Should Nikola Mirotic Remain in Chicago Bulls' Starting Lineup Long-Term?
At the very least, the Chicago Bulls have discovered they have an emergency option at the small forward spot in rookie Nikola Mirotic.
But with the European import continuing to impress in the absence of Mike Dunleavy (ankle), the Bulls have to wonder whether they have something far greater than that. As good as Mirotic has looked as a substitute small forward, he might fare even better as a long-term starter there.
It all started out of desperation, which history has shown to be a fertile source of innovation.
Missing both Dunleavy and Jimmy Butler (bereavement), the Bulls were in bad shape on the wings entering their Jan. 3 tilt with the Boston Celtics. Rookie Doug McDermott was (and is) still working his way back from knee surgery, and sophomore Tony Snell had done little to instill any confidence that he could fill more than a minimal role.
Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau had no great options, or at least that's what he thought. He had recently begun experimenting with the 6'10" Mirotic at the 3 but hadn't particularly liked what he'd seen.
"It's hard for him to pick up two positions right now," Thibodeau said on Jan. 1, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "When he does play (small forward), it limits what you can do. It's a very small package of what we're using."
That might have been the initial plan, but external forces had tied Thibodeau's hands. Not only did he roll with Mirotic at small forward, but he gave the freshman his first career start.
And in nearly 38 minutes of action, Mirotic delivered. While he struggled with his shot (2-for-10 from the field, 1-for-6 from deep), he tallied 10 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two steals. He was Chicago's only starter with a positive plus-minus differential (plus-two).
Two nights later, it was a similar story when the Houston Rockets visited the Windy City. With Butler back, Mirotic's night began on the bench, but he saw more than 27 minutes of floor time and spent a sizable chunk of them back at the 3. This time, his shot was falling (7-for-12), and he stuffed his stat sheet with 17 points, eight boards, two blocks, one assist and a vicious right-hand hammer.
On the strength of that outburst, Mirotic the small forward earned a seal of approval from at least one Bulls observer.
"Nikola Mirotic showed he can handle even starting at small forward—though he didn’t—proving a mismatch on offense and making defensive plays including a fourth-quarter block on Corey Brewer," wrote Bulls.com's Sam Smith.
More importantly, Mirotic's back-to-back showings had dramatically changed Thibodeau's assessment.
"Playing two positions, particularly when it’s small and big, that’s quite a challenge, and he’s handled that part extremely well," said Thibodeau, per Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. "It hasn’t really surprised me because of how quickly he’s picked up other things."
Granted, there's a big difference between manning a position in spot duty and taking it over full-time. And there probably isn't enough data available yet to make a firm conclusion on Mirotic's ability to do the latter.
There are, however, hints that this is at least an option worth exploring for Chicago.
If one was to oversimplify the offensive roles of both Mirotic and Dunleavy, each would fall into the category of "shooter."
Dunleavy has been making his living beyond the arc for years. Nearly 32 percent of his career made field goals are triples, and that number has been more than 41 percent during his season-plus with Chicago. Mirotic has drawn an even heavier percentage of his offense from the perimeter. Nearly half of his field-goal attempts (49.5 percent) and 43.2 percent of his makes are threes.
Dunleavy's three-point cannon is an invaluable weapon for this offense. The mere threat of his shooting is enough to create wider driving lanes for Butler and Derrick Rose and more space on the block for Pau Gasol.
But it's not as if defenses could sleep on Mirotic's three-point attack. He's been a 38.0 percent shooter from distance on the season and a 42.6 percent marksman when he's played 20 or more minutes.
So moving from Dunleavy to Mirotic wouldn't strip the small forward spot of its biggest offensive strength. The switch would also give Chicago another crafty scorer in the post and a player capable of getting to the foul line (.480 free-throw rate to Dunleavy's .191).
Offensively, there are some obvious perks in replacing Dunleavy's one-dimensional game with Mirotic's more well-rounded skill set. But that end of the floor wasn't the one that had Mirotic worried about making the move.
"The big challenge for me was playing defense. I was not sure if I could do that," Mirotic said, per Johnson. "I think it was not bad the last two games. Of course I make a lot of mistakes, but my teammates helped me."
Mirotic isn't the fleetest of foot, so there might be some hesitations about deploying him at the same position filled by athletic marvels like Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard. But then again, it's not as if anyone has ever confused Dunleavy for an Olympic sprinter.
Measuring defense in numbers is an inexact science, but the available tools all point to Mirotic making a more positive impact on that side of the ball. He has a lower defensive rating (100 to 107) and a higher defensive real plus-minus (2.57 to 0.84) than Dunleavy, per ESPN.com.
The Bulls didn't have a stopper in Dunleavy, and they won't need Mirotic to be one. With Butler locking down the perimeter and Gasol and Noah anchoring the interior, Chicago can afford to have a relatively weaker link out on the wing.
With Mirotic in the starting lineup, Chicago would have three players standing 6'10" or taller. Even if the perimeter experienced a few more leaks, penetrators would still have to deal with this formidable frontcourt. Few bigs are capable of covering as much ground as Noah, and Gasol is one of the league's better shot-blockers (2.3 per game).
Gasol, who played (and won) with a similarly sized frontcourt with Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom on the Los Angeles Lakers, said he wouldn't mind adding the extra length that Mirotic can provide, per Mike McGraw of the Daily Herald:
"Obviously with Niko at the three, it give us more size, more length, which I like a lot. Even though we might lose a little quickness and speed at times, you cover ground, you put bodies on people, you secure rebounds. Those are key factors for me.
So I like what I see. I like always having size. I think size makes a huge difference in the game. I couldn't be happier with our frontcourt and overall team.
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From a statistical standpoint, the numbers all seem to favor Mirotic getting burn with the starting group.
It's hard to say if the sample size is too small to maintain any value, but the little bit that's out there paints Chicago as solid with Dunleavy—and scarily good with Mirotic.
| Butler-Dunleavy-Rose | 21 | 407 | 105.0 | 103.1 | 1.9 |
| Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah | 23 | 443 | 104.0 | 104.0 | 0.0 |
| Butler-Mirotic-Rose | 17 | 76 | 108.0 | 91.5 | 16.4 |
| Gasol-Mirotic-Noah | 2 | 26 | 93.7 | 87.4 | 6.3 |
To contextualize those numbers, the Bulls are tied for sixth with a net efficiency rating of plus-5.2 points per 100 possessions. The Golden State Warriors lead all teams with a plus-12.6, while the shamelessly tanking Philadelphia 76ers bring up the rear at minus-12.6.
In 276 minutes together, Chicago's starting five of Butler, Gasol, Dunleavy, Noah and Rose has a plus-3.9 net rating. That's not a bad mark, but it falls below what the Bulls do overall.
Chicago has had one five-minute glimpse at the Butler-Gasol-Mirotic-Noah-Rose lineup. In those five minutes, the Bulls racked up 19 points and allowed five to their opponents. Those numbers don't mean anything other than that Chicago needs to give this a longer look.
This isn't a knock on Dunleavy, but rather an opinion that he could have a relatively equal impact if he played 30 minutes a night with the starters or 25 per game off the bench. If the Bulls made the move, it shouldn't affect Dunleavy much at all.
But it just might blow the top off Mirotic's rising ceiling and provided a needed lift on Chicago's perimeter, as Bleacher Report's Sean Highkin explained:
"If Mirotic truly is a viable wing option for the Bulls, it helps to solve not one but two problems with their depth. For one, playing Mirotic at small forward takes him out of the race for minutes with Gasol, Noah and Gibson, which would be a losing battle for him. Thibodeau loves veterans, and all three of those players have much longer and more impressive track records than Mirotic.
The other issue solved by Mirotic’s newfound versatility is Chicago's lack of perimeter depth.
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The Bulls don't have many consistent perimeter contributors outside of their starters. Aaron Brooks has provided a spark but can't help on the wing. Chicago could use Dunleavy's shooting touch there, which would also help ease McDermott back into the rotation whenever he's healed.
Between Gasol, Noah and Taj Gibson, the Bulls are covered on the interior. Mirotic could still see some minutes as a stretch 4, but giving him a starting small forward gig would help the recently named Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month see more than the 18.6 minutes per game he's been getting.
Chicago hasn't seen enough to know whether a full-time promotion is in line for Mirotic, but it has already caught snippets of the type of impact it could make. If his production holds up as the sample size grows, the Bulls should turn this short-term experiment into a long-term solution.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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