Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Breaking Down Green Bay's Game Plan
It's finally coming to an end. After 16 weeks of professional football, the regular season is eight games from being over.
The Green Bay Packers opened up the year with optimism, playing the most recent Super Bowl champions on their home turf in Seattle. After taking that 36-16 road defeat, some momentum was lost.
Over the next two weeks, the Packers nearly lost at home to the New York Jets and were beaten by 12 in Detroit against the Lions, their divisional foe. It's not a stretch to say Green Bay could have easily started the season with a mark of 0-3.
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Since their early struggles, though, the Packers have rattled off win after win. In the 10 games after their 1-2 start, they managed to lose only once, a prime-time game in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, a match which featured star quarterback Aaron Rodgers sustaining a hamstring injury.
And despite struggling against Buffalo last week, the team rebounded against the then-2-12 Buccaneers, clinching a spot for the squad in the playoffs.
Now, currently in a tie with the Lions for first place in the NFC North, their next match decides if they'll earn a bye week in the postseason. If they win, the Packers get at least the second seed in the NFC, meaning they'll have a week off. There are also scenarios in which Green Bay could reach the top seed, giving them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
If the team loses to Detroit, they are locked into the sixth seed, and in all likelihood would play the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round, according to SideLion Report, a Sports Illustrated-owned Lions site.
"Forget the wordy scenarios, here is an easy visual cheat sheet for NFC seeding based on wk 17 http://t.co/YAjdrm7tng pic.twitter.com/QOteaJnO2l
— SideLion Report (@SideLionReport) December 23, 2014"
Offensive Key: Balance the Defense with Quick Passes
When looking at the matchup of these two teams on paper, the first thing that stands out is the strength-on-strength battle the Packers offense and Lions defense have ahead of them.
According to Football Outsiders' advanced metric tabbed "DVOA," Detroit has the best defense in the NFL. On the flip side, the site also lists Green Bay as the best offensive team in the league.
So, who has the edge? When looking at raw efficiency, the Lions rank first in opponent yards per carry on the ground, second in points per game allowed and fifth in opponent passer rating.
The Packers can put their numbers up with Motor City crew, earning marks of the second-best passer rating and 10th-best yards-per-carry average over the course of the first 16 weeks of the season.
Studying the previous games that Green Bay has played, something becomes apparent. Despite their hyper-productive offense, strong defensive lines seem to stall the squad.
When investigating for defensive line production, one must search out metrics for run-stopping, as that's where they do most of their impact. According to Pro Football Focus (Subscription,) the Packers have faced three top-10 run defenses in the New York Jets, the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills.
In those games, Green Bay has averaged 17 points per match on offense, 13 points lower than their season average. They also lost two of those games on the road and narrowly escaped the Jets at home. If they play to their expected projection, the game will be much closer than Vegas' guess of a nine-point game, according to Odds Shark.
The key to the rematch will be the Packers' passing game. While the Lions have a great defensive line, that can be combated by balancing the defense with quick passes. Green Bay's been leaning on Rodgers and newly named Pro Bowl receiver Jordy Nelson all season, so this will be nothing new.
As written only weeks into the season, Green Bay uses various passing concepts to get their playmakers the ball.
"Green Bay has run many, many concepts for big plays to this point in the season. Against Cover 1, Cover 2 and Cover 3, the Packers have proven their ability to call and execute deep plays based on coverage. In the red zone, the Packers have managed to have success in the air, taking advantage of man coverage.
Continuing through 2014, it will be interesting to note if Green Bay's trends continue, such as heavy Levels influence between the 20s and Arrow Slant concepts near the end zone.
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Balancing the defense will be the key; running the ball at what might be the best defensive line in the world may not be the most efficient or practical way to go about doing it. Bypassing the line with pre-snap hot reads for short, quick passes is the way to combat this squad.
Defensive Key: Pressure Matthew Stafford
On defense, while not as strong as the offense, there are still quality matchups. The Packers rank 13th defensively in DVOA, while the Detroit Lions are marked as a below-average team, netting them the 19th score in the league on offense.
One reason for that is Detroit's inability to get their running game going. Now in late December, the Lions have averaged the third-worst yards-per-carry average spanning through 2014. In a pass-heavy offense, this isn't an odd revelation, but it should be noted.
Even through the air, while Matthew Stafford has been good at putting up production throughout his career, he's not necessarily efficient. In 2014, Detroit is 19th in the league in passer rating. Some of that could be attributed to Calvin Johnson being limited by injury at points during the season, but Stafford's 15 interceptions and 43 sacks don't help.
Against the Buccaneers, the Packers pass rush really stepped up their game. Combining for seven sacks, if the crew can generate the type of pressure they were able to last week, Detroit would seem to be slated to cough up the ball or take a drive-changing sack, per their tendencies.
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), only two starting Lions offensive linemen have pass-blocking grades which net them a "green" note, which indicates a grade above plus-1.0. To juxtapose that against the Packers' front line on defense is stark. All five of their on-the-ball starters have positive grades in pass-rushing. Defensive linemen Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, Letroy Guion and outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers make the mark.
From an outside perspective, that looks like the one spot where Green Bay should be absolutely attempting to exploit for 60 minutes on Sunday afternoon. Both Jones and Daniels were appearing as though they'd be the breakout players of this year's Packers team on defense earlier in the season. Although they didn't make the Pro Bowl, like Matthews did, they're still more than good enough to have a heavy impact in the game. Per Pro Football Focus, both members of the tandem rank in the top 11 for pass-rushing 3-4 defensive ends in the league, and Jones does so on fewer than 300 snaps.
If, for some reason, the Lions are able to shut down the Green Bay offense again, at least on the relative scale of how shut down they can be, the offense will need the front seven of the squad to go up to the plate and keep them in the game. All indications point to the penetrators being able to, but fans will still be crossing their fingers on Sunday, hoping for the pass-rushers and defensive coordinator Dom Capers to execute.
Final Thoughts
In a game which could swing the Green Bay Packers' playoff seeding from the sixth seed to the first seed in the NFC, this game holds incredible importance for the team. Needing the win to clinch the NFC North title, the Detroit Lions would need to do something their previous teams haven't done in more than a decade: win at Lambeau Field. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the last time they won in Green Bay was in 1991.
"Rookies Eric Ebron, Richard Rodgers, Davante Adams, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix weren't born Dec. 15, 1991, the last time the Lions won in Green Bay.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 23, 2014"
For Green Bay to rest a week, they'll need to go against trends and preform well against a strong defensive line. With the run game an unlikely option of balance, the Packers could use the quick-strike ability of quarterback Aaron Rodgers to dink and dunk on the Lions.
Defensively, the team needs to pin their ears back. With five starters worthy of getting home on a rush attempt, and depth to keep them fresh, the Packers could net multiple sacks and/or interceptions with the way Matthew Stafford has played in 2014.
If the squad can manage to execute on those two goals, there's a strong chance the crew will have a dozen days to rest before playing their next game at home.
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