2008 Preview: AFC East

By Derek Lofland. With the NFL draft in the archives and most of the free agency signings in the books, it's now time to preview the 2008 NFL divisions. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete.

There could be a few minor changes after some June 1 cuts. You could have a Ricky Williams-style retirement on the eve of camp. Brett Favre could decide to un-retire. Shaun Alexander and LaMont Jordan will likely find new teams to render their services to. However, with what we have in place as of today and unless there is a major injury, here is what I see taking place in 2008.

Some people will say it is way too early to start making predictions. My response to that would be that it is always too early to make predictions. How many people are going to hop off the Patriots bandwagon if they go 0-4 in preseason, barring a Tom Brady season ending injury? How many people are going to jump on the Dolphins bandwagon if they go 4-0?

If you think I am starting these too early leave a comment about what you think is going to change for your team between now and the start of the season, that I am not taking into account.

My plan is to focus on one division every week until the eight divisions in the NFL are completed. In my first installment I am starting with the AFC East which was by far the most lopsided division in 2007.

The Patriots won the division by nine games. While 16-0 helped create that lofty margin, the Bills didn’t do much to keep the division competitive, going 7-9 in second place. The Jets and Dolphins finished 4-12 and 1-15, respectively.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.

1 New England Patriots

2007 Record: 16-0

Points Scored: 589 (1st)

Points Allowed: 274 (4th)

Playoff Result: Lost Super Bowl

2008 Strength of Schedule: 99-157 (.387) (32nd in NFL)

Strengths: When a team completes the first 16-0 season in NFL history, there aren't going to be a lot of weaknesses to look at.  Bill Belichick has done a great job keeping the Patriots the most dominant team in the NFL since 2001. The strength of the team is their offense, and that offense broke NFL records that many thought were untouchable. Their 589 points scored in a single season demonstrates the ease with which this offense moved the ball.

The Patriots start with Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Tom Brady completed a historic NFL season, in which he won his first MVP award. The future Hall of Famer passed for 4,806 yards, 50 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and had a QB rating of 117.2. 

The major benefactors of those big numbers were Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Moss had a record setting 23 touchdown receptions to go along with 98 catches and 1,493 yards. Wes Welker had 112 catches for 1175 yards and eight touchdowns.

The Patriots also had a very good running game. While injuries prevented one back from accumulating all the numbers, the Patriots as a team ranked a respectable 13th in rushing yards. Laurence Maroney is their most promising runner and if he can stay healthy he should be able to eclipse 1,000 yards.

The Patriots didn’t punt the ball a lot, and scoring touchdowns were so frequent that we didn’t get to see much in the way of their special teams. All in all their return units and kicking game was fairly strong and should continue to be that way in 2008.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to call a defense that ranked fourth in the NFL a weakness. The Patriots defense would be the strength of most teams.  Consider that the defense was as good as the offense in 2007.  The Patriots D did a lot of good things in 2007.

They were very good at pressuring the quarterback and ranked second in the NFL at sacking the quarterback.  They also ranked sixth in passing yards allowed, which is amazing considering how far behind teams were the majority of the game. The Patriots were, however, very average at stopping the run.  While they ranked 10th in yards allowed, they ranked 26th in yards per carry at 4.4.

The defensive line is still in great shape. Wilfork is a beast and still in his 20s. Seymour and Warren are excellent on the ends. They also have good depth behind them. The biggest challenge for the Patriots on defense is overcoming age issues in the linebacker corps and replacing heavy losses in the secondary.

All of their starting linebackers are 30 years old or older.  Thomas is still an excellent player with a few prime years left. Seau is 39 years old and Bruschi will be 35 in a month. That was the big motivation for drafting Mayo with the 10th pick and Crable in the third round. Both will need to contribute immediately.

Samuel was a huge free agent loss in the secondary. They also lost Gay and Wilson.  Harrison returns, but is 36 years old and was susceptible to the pass last season. The Patriots signed CBs Fernando Bryant and Lewis Sanders to go along with safety Tank Williams. While those should be good players, it is hard to believe they will be better than what the Patriots lost. They also drafted Wheatley in the second round to provide depth.

Prediction: It will be interesting to see if the rest of the NFL has caught up to the Patriots in 2008. The Patriots were light years ahead of the rest of the league during the first 10 games of the season. As the season progressed, teams started to close the gap. Still, the Patriots went 18-0 before losing by a field goal in the Super Bowl. Losing by a field goal isn’t exactly being figured out.

The schedule doesn’t look very challenging. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in terms of last year’s winning percentage with a .387 winning percentage. They only play four playoff teams from 2007. That is the minimum for a first place team. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will pan out as the easiest schedule, but based on last season it doesn’t look very challenging.

The Patriots will still have one of the top five scoring offenses in the NFL and they will still have a respectable defense, but one that either barely makes the top 10 or is on the cusp. Even though as a whole they won’t be as good as 2007, they should still have more than enough weapons to run away with the division and earn a first round bye in the playoffs.

New England Patriots Record: 13-3 – AFC East Divisional Champion; AFC No. 2 Seed

2 New York Jets

2007 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 268 (25th)

Points Allowed: 355 (19th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule:  117-139 (.457) (25th in NFL)

Strengths: Eric Mangini had a hard fall from grace in 2007. After being considered one of the hottest coaching prospects last season, it is back to the drawing board in 2008. It is hard to look back to 2007, because the NY Jets have been so active in free agency.

They were not awful on defense, especially when it came to stopping the pass. The Jets ranked ninth in pass yards allowed and sixth in pass touchdowns allowed.  Keep in mind that part of that was due to the bad job they did stopping the run.

On offense, Thomas Jones did have the 1,000 yard season the Jets hoped he would have.  The bad news was that he did it on 3.6 yards per carry and had only one rushing touchdown the whole season. Cotchery had 82 receptions for 1,130 yards and two touchdowns.  Coles had 55 catches for 646 yards and six touchdowns while being limited by injuries for a good part of the season.  Both were impressive given their starting quarterback situation.

The Jets have some issues going in at quarterback this season. Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens will be the main signal callers for the Jets in 2008. When Pennington is healthy he can be one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He is extremely accurate and makes good decisions. Injuries have robbed him of a lot of games.

Clemens is the probable starter heading into camp, but by no means did he do so well in 2008 that the Jets wouldn’t contemplate going back to Pennington should Clemens prove ineffective.

The kicking game looks to be in good shape. Nugent and Graham both had solid seasons.  Neither is a major concern heading into this season.

Weaknesses: The NY Jets had weaknesses all over the board in 2007. They only won four games, and two of those were against the 1-15 Dolphins. They were run over by opposing running backs the whole season, giving up the 29th most rushing yards in the NFL. They struggled to control the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball. They finished 19th in rushing yards gained and 30th in rushing touchdowns scored.

It was a year to forget for a team coming off a wildcard birth and 10 wins in 2006. The Jets decided to fix this mess by hitting free agency as if there was no tomorrow.  They signed Alan Faneca and Damien Woody to upgrade the offensive line. They signed TE Bubba Franks and FB Tony Richardson to improve their blocking at those positions.  When those guys can stay healthy they are very effective in that regard.

They also drafted Dustin Keller to give them a receiving threat at tight end. Finally, the Jets guaranteed the final $11 million of Cole’s contract to keep him happy.

On defense they traded a third and fifth round pick for DT Kris Jenkins and signed OLB Calvin Pace away from the Arizona Cardinals. They drafted Vernon Gholston with the sixth pick. He was one of the premier pass rushers in the entire draft. They also drafted Dwight Lowery to add depth in the secondary.  Finally, they signed S Kerry Rhodes to a five year, $33.5 million extension ($20 million guaranteed) extension to keep him in the secondary.

What all this means is that the Jets were one of the busiest players in free agency and the first round of the draft. They could have as many as seven new starters or one-third of the starting positions.  That means that you really can’t look at last year’s results as many key contributors on this team are players that were not on the Jets’ roster in 2007.

Prediction: It’s hard for me to believe that the Jets aren’t going to improve on their record from 2007 given their strength of schedule and all the free agents they signed and high draft picks they made.  The question is whether that is going to be enough for them to get into the playoffs.

Playing the Dolphins and Bills twice can always help. They get the NFC West and AFC West meaning San Francisco, St. Louis, Oakland, and Kansas City. They will win more than four games in 2008. That said, I still am not in love with adding a bunch of high priced veteran free agents and throwing it together and hoping for greatness the following season. History is full of teams that crashed and burned using that approach.

It is going to take this team some time to gel and possibly reap longterm benefits. Given their schedule and improvement in talent, I am looking for them to get to 7-9 or possibly 8-8 this season.

NY Jets’ Record: 7-9 – AFC East Second place; No Playoffs

3 Buffalo Bills

2007 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 252 (30th)

Points Allowed: 354 (18th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 115-141 (.449) (27th in NFL)

Strengths: Dick Jauron has done a very good job with this squad since being hired by the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills were your classic effort team in 2008. Despite ranking 30th in yards gained and 31st in yards allowed, they were able to make enough plays to win some games.

Critics will point to their 7-9 record as being the result of four combined wins over the Dolphins and Jets.  Still, other than the Patriots games, Jaguars, and Steelers the Bills played most of their schedule fairly competitively. They were beaten by the Dallas Cowboys in the game’s closing seconds.  They beat a playoff team in Washington. This is a team that was able to give teams fits with their hustle and effort.

The Bills have some quality pieces as well. Lee Evans could be a great receiver if he could get the right quarterback situation. Jauron had a very good rookie campaign and is expected to do big things in year three. Fred Jackson was a quality back up at RB.  Edwards played some good minutes and will be competing with Losman for the starting job.  Edwards should be the favorite to earn the starting nod. 

On defense Aaron Schobel is always considered one of the leagues better defensive ends. The kicking game is pretty solid.  Rian Lindell was 24-for-27 in 2007.  Brian Moorman had grossed as high as 45.7 in 2005 was down to 40.8 in 2007.  Roscoe Parish is a promising WR/return man entering his fourth year in the league.

Weaknesses: While the Bills had a nice season, they need to get more talented players if they want to take the next jump. They were anemic on offense and the defense was not good enough to carry the team. The Bills did a nice job of upgrading their defense in the offseason. 

Marcus Stroud is a nice addition to the defensive line. They also added Spencer Johnson to shore up the DT position. The Bills drafted DE Chris Ellis to improve the defensive line. They signed Kawika Mitchell away from the World Champion NY Giants. He should help the linebacker spot.

Finally, the Bills signed William James and drafted Leodis McKelvin and Reggie Corner to improve the secondary.  If these moves pan out, the Bills defense will be a much better unit in 2008.

However, the Bills didn’t completely ignore the offense. They drafted wide out James Hardy out of Indiana in the second round. He should make a nice compliment to established starter Lee Evans. The Bills are gambling that their young offensive starters will continue to progress and will be aided by a much stronger defense that will keep them in most games.

Prediction: The Bills did make several additions that should improve this team.  However, I do not believe they have caught up to the Patriots yet and the NY Jets were as active as any team in the league in free agency.  The Dolphins have also been busy.  I don’t expect the Bills to go 4-2 in their division in 2008.

The Bills do have some winnable out-of-division games in the Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, and Rams.  I expect the Bills to be right around 7-9 or 8-8 in 2008.  If the Bills finished slightly ahead of the NY Jets, that would not surprise me.  If the Bills ended up tied or slightly behind the Jets, that too would not surprise me. 

The bottom line is that I think both the Bills and the Jets are both teams hovering around .500 and both have a ways to go before entering the playoff discussion in the very deep and talented AFC.

Buffalo Bills Record: 7-9 – AFC East Third Place; No Playoffs

4 Miami Dolphins

2007 Record: 1-15

Points Scored: 267 (26th)

Points Allowed: 437 (30th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 119-137 (.465) (22nd in NFL)

Strengths: The Dolphins had been flirting with contention in 2005 and were a trendy playoff pick in 2006.  They finished that season 6-10 and by 2007 the bottom fell out and they went 1-15, with their sole win coming over the 5-11 Baltimore Ravens in OT.

The Dolphins basically played two seasons in 2007.  In their first eight games they put up points with Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers, but their defense was nowhere to be found. The Patriots, Cowboys, Browns, and other high-powered offenses torched them on a week-to-week basis.  They gave up 244 points in their first eight games, but scored a respectable 166 points.

The defense made good strides in the second half as they gave up only 193 points in that period.  By that time Ronnie Brown was gone for the year, Trent Green was on IR, and Chambers was in San Diego. The offense only scored 101 points in their last eight games and the Dolphins were officially in disaster. They lost their first 13 games, before beating the Ravens in their 14th game. It would be their only victory of the season.

There are no easy answers in Miami.  First year Head Coach Tony Sparano is inheriting one gigantic mess. They have a blossoming star running back coming back from knee surgery. They do not have a quality starting quarterback in place. They are young and unproven at wide receiver. The offensive line is a mess.

On defense, they are an older team. Joey Porter and Jason Taylor are proven commodities in the league, but nearing the end of their great careers.  Zack Thomas is no longer with the team. They need to start rebuilding the defensive line and secondary.

The special teams could use improvement in all areas. That is why the Dolphins hired “The Tuna.” Bill Parcells has been entrusted with the difficult task of putting the Dolphins back together again.  He is starting at the bottom and working his way up.

Weaknesses: Here is what the Dolphins did this offseason to start improving the team. Parcells made wholesale changes to the roster by getting rid of older and non-productive players. 

He brought in Josh McCown and drafted Chad Henne to go along with Beck to give them a better QB situation.  He resisted drafting McFadden to keep Brown and improve the offensive line instead. The Dolphins singed Justin Smiley to a nice contract and drafted Jake Long with the first pick to play tackle.  He is already signed.

They also drafted Shawn Murphy to play guard.  They then acquired tight end Anthony Fasano in a trade from the Cowboys and signed Earnest Wilford and Tab Perry to improve the receiving corps. There are going to be a lot of new faces for the Dolphins on offense.

The same is going to be true on defense. The Dolphins may not win a lot of games, but they aren’t going to lose with the same cast of characters. They signed safeties Chris Crocker and Keith Davis. They aren’t big names, but should improve that position. 

They added Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor to the linebacker corps. They traded for Jason Ferguson and signed Randy Starks to improve the defensive tackle spot. They also drafted Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford to add to the defensive end position. Those new faces should go well with Jason Taylor and Joey Porter.

The Dolphins are in the midst of a full rebuilding effort. There will be many new and unfamiliar faces in the lineup in 2008 as the Dolphins try to put the embarrassment of a 1-15 campaign behind them.

Prediction: The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots as we currently know them were not built in one day. It took years of good drafts, solid free agency, and developing young players to turn those franchises into the powerhouses they are today. The Dolphins aren’t going to fix this problem overnight.  Bill Parcells is well aware of that. 

He did an excellent job of bringing in players and trying to change the culture of this team. It will be interesting to see if the riff between Jason Taylor and Parcells is reparable once this team gets to playing football.  Evidently, Bill Parcells is not a fan of “Dancing with the Stars.”

The Dolphins are still looking at being the fourth best team in this division because of the deep gap created last year. They may be able to steal a game or two against either the Jets or Bills. The Chiefs, Raiders, 49ers, and Rams offer chances for victory. They play the Ravens and Texans, which will also give them a chance to compete. 

It isn’t going to be the frustration of 2007, but it isn’t going to be very pretty either.  I look for the Dolphins to win four more games, but still shore up the bottom of the AFC East.

Miami Dolphins Record:  5-11 – AFC Fourth Place; No Playoffs

Derek Lofland is the NFL senior director of Fantasy Football Maniaxs.