Can Colts WR T.Y. Hilton Recover Pro-Bowl Form Against the Patriots?

One of the best developments for the Indianapolis Colts this season was the emergence of T.Y. Hilton as a true No. 1 receiver. 

Last season, Reggie Wayne went down with an ACL injury, opening the door for Hilton to take on the load. It was an inconsistent 2013, but Hilton stepped up in the playoffs, putting up 224 yards and two touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs. He followed it up with 103 yards against the New England Patriots the next week. 

Still, there was question whether or not Hilton would be that legitimate No. 1 target for a full season, especially with Wayne returning. I, among others, had faith in Hilton continuing to be Andrew Luck's No. 1 target in 2014, despite Wayne's return, but even I didn't envision Hilton coming on as strong as he did. 

Year	Receptions	Yards	Yds/Rec.	Yards/Route	50+ Yard Games	DYAR
2012	50	861	17.2	1.80	7	159
2013	82	1083	13.2	2.03	7	155
2014	82	1345	16.4	2.35	12	300

Hilton became one of the Colts' most consistent players this season, and one of the top wide receivers in the league. 

With Hilton displaying the ability to take over games and beat defenses all over the field, it opened up room for other players to succeed. As safeties began to shift over Hilton more and more often, the middle of the field opened up for Coby Fleener, who had a career year with 51 catches, 774 yards and eight touchdowns. 

Fleener wasn't the only one to benefit from the Hilton's presence. The entire offense put up astounding total numbers, ranking tops in passing yards and touchdowns in the league, and ranking third in total yards. 

Oh, and Hilton received his first Pro Bowl berth of his career.

But in the playoffs, Hilton's performance has been mixed. 

On one hand, Hilton has shown a concerning case of the dropsies. 

In the regular season, Hilton had just five drops, his 5.75 percent drop rate ranking among the top third of receivers in the league, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Hilton's drops were a concern during his rookie season, but he's become more sure-handed as his career has progressed. 

Year	Targets	Catches	Catch Rate	Drops	Catchable	Drop Rate
2012	88	50	56.8%	10	60	16.67%
2013	134	82	61.2%	6	88	6.82%
2014	123	82	66.7%	5	87	5.75%
2014 Playoffs	20	10	50.0%	4	14	28.57%

Except, it seems, in these playoffs.

Hilton has left critical first downs, big plays and touchdowns on the field in both of the Colts' playoff matchups, something the Colts won't be able to afford in New England. 

Yet, on the other hand, Hilton has still impressed this postseason, racking up six catches for 103 yards against the Bengals and four catches for 72 yards against the Broncos, as well as drawing a holding penalty on Aqib Talib in the end zone to get the Colts a 1st-and-goal from the 3-yard line. 

Both of those games came against impressive secondaries that were game-planned specifically to limit him, but Hilton still showed flashes of dominance and led the Colts in receiving in both games. Hilton now has the second-most playoff receptions through his first three years in NFL history, and the third-most playoff receiving yards for a player in his first three years. 

The question now, is whether he can be the Pro Bowl player that Colts fans have come to know and love against the Patriots, or whether the "dropsies" and Bill Belichick's game-planning will be too much of a burden on Sunday. 

"I have to go back to the drawing board," he said, referring to his drops after the Colts' win over Cincinnati, via the Colts' team site. "I wasn't myself today. I was rushing things, trying to make extra plays. I just wasn't myself."

On one hand, the Patriots haven't exactly been Hilton's kryptonite. 

In his rookie season, Hilton had one of his five 100-yard games against the Patriots, racking up six catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Last season, in the postseason, Hilton caught four passes for 103 yards, despite being virtually the only receiving threat the Colts had (the other receivers were Da'Rick Rogers, La'Von Brazill and Griff Whalen). 

But the Colts still struggled to stay consistent offensively in those games, and Hilton's production seemed hollow as the Colts got blown out on the road.

Then, this year, the Patriots were able to contain Hilton in Indianapolis, limiting him to just three catches for 24 yards in New England's 42-20 win. For the Colts to win on Sunday, that can't happen. Hilton is the second-most important person on the Colts offense, providing the Colts with big plays but also being a key chain-mover for the Colts. 

This season, 64 of Hilton's catches went for first downs, the seventh-highest total in the NFL. The next-highest receiver for Andrew Luck? Reggie Wayne, with 40. Unfortunately, in the last two meetings, the Patriots were able to limit Hilton to just seven combined catches and five total first downs. That's simply not good enough for the Colts' best weapon, and the only receiving weapon really capable of taking over a game. 

In the game earlier this season, the Patriots turned to nickelback Kyle Arrington to cover Hilton in man-to-man coverage for the majority of the game, usually with a safety rotated over the top. Arrington is the Patriots' quickest corner, but he can struggle with bigger receivers. Against the 5-9, 175-pound Hilton, that's the perfect matchup.

As long as Arrington wasn't getting toasted on the release, there was usually ample time to rotate a safety over the top of Hilton or bring linebackers across his path over the middle. 

Take this third-down play, for example, the Colts' first third down of the game. 

NFL Game Rewind

The Patriots show a single-high safety and press-man coverage, which would normally signal a big advantage for Hilton on a deep route. Even on 3rd-and-5, Luck isn't shy about flinging the ball downfield if a wide receiver gets open (for example, three of Donte Moncrief's four touchdowns this season came on long balls on 3rd-and-short/medium). 

NFL Game Rewind

But after the snap, the Patriots' safety immediately rotates over the top of Hilton, taking the fly route away. With Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne the other receivers on the play, the Patriots were confident in Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner's abilities to keep them from leaking open down the field. 

With this strategy, however, even Wayne was able to benefit down the field. On the very next drive, the Patriots tried to rotate safety Devin McCourty over to Hilton again leaving room for Wayne to pick up 46 yards on the other side. 

NFL Game Rewind

But that was the exception, rather than the rule, in this game. Neither Wayne or Nicks have been consistent deep threats this season, and they couldn't make enough plays to make the Patriots pay for the strategy. 

That may change this time around, namely because of rookie WR Donte Moncrief.

In that particular game, Moncrief played just 10 snaps. Over the last six weeks, he's averaged 45.8 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Over the course of the season, Pro Football Focus recorded Moncrief as having over 30 percent of his targets come on deep balls, the 10th-highest percentage among all receivers in the league.

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Ideally, the deep threat would give more room for Hilton, especially if the Colts can incorporate crossing routes with the two receivers in the possession game as well. 

It would be very much like Belichick to attack Hilton differently in this matchup. With Wayne slowing down significantly, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Patriots stick Revis on Hilton and forgo more safety help, instead leaving more deep help against Moncrief and Coby Fleener, who had seven catches for 144 yards in Week 11. 

Could Hilton handle consistent man coverage from the league's best one-on-one cornerback (apologies to Richard Sherman)? 

It's a valid question. But, Hilton did get pretty significant separation against Aqib Talib last week, although Talib struggles with small, quick receivers more than Revis does. 

However, where Revis can be beat is on the release at the line of scrimmage. Jordy Nelson was able to get Revis off balance just enough to get inside position and enough separation for this touchdown catch earlier this season:

Hilton is even quicker than Nelson, and his shifty release gave Talib problems on Sunday. If the Patriots put Revis in press coverage against Hilton without safety help, the Colts might be able to get a timely big play or two out of it, especially if they are moving Hilton around and into the slot to keep Revis guessing. 

It will be a difficult task, certainly. Belichick is one of the best game-planners the league has seen in the millennium, and he has one of the league's most talented secondaries to work with. 

But Pep Hamilton has done a pretty good job in his own right this season, and the Colts coaching staff has done a phenomenal job in the first two playoff wins. 

They'll need another gem against the Patriots to get the upset, and the chess match between Hilton and the Patriots defensive backs will be a central battle.