Bengals vs. Colts: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

On Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts will host a playoff game for the second consecutive year.

Last season the Colts came back to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in a 45-44 thriller, picking up the first playoff win in the Ryan Grigson/Chuck Pagano/Andrew Luck era. This year the Colts will host the Cincinnati Bengals and hope that another win is on its way. 

The two teams met earlier this season, when the Colts shut out Cincinnati in a surprising 27-0 blowout. While the October meeting won't repeat itself this time around, it was a sign of the two teams' strengths and weaknesses. The Colts match up well with Cincinnati, and everything went right in that Week 7 win. 

They'll need more than a little luck to replicate that outcome, but the Colts definitely have the talent to win at home, despite strangely emphatic doubts from some national media members. 

How can the Colts ensure another playoff win for Luck and his crew? Here are the biggest factors they'll be focusing on during the Sunday afternoon matchup.

Offense: Run, Run, Run the Ball

The Colts have been carried by their passing offense throughout the season. Having another game of that wouldn't surprise anybody at this point. 

But if the team can't figure out how to add some dynamic rushing game against the Bengals, who have struggled to defend the run effectively all year, then they likely won't be able to run the ball against anybody in the playoffs (if they move on at all). 

Name	Stat	Ranking
PFF Grade	-22.3	23
DVOA	1.3%	28
EPA	6.8	22
Total Yards Allowed	1861	20
Yards Per Carry	4.2	18

When the Colts can run the ball, they are a much more dangerous offense. That's not to say that they need to force the run game. The Colts are never going to be a team that runs more than it passes, or anywhere close to an even split. But if they can average over four yards a carry and force the defense to respect the ground game, it will open things up in the play-action game. 

During the back half of the season, opponents stopped respecting the Colts run game and played more two-deep safety looks, which cut down on the Colts' big plays in the passing game. 

The Colts have built the offense around exploiting secondaries for explosive gains in the passing game, so the ensuing struggles have been difficult to watch. One way to combat that would be to give Dan Herron the chance to rack up at least 60 yards on the ground and force Cincinnati to pay attention to the backfield. 

Offense: Keep Andrew Luck Upright

The Cincinnati defense is incredibly skilled and has a variety of talent pervading each possession, but if it has one weakness, it is the lack of pass-rushing ability. 

Only the Oakland Raiders had a worse Adjusted Sack Rate, according to Football Outsiders, and the Bengals consistently struggled to make life difficult for the opposing quarterback. This works out very well for the Colts, whose passing game relies on long-developing plays for its most important contributions. 

If Luck has time to sit back and survey the field, he is extremely dangerous, especially early in the game as the Colts try to establish an early lead. 

When Luck has struggled, and the Colts offense along with him, it's been because he gets early pressure that forces him to rush his reads. Cincinnati is a team that the Colts should be able to keep at bay in that department, even with right tackle Gosder Cherilus on the injured reserve list. 

Defense: Make Cincinnati One-Dimensional

While the Colts are one of the least balanced offenses in the league, Cincinnati is one that relies heavily on the running game and the effect it has in opening passing lanes. Of quarterbacks that started 16 games, Dalton's 523 dropbacks were the fewest in the league. 

Meanwhile, you have rookie halfback Jeremy Hill and second-year utility back Giovani Bernard who combined to average nearly 28 attempts per game. Hill was the go-to back down the stretch, receiving 25, 22 and 23 carries, respectively, in the final three games and picking up 395 total rushing yards.

Slowing down, if not stopping, Hill and the Bengals rushing game is the key to stopping Cincinnati. The Colts held the two backs to just 11 carries for 32 yards in Week 7, but the Bengals are utilizing much more misdirection lately to force opposing linebackers into difficult spots. The Colts linebackers, both inside and outside, will need to be disciplined to keep the Bengals running backs from creating big plays.

The Colts need to shut down Hill and Bernard early and make the Bengals become one-dimensional. If they can jump out to an early lead, they can force Andy Dalton to beat them, which is a matchup they will win most of the time. 

Defense: Force Andy Dalton's Mistakes

If the Colts get ahead, they can force the Bengals into passing situations and tee off on Dalton with Greg Manusky's blitzes and stunts. Manusky has done a great job of manufacturing pass rush despite having little individual pass-rushing talent this year. 

In Week 7, the Colts made Dalton uncomfortable from the first series on, and he was never able to get into a rhythm. 

When pressured, Dalton has been very mistake-prone this season. When under pressure, Dalton has thrown eight interceptions, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Only two quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions under duress. 

The Colts didn't force an interception in the Week 7 meeting, but Dalton was just 2-of-9 for 35 yards when under pressure in that game. Expecting the Colts to dominate the other areas of the game like they did in the first meeting would be a little much, so if the Colts can get a turnover or two to give the offense short fields, it could go a long way in establishing a victory. 

Dalton has been particularly turnover-prone in the playoffs over the last four years. The Colts will be hoping to force another performance in line with Dalton's previous playoff failures, and the best way to do that is by making him uncomfortable in the pocket.