Colts Defensive Game Plan Stifles Broncos, but Can It Repeat in Foxborough?

On a day that will likely be looked back on as the beginning of the end for Peyton Manning's illustrious career, the Indianapolis Colts stormed into Mile High Stadium and held the Denver Broncos to just 176 passing yards. Manning—always a proponent of taking what the defense gives him—was gifted with a lot of open seam routes. He simply couldn't hit them.

I don't say this to take away from the defense that was played here. Cornerback Vontae Davis was, as he was all season, phenomenal. He very nearly had a pair of interceptions and did his part in limiting Broncos wideout Demaryius Thomas to four catches for 35 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets.

But in the grand game of rock-scissors-paper, the Colts were the right match for the Broncos. The Colts love to play press-man coverage and bring heat, which is a big deal when you play a quarterback who relies on timing and short-range accuracy.

Denver's natural response was to go to the deep game, but Manning simply couldn't hit the deep ball enough to get the Colts to respect it. Cornerback Greg Toler was beat by Broncos wideout Emmanuel Sanders on back-to-back plays in the second quarter, but Manning didn't stick the throws.

"Everybody in Vegas is mad right now," Colts safety Mike Adams told ESPN's Mike Wells after the game. KPRC-TV's Adam Wexler pointed out that this was the fewest yards on offense in Manning's time with the Broncos:

Another break that went Indianapolis' way was the play of Denver tight end Juilus Thomas.

Thomas had been limited the last month of the season with an ankle injury, and outside of a long wheel-route completion in the first quarter, he was essentially a non-factor. When these teams met up in Week 1, Thomas torched the Colts for 104 yards and three touchdowns, making linebacker D'Qwell Jackson look like a child who had wandered on the field in a Colts jersey.

This time around, Thomas didn't appear healthy enough to do much, and that limited the damage that weaker Colts pass defenders such as Jackson and safety LaRon Landry could do. Per Wells (via Mile High Report), Vontae Davis credited the win to utilizing Seattle's strategy of "taking Denver's receivers out of the game":

By the time this game got to the second quarter, all the Broncos could do was try to match strength on strength. And, much like it did against Seattle in Super Bowl XLVIII, all this resulted in was 3rd-and-long completions short of the sticks and a reliance on yards after the catch.

Non-Landry Colts do deserve a lot of credit for how they tackled in open space in this game, because none of Denver's skill players were really able to rack up broken tackles outside of running back C.J. Anderson. SI NFL praised the Colts secondary:

"

Colts secondary has been unreal tonight. Executed gameplan perfectly, rarely missed a tackle

— SI NFL (@si_nfl) January 12, 2015"

As we project this forward to next Sunday's game against New England, we immediately run into two problems. First: Rob Gronkowski is very healthy. Second: the New England Patriots have ran all over the Colts the last two times the teams have met, to the point where even Andrew Luck comebacks seem out of reach, which is saying something.

Week	Score	Rushing Yards Allowed	Rushing Touchdowns Allowed
2013 -- Divisional Round	L 43-22	234	6
2014 -- 11	L 42-20	246	4

The Colts run defense has clearly improved throughout the second half of the season—large loss to New England aside—and they held Denver back C.J. Anderson to just 91 yards on 19 carries, despite heavy usage of extra linemen, which is something the Patriots did to the Colts a lot in Week 11.

Time Frame	DVOA Allowed
Weeks 1-6	13.0%
Weeks 7-9	-40.9%
Patriots Game (11)	49.7%
Weeks 12-17	-23.0%

The basic elements of what the Colts did against the Broncos can work against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. If there's one thing you want to try to make quarterback Tom Brady do, it's hit the same sideline deep balls the Colts were able to force Manning to throw. It's no secret that this has become Brady's Achilles' heel as he's grown older.

But the Patriots offer some challenges that the Broncos were unable to provide at this point. From that standpoint, it's going to be fascinating to see if the Colts are able to adapt what they did in this game.

How would things have changed if Thomas were healthy? Would we have seen more double coverage on him? A corner, perhaps? The Colts have one of the few eraser corners in the league in Davis, but they can only place him once. 

And, then, of course, you have the running game. I don't even think the Patriots have a more talented running game than the Broncos, but they execute smartly, and head coach Bill Belichick seems to have Colts coach Chuck Pagano's number there. 

Assuming they can fade those things, the Colts defense could limit the Patriots just as they did the Broncos. Aggressive man coverage is the way winds seem to be shifting in the NFL, and as much as the Colts are hurt by the lack of a true stud edge-rusher, they have a puncher's chance to get pressure on every play as long as they can delay a quarterback's reads.

Rivers McCown is the AFC South Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.