Tom Brady and the Patriots Present Much Tougher Challenge for the Colts Defense

If I would have told you two weeks ago that the Indianapolis Colts would win multiple playoff games and be among the playoff leaders in defense, you would have laughed at me. 

I wouldn't have been surprised to hear some choice name-calling either.

This, after all, was the Colts defense that was maddeningly inconsistent, the defense that faltered in all the biggest moments this season.

Against Denver, against Philadelphia, against Pittsburgh, against New England, against Dallas. 

Now, in the biggest of moments, the defense was going to step up and be the team's (arguably) biggest asset? Incredulity would have been the default reaction, and there's mountains of evidence backing that up. 

And yet, here we are. 

	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Pts/Gm	3rd/4th Conv.	1st Downs Allowed
Average	271.0	4.3	11.5	33.3%	16.5
Rank	2	1	1	1	1

The Colts have put up the best defensive performances of the playoffs. The last time I could say that with a straight face?

The 2006 Super Bowl run.

Head coach Chuck Pagano and defensive coordinator Greg Manusky have put together phenomenal game plans for both playoff games, and the Colts have executed extremely well.

Against the Bengals, the Colts stopped Cincinnati's vaunted rushing attack and forced Andy Dalton to make accurate throws against man coverage, which he couldn't do. Against the Broncos, the Colts tackled extremely well near the line of scrimmage and tried to force Peyton Manning to make accurate throws down the sidelines, which he couldn't do. 

The Colts offense has been efficient and effective, but it would be a travesty to overlook what the defense has done. 

Of course, they've had some help. 

The Bengals were the 18th-ranked offense by Football Outsiders' DVOA, and Andy Dalton wasn't scaring anybody in the playoffs with his 0-3 postseason record and 1-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Oh, and the Bengals missing top receiver A.J. Green (69 catches, 1,041 yards and six TDs in the regular season) and top tight end Jermaine Gresham (62 receptions, 460 yards, five TDs) didn't hurt either. 

The Broncos were one of the league's most efficient offenses over the course of the season, but had taken a noticeable step back over the final seven weeks of the season. The once-surgical Manning was reduced to relying on his teammates, and the effects were painful to watch.

Against the Colts and dealing with a quad injury, the legendary quarterback was reduced to a shadow of his former self, unable to hit his open receivers on the few opportunities that they had for big plays. Of course, his receiving corps wasn't at its best either, with Pro Bowl WR Demaryius Thomas dropping two screen passes with room for yards after the catch and failing to make much of an impact at all.

That's not to discredit the Colts' defensive accomplishments, but to acknowledge that the team has had some rather favorable circumstances defensively in these first two playoff games. Some of that circumstance is influenced by the Colts, certainly. Part of the reason Manning and Dalton didn't put up big numbers is because of an excellent job by the Colts secondary, for example. 

But that doesn't explain Manning missing open receivers down the sideline, or failing to run for a first down with 20 yards of open space in front of him. 

No, while the Colts' defensive performance is worthy of praise, it would be ignorant to claim that it came without help from the opponents. 

The New England Patriots present a much different challenge. 

This is the team that has put up 59, 43 and 42 points against the Colts over the last three years. They've averaged over 198 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in those three games, and have passed for over 8.4 net yards per attempt (NY/A) in those three games combined. For reference, Aaron Rodgers led the league in NY/A this season with 7.68, and only five other quarterbacks finished the season with an average over 7.00. 

If you don't like numbers, there's plenty of humiliating highlights in those three games as well, like LeGarrette Blount's game-icing 73-yard touchdown run in last year's playoffs or Rob Gronkowski's demoralizing 26-yard touchdown catch in Week 11's matchup.

Domination on the ground and efficiency through the air.

No matter what they've done offensively, the Patriots have had wild success against the new-era Colts. 

While Andrew Luck gets ragged for losing to New England so convincingly in three matchups, it's difficult to win games when you're allowing opposing offenses to do whatever they want. 

It's harsh, but it's true: The Patriots have embarrassed the Colts defense in all three matchups. If the Colts want to advance to a Super Bowl, that can't happen again. 

As good as Luck and the Colts' offense can be, they haven't displayed the consistency to keep up with that kind of production in a shoot-out, especially against the crafty Patriots and Bill Belichick. 

This matchup will include a number of keys for the Colts, and it starts on the ground. 

A big reason why the Patriots have been able to pass so effectively against the Colts is because of early success on the ground, which forced Indianapolis to stack the box and open up gaps on play action. A Patriots offense with options is incredibly dangerous, and the Colts know that. 

Just ask defensive end Ricky Jean Francois, per Mike Wells of ESPN.com: 

"We know what we have to do in this game. We have to stop their running game. It's a must. It's like the Denver game, if we didn't stop the running game, it's hard as hell to stop a team that can run and pass the ball."

Overall, the Colts have done a decent job at stopping the run as of late. They kept the Bengals run game stifled in the Wild Card Round, and kept the Broncos' running backs under 90 yards for the game. 

The Baltimore Ravens were able to limit the Patriots to just 14 rushing yards on Saturday, and while the Colts likely won't be able to hit that lofty goal, if they can limit the Patriots on early downs, they can force Tom Brady to push the ball down the field on third down. 

Much like they did against the Broncos, the Colts have to make Brady win this game by making deep throws down the sideline. 

On one hand, that sounds like a ridiculous statement. Make a future Hall of Fame quarterback win the game? This isn't Andy Dalton we're talking about. 

But it's true. Brady has never had a great deep ball, and it hasn't gotten better with age. The best option the Colts have is to force Brady to make accurate throws against man coverage down the field. Oh, and it just so happens that the Colts' strength is man coverage on the outside by its press cornerbacks. 

The middle of the field is the Patriots' preferred area to target, with Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. While Brandon LaFell has had his moments on the outside in New England, he pales in comparison to the aforementioned targets over the middle. When throwing the ball 10 yards down the field, Tom Brady's best "zone" is in the 10-19 yard range in the middle of the field, where Pro Football Focus (subscription required) gave him a positive-15.3 grade this season.

His worst zones? Deep and outside. 

When throwing the ball 20 yards down the field or more outside the numbers, Brady has a negative-1.9 grade on the left and a positive-0.9 grade on the right. Overall, he was accurate on just 33 percent of his deep passes this season, tied for 29th in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The best defenses take away an offense's strengths and force them to do things they aren't normally comfortable with. If the Colts can force the Patriots out of their comfort zone on Sunday, they might just have a chance at making the trip to Arizona. 

But make no mistake, that's a much bigger challenge than anything they've faced so far this January.