Despite Recent Struggles, Don't Bet Against Colts in Wild Card Round

With the Pittsburgh Steelers' 27-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night, the Indianapolis Colts' home playoff game was set. 

The Colts will host the Bengals on Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET, the second consecutive year Indianapolis will host a playoff game in the Wild Card Round. 

Unfortunately, despite hosting a playoff game and having shut out the Bengals in a 27-0 embarrassment earlier this season, the Colts aren't being heavily favored by analysts going into the Wild Card Round. 

ESPN's Matt Williamson, for example, said he would be "picking big against the Colts no matter what." Brian Billick of NFL.com called the Colts the most likely to be one-and-done. SB Nation's Matt Ufford and Ryan Nanni both picked the Bengals. 

You could find other analysts picking Indianapolis, but the utter certainty with which analysts like Williamson and Billick speak about the Colts' downfall is mind-boggling to me. 

There are a number of reasons to pick against the Colts, sure: 

• The team has struggled with turnovers all season, with its 31 total turnovers tying for the third-highest team total in the league. The turnover differential of negative five is the worst among the 12 playoff teams. 
• The once-dominant Colts offense struggled against the Browns and Texans late in the season before two meaningless road games in Dallas and Tennessee. Regardless of opponent, the Colts' offense hasn't looked right in a month.
• While the Colts defense has a few dominating performances on its resume, it has utterly failed against top competition, allowing each team with a top quarterback to go up big early. Most teams struggle against the likes of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger, but the Colts allowed 166 points in those four games, an average of over 41 points per game. 
• The Colts offensive line has been a mess recently, with injuries ravaging a unit that was at least passable for most of the year. The offensive line is the offense's biggest weakness, and a major breakdown could seriously jeopardize the Colts' chances. 

But the Colts have an argument of their own, too, and it starts with their opponent in the Wild Card Round. 

The Bengals are a fantastic matchup for the Colts on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Bengals have major issues in pass rush and run defense. 

During their 27-0 win over the Bengals in Week 7, the Colts were able to get the run game going, one of the few times that's happened all season. The team's 171 total rushing yards was the second-highest total all season, and Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Dan Herron each averaged over 5.0 yards per carry. The Colts rushing game has been toothless for weeks, but the Bengals were one of the few teams where they had some success on the ground. 

Then there's quarterback Andrew Luck, who with more time in the pocket could destroy the Bengals secondary. Luck has had a bit of a down month, but he has passed the eye test over the last two weeks and seems to be getting back on track. 

The Bengals had no answer for T.Y. Hilton in the two teams' first meeting, and the Colts have been doing an excellent job since then of getting the tight ends involved as well. If the Colts give Luck a clean pocket, there will certainly be big-play opportunities. 

When comparing Luck and the passing offense to Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, the difference is even more stark. 

Player	Comp. %	Passing Yards	Touchdowns	DYAR	EPA
Andy Dalton	64.1%	3398	19	232	39.5
Andrew Luck	61.7%	4761	40	885	110.0

Dalton is the worst quarterback in the AFC side of the playoffs, which is why the Colts were extremely fortuitous in their draw. Not only is he objectively the easiest quarterback to game-plan for, but his struggles match the Colts' defensive strength completely. 

Throughout the regular season, the Colts defense took advantage of young and bad quarterbacks by blitzing them constantly, getting them frazzled and forcing errant decisions. Dalton fell into that trap perfectly in Week 7, and while he likely won't completely fall apart like he did in that particular game, expecting him to put the Bengals on his back seems foolish to say the least. 

The Colts defense is low on individual pass-rushers, but the team has been able to manufacture pass rush with stunts and blitzes all year. A good quarterback can exploit that (see the Colts' five losses), but Dalton was unable to in the two teams' previous matchup. Even if A.J. Green plays this time around, Dalton at the helm makes the Bengals' passing game much less intimidating than it could be. 

The Colts have established themselves with 11 wins this season, regardless of what division they play in. 

Analysts and media want to play the schedule game, discrediting the Colts because of an easy schedule that included playing the Jaguars and Titans each twice. But that's a dangerous game to start playing. 

Sure, the Colts didn't fair all that well against playoff teams. But they also beat every single team that they were supposed to beat all season, including going 6-0 in the division with dominating performances against Tennessee and Jacksonville. People see one-score wins over the Texans and Browns in the last month of the season and start panicking, ignoring the fact that the Steelers and Bengals each lost to Cleveland while the Ravens lost to Houston. 

Shoot, the Steelers also lost to teams like the Jets, Buccaneers and Saints this season, and beat the Jaguars and Titans (those terrible AFC South teams) by a combined 11 points. 

The Colts disappointed against the Patriots and Steelers in embarrassing fashion but overall they went 4-5 against teams with a record of .500 or better, which is fairly reasonable. 

Could the Bengals come into Indianapolis and blow the Colts out of the water? Sure, although not likely. Could the Colts repeat the shut-out performance from Week 7? Yes, although also not likely. 

It's the NFL, anything can happen. 

But given the teams' history this season and an extremely favorable QB matchup, it's hard to bet against the Colts and their homefield advantage in the Wild Card Round. 

It seems like we should have learned that by now.