Packers Run Game Stepping Up When Needed Most
The shock of the final weekend of the regular season may have come in the NFC North title match between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. At the time of last week's game-plan piece the story of the 2014 Packers season had been so: Against top run defenses, their offense had stalled, and they had their worst games of the year.
"Studying the previous games that Green Bay has played, something becomes apparent. Despite their hyper-productive offense, strong defensive lines seem to stall the squad.
When investigating for defensive line production, one must search out metrics for run-stopping, as that's where they do most of their impact. According to Pro Football Focus (Subscription,) the Packers have faced three top-10 run defenses in the New York Jets, the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills.
In those games, Green Bay has averaged 17 points per match on offense, 13 points lower than their season average. They also lost two of those games on the road and narrowly escaped the Jets at home. If they play to their expected projection, the game will be much closer than Vegas' guess of a nine-point game, according to Odds Shark.
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Not only was the nine-point line covered in a 30-20 Green Bay victory, but the manner of which the Packers played offensively was a surprise given the context of their previous production against stout run defenses.
En route to earning a first-round bye, the team, according to ESPN Wisconsin's Rob Demovsky, was only the second in 2014 to net 100 yards on the ground against the Lions.
"#Packers just the second team to rush for more than 100 yards vs. the Lions this year.
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) December 28, 2014"
As an individual, 2013 Rookie of the Year Eddie Lacy was the first running back to crack the 100-yard mark against them on the year. In their first matchup of the season, he carried the ball 11 times for 36 yards.
The performance of Lacy and Co. was in part due to two long runs early in the game. To see how exactly the Packers were able to gash the Lions on those two carries, you need to visit the coaches tape.
The first explosive run occurred on the Packers' first play of the game offensively. They came out in a pistol ACE look in 11 personnel, meaning one running back and one tight end. The bread and butter of this squad is 11 personnel.
To combat the look, Detroit played a typical nickel defense. Instead of adding another man into the box, it kept two-high safeties. This gave the Packers a lean in the run game. With only six box defenders against six potential blockers, the numbers game was in favor of Lacy.
The reason the Lions likely gave Lacy this look was their fear of the ability of Aaron Rodgers and his receivers. Jordy Nelson made the Pro Bowl this season; Randall Cobb is slated to be a top-tier free agent; and Davante Adams is having the best rookie season of any Packers receiver in the Mike McCarthy era.
That and their typically elite run defense are why one would guess they'd give a Cover 2 look pre-snap.
From the end-zone camera, one can get a good look of the blocking assignments on the play. It's a fairly standard man-to-man run. With the ball going to the right, the offensive line takes the defender over it or in the gap to the right of it—other than left tackle David Bakhtiari, who is sealing the back side.
That leaves right tackle Bryan Bulaga and center Corey Linsley free to work to the second level and take the linebackers in space. Every man in the box is accounted for on this play, meaning a cornerback or safety should have to make this tackle.
The defensive-assignment look gives a good read on why a six-man box is troublesome. From left to right, the Lions are playing a 9-technique, a 3-technique, a 1-technique and a 7-technique on the defensive line. In base defense, most 4-3 teams would run a 7-3-1-7 look. The defensive end, the 9-technique, who is on the outside shoulder of the tight end, would line up on his inside shoulder in that situation.
A linebacker would then drop down near the line of scrimmage and line up on the outside shoulder of the tight end. That linebacker is taken off the field for a cornerback when the team goes from base to nickel defense. This is where Detroit gets in trouble.
Highlighted are the gap assignments the front-six players have. There are seven gaps. DeAndre Levy, the Lions' top linebacker, has to cover two gaps to make up for the scheme. He has to both play the play-side A-gap between the center and guard and the play-side C-gap between the tight end and right tackle.
When Lacy gets the ball, Levy takes the play-side C-gap, as it's an outside run. The Packers offensive line is doing fairly solid at this point. Ndamukong Suh is getting some depth on T.J. Lang, the Green Bay right guard, but that's expected for an elite defensive lineman.
Bulaga is working his way to engage Levy at the second level, and Linsley, after chipping on his way to his target, is getting to the other linebacker. Linsley's little chip secured the 1-technique being blocked, making the cutback lane for Lacy wider.
Lacy made the correct read, taking the cutback lane after seeing Levy take on the right side of the line, the 9-technique setting the edge and Suh getting into the backfield.
Sticking his foot in the dirt, Lacy burst into space free to move into the secondary.
From an overhead look, he had plenty of grass to navigate. Three defensive backs had run responsibilities on the play: The two safeties and the slot corner.
The safety at the bottom of the screen was out of position to make the tackle, as he took the bait on Lacy's initial outside course. The slot corner at the top of the screen was out of position because of his coverage responsibility on the far side of the field.
Because of this, all those defensive backs could do was close in the running lane on Lacy, forcing him to scamper straight to the second safety, who was running downhill 15 yards off the ball-carrier.
Contact was first made at the 45-yard line, but Lacy didn't go down.
Green Bay's strategy had worked. The Lions defense was petrified of the possibility of Rodgers' MVP-caliber arm, giving the Packers an edge in the numbers game. From there, if Lacy could read his blockers, he'd be looking to be brought down by a member of the Detroit secondary. Lacy against a defensive back eight to seven yards deep is a matchup McCarthy would take every play if given to him.
Lacy finally came down after driving a pile for more than 10 yards for a 22-yard gain. In total, he gained 14 yards after contact.
Later on in the game, the Lions gave the Packers the same look off the same formation and personnel. The only difference between the two plays was which side of the field was the strong side. In this case, the tight end lined up to the left.
Again, Levy had to make a read to cover one of two gaps. This time, it was the left A-gap or the right B-gap.
Green Bay ran an outside zone play on this snap. Recognizing the defense, it was run to the weak side of the formation. The interior players on offense ran double-teams on their men at the line of scrimmage then worked to the two linebackers based on how the double-teams were received.
At the handoff, the play looked like more of the same nightmare for the Lions. Josh Sitton, the left guard, and Linsley were working off their double-teams. Everyone else had initiated contact, and James Starks, the second back in Green Bay's stable, was reading Levy's movement.
When Levy took the A-gap, Starks blew through the B-gap, sprinting for yardage. No one had a shot on him within 10 yards.
After making one guy miss in space, he was finally brought down for a gain of 21 yards, just one yard shy of tying Lacy's effort for the longest in the match.
Overall, the approach Green Bay's running game took to slash through the Lions defense for these two runs was simple. The Packers stretched out the defense with three legitimately threatening wideouts and a tight end who could also contribute in the passing game. From there, against two-high looks, they'd have an advantage of gaps for defenders to cover compared to the number of Detroit run-first defenders.
Lacy is in the top 11 percent of running backs in weight, at least according to his combine numbers, via Mock Draftable. Starks is in the top 3 percent in height for a running back. Neither of those backs is even average-sized, so forcing typically smaller defensive backs to tackle either one yards downfield after he's sustained speed is a tall task.
All an offense can do is take what it's given. With so many weapons across the board, defenses essentially have to pick their poison against the Packers.
Netting its first decisive win against a top-10 run defense isn't a terrible way for Green Bay to cap off 2014. Heading into the playoffs with a week off, the positive momentum gained through the divisional title game is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Packers.
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