Geno Smith Remains Jets' Best Short Term Option Moving Forward
As if it was one final way to remind Rex Ryan of his fate, Geno Smith had his best game as a New York Jets quarterback against the Miami Dolphins.
Smith posted a 158.3 passer rating, the only such performance of any quarterback for the whole season, by completing 20 of 25 passes for 358 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers. He averaged 14.3 yards per attempt and had seven completions that went for at least 15 yards.
While the young quarterback had enjoyed positive days in previous games during his first two seasons in the league, never had he carved a team up for this level of production.
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To compound just how impressive this display was from Smith, he did it against a defense that is designed to not give up big plays. Entering the final week of the season, the Dolphins had given up just 40 20-plus-yard passing plays, good enough for a top-five ranking in that particular statistic.
The Dolphins built that defense on two principles. Firstly, they relied on their excellent pass-rushing defensive line that had accounted for 38 sacks entering Week 17. Secondly, they typically keep their defensive backs backed off the line of scrimmage to force quarterbacks to complete passes underneath and alleviate the pressure on their cornerbacks.
While the Dolphins were able to sack Smith once, they couldn't get consistent pressure because of the Jets' play-calling and the quarterback's ability to execute quickly from the pocket.
Both of Smith's first two big plays came after play action from clean pockets when he released the ball at the perfect time to negate any potential pressure as the pocket closed around him. Neither play went for a touchdown, but both set the offense up in opposition territory.
On 1st-and-10 with Smith in the pistol formation ahead of Chris Ivory, it's no surprise that the Dolphins are in their typical off coverage. Throwing the ball down the field from this situation is supposed to be difficult, but the Jets aren't going to ask their outside receivers to run down either sideline.
Instead, the receivers will work the middle of the field before breaking outside.
Because of Smith's long stride and quick feet, he is comfortable taking deep drops in the pocket after play action. That is what he does on this play, while the Jets give him a completely clean pocket with a seven-man-protection call.
This leaves just three receivers running routes relatively close to each other down the middle of the defense.
After holding the ball long enough to let his receivers develop their routes, Smith steps up into the pocket of space and delivers the ball down the field. His pass is going to a receiver running a deep corner route between two defenders.
Smith is able to fit the ball into a tight window, putting it where only his receiver can catch it after anticipating the route breaking against the coverage.
The play call here highlighted how the Jets coaching staff understood how to attack the Dolphins defense. Marty Mornhinweg called for extra protection, play action and a deep drop to neutralize the Dolphins offensive line, while the route combinations attacked the deep outside area of the defense without running past the cornerbacks in off coverage.
In both execution and design, this was a perfect play for the offense. Smith's second play was somewhat similar.
On this occasion, the Dolphins lined up the older, slower Cortland Finnegan in press coverage against Eric Decker to the bottom of the screen. This is a matchup that was always going to favor the offense and one that was always going to draw the quarterback's attention.
Decker does run past Finnegan with ease, but more significant is what happens in the pocket.
The Dolphins send six players after the quarterback, but the Jets keep six in to protect Smith. That protection holds up well initially, but as Smith holds the ball pressure begins to arrive from the right side of the line. Smith releases the ball comfortably from a pocket of space, but it's important that he let it go when he did.
If Smith had held the ball for a moment longer, he would have been disrupted by the pressure.
Finnegan was playing the deep third in a Cover 3 defense. Therefore, when Decker went down the sideline, he turned back to the quarterback to locate the football. Smith threw the ball ahead of Finnegan, but if the cornerback had been playing a more aggressive coverage he would have been able to play the ball.
Smith's pass hung too much and didn't lead his receiver down the field. If he had done that, Decker would likely have had a touchdown. Even in spite of that, the duo still connected for a big play.
This play was less impressive for Smith than the first one was, but it was still a good play that was executed effectively even if not perfectly. On both of these plays, he released the ball at the right time to avoid pressure. However, early in the third quarter he would make a play while being affected by pressure.
On 3rd-and-4, the Dolphins are threatening a double A-gap blitz with their inside linebackers. Before the snap, Smith motions his running back from the backfield out wide to the left. This motion brings the deep safety down to suggest man coverage while also leaving two defenders on two receiving options to that side.
Smith immediately understands how to diagnose this defense at the snap.
As the defense rushes six players and there is no deep safety, Smith expects man coverage at the snap. As such, he stares down the safety who moved across to cover the running back wide to the left. Both of his receivers to this side of the field are going to be in space, but Smith needs to hold the ball to figure out which one is going to be open.
Smith doesn't panic even though the rush is coming; he keeps his eyes on the soft spot of the defense while dropping backward.
From the slot, Decker beats Finnegan very easily to break toward the sideline. He is initially running directly toward the outside safety, but the outside safety is drawn to the underneath route that brings him infield and away from the sideline.
This gives Decker a free route to space down the sideline, while Smith is able to deliver the ball even while adjusting in the pocket to the pressure arriving in his face.
Despite adjusting in the pocket, Smith leads Decker down the sideline this time and away from Finnegan underneath. Once he catches the ball in stride, Decker is able to run in the long touchdown with relative ease. This was an easy long touchdown for Decker because Smith perfectly executed his assignment.
This is the type of play that highlights Smith's ability. He has always had this ability, especially throwing the ball down the field, but his consistency has been a problem.
In this game, Smith was able to consistently find receivers on short routes, intermediate routes and deep routes while managing different situations. Two of his touchdowns seemingly came from blown coverages, but for the most part it didn't matter much what the Dolphins did well because Smith was able to negate it.
During the final games of his rookie season and during the preseason this year, Smith showed off the same composure that he showed off Sunday.
In a better situation, during a different time, Smith may never have been benched by the Jets. His inconsistency is something that was expected when he was drafted out of West Virginia, and it's also something that typically affects younger quarterbacks while they develop.
Despite the play of Andrew Luck and other quarterbacks in recent times, drafted players at the position do still typically take three years to develop. In Smith's case, he has shown everything you need from the quarterback position except for consistency.
With a new coaching staff and a renewed situation, be that in New York or somewhere else in the NFL, Smith will likely get significantly better. He still may not be an above-average starter, but he shouldn't flame out of the NFL quickly.
Smith could obviously follow the coach and general manager who drafted him out the door, but it doesn't seem like the Jets will have a better option than him entering next season.
The Jets are going to pick sixth in the NFL draft. Unless something unforeseen happens during the draft process, both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota will be off the board at that point. Trading up is always a possibility but an improbability also.
After Winston and Mariota, there isn't a quarterback prospect who is likely to go in the first round of the draft, not least the top 10.
Even if the Jets trade down to draft someone such as Brett Hundley, he won't be a better starter than Smith in 2015. Hundley is more of a project quarterback, an athlete rather than a quarterback who will take time to adjust to the professional game.
In free agency, the most in-demand option is likely to be Mark Sanchez. Needless to say, he isn't going to be an option for the Jets unless desperation sets in. Trading for a Robert Griffin III or Jay Cutler sounds good in theory. But nobody can say for certain that both will be available, and the price paid would hurt the rest of the rebuilding project that is the Jets roster.
Smith is cheap, talented and young. The Jets won't find anything better than him unless they get very lucky before the start of the 2015 season.
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