Oklahoma City Thunder Are in Danger of Losing Touch with West's No. 8 Seed Again
During their nationally televised 112-101 loss to the Houston Rockets Thursday, the Oklahoma City Thunder played well for just one of the four quarters. That inconsistency could sink them in a cutthroat Western Conference which brims with so much talent; the defending-champion San Antonio Spurs currently rank seventh despite being eight games over .500.
Approaching the midway point on the schedule, the 18-20 Thunder sit 3.5 games out of eighth place, tied with the lowly Denver Nuggets. It plots out an uphill climb to the end of the season, during which the Thunder must elevate their play while also hoping that the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans fade as the schedule drags on.
Inauspicious Start
The Thunder started the 2014-15 campaign like molasses after Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both suffered injuries. Back-of-the-envelope calculations quickly concluded that the Thunder could miss the playoffs owing to their brutal 3-12 start.
Then the stars returned for December and the team reeled off a seven-game win streak to come within one game of .500, but that wave of momentum crashed and broke back.
The return of the team's Olympic duo seemed to right the ship, but the Thunder have gone just 6-7 since that seven-game win streak. Durant did miss an additional six games in late December, but OKC played inconsistent ball both during that absence and following KD's return.
A number of players flashed skill in bursts while Westbrook and Durant were injured, including Perry Jones and Anthony Morrow, but neither of them proved capable of being a consistent contributor.
Talented reserve guard Reggie Jackson would seem to warrant more minutes, but his playing time has waned instead. The Thunder also acquired Dion Waiters in a trade with the Cleveland Cavaliers, a shoot-first guard who basically overlaps with Jackson in the role of top bench scorer.
Thunder general manager Sam Presti said of the move in a press release: "Dion provides another proven scorer that positively impacts our roster and adds depth and flexibility." However, while Waiters does add some needed bench scoring, it seems to be another instance of the Thunder pairing up players who are not complementary.
Will the Real OKC Please Stand Up?
Inconsistency has been the bugaboo for OKC, not just from game to game but even from quarter to quarter.
During Thursday's loss in Houston, the Thunder fell behind 23-6 to open the game and trailed by as many as 24 late in the first quarter. Houston dropped 40 points on them in the opening 12 minutes, led by 15 from James Harden.
Following the game, Durant shouldered responsibility for OKC's slow start:
The Thunder punched right back, with KD awakening after his one-point start to score 15 in the second quarter on his way to 24 for the game. They won that frame 35-24, but settled for a stalemate of a second half and another loss. Harden finished with 31 points and came within one rebound of a triple-double.
Westbrook played crazy eights, scoring 16 points to go with eight boards, eight dimes and eight turnovers. Afterward, he wasn't in a very talkative mood with reporters:
That line is emblematic of the star point guard's maddening inconsistency. Westbrook exudes talent, but he too often seems overeager, as if his skeleton could jump out of its own skin at any moment.
As Bleacher Report's Josh Martin wrote recently: Trouble is, when Durant and Westbrook aren't on their respective games, even while occupying their usual places in the games, there's only so much those other guys can do. When so many touches are devoted to so few players, that puts a ton of pressure on those stars to perform.
Among players who drive to the basket at least seven times per game, only Tyreke Evans, second-year guard Trey Burke and rookie Elfrid Payton have a worse field-goal percentage on those drives than Westbrook's 41.5 percent, according to NBA.com. That is due in part to Westbrook's tendency to go out of control on his way to the rim.
There are 24 players who fit that criteria and have a better shooting percentage on drives, led by uber-efficient guards Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Tony Parker and Kyle Lowry.
The Thunder need Westbrook to harness his superlative skill and athleticism and play more in the vein of those guards. He needs to be consistent and efficient, not occasionally brilliant and always dramatic.
As the old saw holds, there is only one ball, and Durant is the skinny straw that stirs the drink. Over his last seven games, Westbrook has shot 32.6 percent on 129 field-goal attempts; OKC is 3-4 in those games. While the team shares the blame for its middling play of late, Westbrook has not been a catalyst for success like he could be.
Tough Road Ahead
A gauntlet lies ahead of the Thunder over the next six games. They host the mighty Golden State Warriors on Friday and then hit the road for a slate of five games in eight days, visiting the Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, Washington Wizards, Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Nine games remain after that before the All-Star break, including two games each against the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans, plus a Sunday matinee against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Let's hypothesize that the Thunder play decently during that tough stretch and go 8-7. That puts them at 26-27 with just 29 games remaining.
To illustrate how dire such a circumstance would be at that point, last season the Suns finished 14 games over .500 and missed the playoffs. The Thunder would have to go 20-9 after the break just to reach 10 games above .500.
ESPN's "Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds," which are based off of their power rankings, places the Thunder's chances of making the playoffs at 20.6 percent. That's a decent shot, but not even half as strong as the ninth-place Pelicans (54.6 percent) or eighth-place Suns (58.1 percent).
The injuries notwithstanding, it's unacceptable for a team with Durant, Westbrook and Serge Ibaka to have a one-in-five chance of even reaching the postseason.
ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard reported Thursday that the Thunder were involved in trade talks to acquire Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez for guard Jeremy Lamb, part of a larger three-way deal that would send Charlotte Hornets guard Lance Stephenson to the Nets for Jarrett Jack. As Charles Barkley said during the TNT halftime show of the Cavaliers versus L.A. Lakers game Thursday evening: "If Oklahoma City gets Brook Lopez, it’s a game-changer."
That may or may not be true, but adding length and offense to the frontcourt and upgrading from Kendrick Perkins will not be a panacea for the Thunder. They still have a massive challenge ahead of them in digging out of the hole their mediocre play dug so far.
That will require balancing the rotation, carving out a place for Jackson and Waiters to coexist and weathering the existential crisis that comes with having Durant and Westbrook on the same roster—not to mention poor finishes from the Pelicans and Suns.
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