hold their gaps.

Playing Wilson and Patrick Chung gives the Patriots a little more beef in their nickel package while also providing a potential coverage option against rising tight end Luke Willson (much like how they defended Owen Daniels as a tandem toward the end of the Ravens game).  There's no easy way to contain the Seattle running game, but this seems like an option the Pats might consider on Sunday.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Kam Chancellor

Multiple analysts have dissected this matchup, as both players are physically freakish outliers at their respective positions.  In truth, Gronkowski and Chancellor are probably each other's best foils in this league.

However, this matchup is significantly more important for New England to win.  According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Seahawks are a top-six defense against every type of receiver.  That's hardly a surprise when considering their strength at cornerback; though shiftier receivers like Emmanuel Sanders and even Preston Parker have given the 'Hawks issues at times, it would be surprising to see any of the Pats wide receivers win consistently.

However, the Seahawks ranked a surprisingly mediocre 18th in DVOA against tight ends this season.  That number is slightly misleading, as they only conceded 41.4 yards per game to opposing tight ends, the sixth-best mark in the league.  Apart from Antonio Gates' vintage three-touchdown Week 2 performance, no other tight end has exceeded 58 yards in a single game against Seattle.

But they have yet to face Gronkowski since 2011, and his ability to run the full route tree will stress Seattle's zone principles.  The throwing windows will be tighter given the combination of speed, size and length in the 'Hawks secondary, but if Brady is on point, Gronkowski has an opportunity to become this game's focus.

Right O-Line vs. Michael Bennett

We're expanding this beyond left tackle Sebastian Vollmer since Bennett is a movable chess piece along Seattle's O-line.  Perennially underrated because of unspectacular sack totals, Bennett has been an elite pass-rusher for years now, lining up as both a weak-side "Leo" end as well as an interior rusher in sub-packages.

Indeed, among 4-3 defensive ends this season, Bennett ranked sixth in pass-rushing productivity, with 71.4 percent of his rushes coming from the defensive left side.  The onus will largely fall on the duo of Vollmer and Ryan Wendell (assuming starting center Bryan Stork can suit up) to block Bennett and provide Brady enough time for his receivers to shake loose.

With Bruce Irvin and Cliff Avril often flanking Bennett, the 'Hawks present a difficult pass-rushing trio to contain.  If there's some encouragement from a Pats perspective, it's that they contained Baltimore's similarly talented pass-rushing trio, allowing just 15 pressures on 53 dropbacks that game.

But scheme played a large role in that success, as Brady was able to consistently hit the underneath routes against a depleted Ravens secondary that was forced into playing soft zone coverage.  Those holes won't be so open against Seattle, so this time, the O-line will face a greater number of passes that extend deep into the down.

X-Factor: Shane Vereen

Remember when we showed how Seattle was strong against all types of receivers?  Tight end may have been a bit of a misleading weakness, but defending running backs has been a more pressing issue for the 'Hawks this season.  Seattle's pass defense also ranks 18th in DVOA against opposing backs, but they've also surrendered 43.8 yards per game to the position, 11th-most in the league.

Given that LeGarrette Blount will probably have issues finding consistent running room, expect Vereen to receive the majority of the snaps in this game.  The fourth-year back has experienced a bit of a renaissance in the playoffs, averaging 40 receiving yards per game in the two contests after averaging just 28.7 receiving yards per game since New England's bye week.

The 'Hawks aren't going to have a single linebacker cover Vereen, as he'll likely stress the four underneath zones in Seattle's man-free lurk concepts.  Look for the Pats to take a couple of deep shots on wheel routes with Vereen, hoping to catch one of Seattle's linebackers outflanked along the sideline.

Prediction

For the first time since Tom Brady's first season as a starter, the Patriots are not clear favorites in the Super Bowl.  It's an unfamiliar position for the Pats, and given Brady's advancing age as well the attacks on New England's organizational integrity, there is probably as much urgency for this game as any in franchise history.

Both teams hold small edges on the margins, but in reality, this game's outcome will come down to the premier strength-on-strength matchups that no one can predict.  Both teams have weapons that neither side has encountered all season, and the lack of familiarity will put Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll in the spotlight in terms of constructing a game plan against a dangerous and unknown foe.

If both squads play their best game, New England probably has less margin for error.  There's a strong suspicion from this view that the game will come down to the trenches, as teams that have beaten the Patriots typically win at the line of scrimmage.  The Seahawks appear to hold slight edges there on both sides of the ball, though the advantage is small enough that it's not inconceivable for the Patriots to overcome them.

Nevertheless, the smart money is probably on Seattle for this game, despite the wildly disparate forms these teams exhibited in the conference championships.  Ultimately, accurately predicting this game is probably impossible, as both teams are so complete that it's hard to imagine the outcome coming down to anything but a few toss-up plays at the end. 

The Brady-Belichick era Pats have not played in a Super Bowl decided by more than four points, a trend that has a strong chance of continuing on Sunday.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Patriots 22

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus.